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USDCAD DAILY – Textbook move
Performing like a textbook with the break of 1.3964 ending thoughts of the downside and targeting 1.4090, making s run at it but so far falling shy with a high at the 1.4050. Now dependent of 1.40 holding as support to keep a bid. Driving factors: US interest rates and drop in crude oil
USDCAD 4 HOUR: Key resistance looms’
Little reaction to CDA AUG CPI, which came in about as expected. CAD also not benefiting from the steady rise in crude oil, which by the way has just moved to a new high for the day.
As this 4 hour chart shows, it has been a one way street from around 1.38, which has broken down momentum but now faces key resistance looming overhead at 1.3940.
USDCAD DAILY: Waiting for the BoC
Trend: Down stalled   Momentum: Short-term up
Trying for a breakout above 1.3910 that would expose 1.3964 as the obstacle to a return t .40 BUT only if it becomes support. Focus goes beyond charts where the BoC is expected to keep rates unchanged (hawkish hold or not?) in contrast to expectations of rate hikes in the U.S. and elsewhere this month.
Market Update: USDCAD vs AUDUSD
What it would take to test/break parity (1.000), which is clearly an obstacle?
Simple algebra:
AUDCAD = USDCAD x AUDUSD
1. USDCAD break, then accelerates above 1.3910 while AUDUSD lags, stays below .7200 (e.g. 1.3950 x .71685)
2. AUDUSD break, accelerates above .7200 while USDCAD lags (e.g. 1.0000 = .7225 x 1.3841)
3. A little of both (e.g. 1.0000 = ..72 x 1.3889
Daily charts: (Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)
USDCAD 4 HOUR: Key resistance looms
With U.S.-Canada trade relations hitting the CAD, let’s take a look at what would accelerate the USDCAD reaction to the upside or keep it contained.
Key level is 1.3910, blocks 1.3929 (38.2%), 1.3964 and 1.3990 (50%)
Below 1.3910 contains the upside with supports at 1.3858 and 1.3820-25 guard a return to 1.38.
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar is starting the week on a firmer note as traders await details of Economic D-Day,
CAD is the underperformer following a USDCAD opening week gap higher after tariff talks broke down, the U.S. imposed 50% duties on selected goods and Canada retaliated. Scroll below for a USDCAD chart and update.
USDCAD 4 HOUR: Opening week gap
Trend: Down
Momentum: Stalled by opening week gap higher
Opening week gap (vs.1 3768 close) so far holding 1.3813 resistance.
Big void above it so use 1.38 as the pivotal level that would need to become support to signal higher
Low at 1.3732 paused 2 pips above our (cited) 1.3730 support
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar seems set to end the week on the defensive as it trades lower ahead of the US open. US bond yields have steadied and stocks are up but talk the U.S. fiscal position, with the total deficit surpassing $40 trillion grabbing headlines and rising, is acting as a weight on the dollar.
- AUD and NZD outperforming,
- USDJPY is weaker after completing a 61.8% retracement (159.11) but is still above 158
- GBPUSD has extended its high, marginally so far, Â through a 1.3658 target
- EURUSD retested its 1.1710 high, holding so far
- USDCAD extended its low but so far holding above 1.3730 support
USDCAD 4 HOUR: Tariffs loom
Momentum shifting to the upside with an open door to 1.3959-64 should 1.3900 (former support) be firmly broken.
if not, upside will be contained.
Note there is a disconnect with firm oil as the focus shifts to New 50% Tariff on Canadian Goods: Section 338 Takes Effect August 19, 2026
Market Update: OIl up, no big ripple effects
USDCAD back below 1.3950 (holding above 1.3925, next target still 1.3900) as it follows firmer crude oil. Forex trading mixed despite higher bond yields, JPY remains the underperformer, firmer GBP outperforms, EURUSD unable to shake a focus from 1.1550
US stocks on sidelines holding a bid but consolidating.
Caught my eye: Oil in U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve falls below 300 million barrels, lowest since 1983
USDCAD paused near 1.3989 for the second time in a week after the recent upside move was reiected near the 20- and 50-perioc SMAs and the 1.4078 barrier. A long-tailed red candlestick in the same region is hinting that sellers may be losing momentum, but buyers need a decisive break above 1.4070-1.4078 to confirm a recovery.
