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Market Update (4 hour)
Risk on mood following the dip in crude oil: US stocks up, USD down but US yields only moving marginally so far as markets once again try to trade on hope even though hope is not a trading strategy.
EURUSD: Needs to move firmly above 1.1400 to break current momentum, so far testing 1.1400, (1.1415-20, 49-55 resistance above it).
EURUSD Daily
After desperatly trying to overcome and failing at 1.15000 today, EURUSD will go for 1.14500 and once takes it out road would be open for Major Support at 1.13950.
Personally I would like a break of it, as it would open a whole new (Old) space all the way till 1.06750 – more realistical level for EURUSD …
Market Update (4 hour)
EURUSD extending low and now dependent on 1.1450 holding to keep focus on 1.15 or door opens further on the downside. Note EURJPY selling (after rising sharply post-BoJ) after USDJPY tested 158 and retreated weighing on the EURUSD.
US500 pivoting 7650 after move above it stalled.
XBRUSD: Market can’t make up its mind although charts show momentum pointed down.
Market Update (1 HOUR)
Feels like the calm before the next storm day (FOMC tomorrow) .
US 10-year 4.996% as it pivots 5.00%/- EURUSD: Inside day but upside again contained by 1.1550-52 (USDJPY underperformer, trading just above 155)
- US500: On the defensive but so far holding .7575 again (see chart) for a double bttom
- XBRUSD: Regaining a bid but facing an obstacle at 110+
Market Update: Daily Charts
EURUSD: Dependent on 1.1500-11 holding or faces a void on the downside. Back above 1.1566 is needed to slow the risk.
US500: As can be seen on this (CFD) chart, the recent low (7580) is key support with a big void below it.
XBRUSD (Bid): Use round numbers (for XTIUSD as well) as pivotal levels (e.g. 100, 105. 110) with 110 a key one to watch as firmly above it would put the major 7 month start of the conflict high at 120.60 on the map.
USDX DAILY: What is needed for a breakout?
For current up momentum to turn into an uptrend, 1.0011 would need to be broken, currently guarded by 9989. This suggests EURUSD (57.6% of the index) would need toi break 1.1500/eStablisH above for USDX to make a run at 1.00+ Look for similar lines, even with different levels, if using DXY.
EURUSD 4 HOUR: Power of “50”
What caught my eye was not the brief break of 1.1641 nor the stall below 1.1660 but the pause just below 1.1650, which is a key pivotal level as it is the 1.15-1.18 midpoint.
To build momentum, 1.1650 would need to become support.
On the downside, 1.1621 and 1.1606 block a return to 1.16.
Forex Market Snapshot
Markets continue to shrug off firming oil prices (but for how long?) where Brent touching $100 per barrel is grabbing headlines.
It may be a matter of a wait-and-see ahead of key events, an expected ECB rate hike Thursday and US inflation reports over the next two days.
In the meantime the dollar is trading a touch softer but so far with limited follow through after EURUSD paused around 1.1650 and USDJPY found support again just below 153.
EURUSD Daily
As called yesterday, EUR made an Up attempt today, but stayed shy of Resistance at 1.16450. Hight at 1.16358 – exactly the same as yesterday!
Now let’s see where we close tonight – Close above 1.16225 would leave us with a Pattern calling for a new push Up tomorrow, and stops behind todays high might lead to break of 1.16450 -open road for 1.16650
Major Support at 1.16150
Market Update
Firm oil prices weighing on risk but so far not by enough to see strong follow through ripple effects elsewhere.
EURUSD, as noted, is still above but so far unable to shake a focus from 1.16.
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Similarly, US500 so far unable to shake a focus from 7700 (on this CFD chart( after trading below it overnight.(Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)
EURUSD 4 HOUR: 1.16 remains a focus
So far unable to shake a focus from 1.1600 after breaking a 6-day pattern yesterday trading around it.
To build momentum off of it, 1.1641 (and then 1.1460), would need to be broken.
Otherwise, trapped within a broader 1.1562-84/1.1641-60 range with a bid (even a weak one) unless 1.16 prints again.
