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USDCAD DAILY: Outside week or reaction to a double top?
One way street up followed by consolidation and now an outside week (key reversal?) or a case can be made for a reaction to a double top as only a new high was made by 1 pip.
In any case, this leaves it dependent on 1.4150-54 holding to check the downside or face a void on the downside.
USDCAD started Friday’s session with mild negative momentum, remaining rangebound at the top of its September upleg, which stalled at an 18- month high of 1.4292 and near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2025-2026 downtrend. With the pair struggling ta clear June’s peak at 1.4246, sellers may gain ground after a relentless four-week rally.
USDCAD 4 HOUR – Waiting for the jobs report
For the lower high
USDCAD 4 HOUR – Waiting for the jobs report
For the lower high to build momentum 1.4200 would need to be broken.
If not, it holds as the bottom of a 1.4200-1.4300 range where the uptrend is consolidating.
Next key focus: Sept jobs report
to build momentum 1.4200 would need to be broken.
If not, it holds as the bottom of a 1.4200-1.4300 range where the uptrend is consolidating.
Next key focus: Sept jobs report
Market Update: Fickle convictions
Firmer oil => firmer yields => stocks losing steam?
USDCAD: Retracement off 1.4293 pausing above 1.42, which needs to hold to contain the downside… above 1.4233 needed to slow risk of down moimentum building
US500: Lower highs bear watching along with 7800
XBRUSD: Futures trading above $100 (last $101.67)
USDCAD DAILY: Fully retraced, now what?
Having fully retraced the move from 1.4247 => 1.3731 (high 1.4258), 1.4247 would need to become support for momentum to build further to the upside. If not, still keeps a bid as long as it stays above 1.,4200 (but less so if 1.4247 does not become support). Note forex market hypersensitivity (and correlations) to moves in US bond yields.
USDCAD DAILY: One way street
It has been a one-way street up from the 1.3730 low over the past 3 weeks (all green candles except one small red one) that has come close to retracing the whole move down from 1.4247 (high 1.4201).
Best hope for the CAD would be if there are month/quarter end flows in its favor
If not, then 1.4200 is pivotal as firmly above would put 1.4247 on the radar.
Supports: 1.4175 (tested), 1.4139, 1.4129
USDCAD DAILY – Textbook move
Performing like a textbook with the break of 1.3964 ending thoughts of the downside and targeting 1.4090, making s run at it but so far falling shy with a high at the 1.4050. Now dependent of 1.40 holding as support to keep a bid. Driving factors: US interest rates and drop in crude oil
USDCAD 4 HOUR: Key resistance looms’
Little reaction to CDA AUG CPI, which came in about as expected. CAD also not benefiting from the steady rise in crude oil, which by the way has just moved to a new high for the day.
As this 4 hour chart shows, it has been a one way street from around 1.38, which has broken down momentum but now faces key resistance looming overhead at 1.3940.
USDCAD DAILY: Waiting for the BoC
Trend: Down stalled Momentum: Short-term up
Trying for a breakout above 1.3910 that would expose 1.3964 as the obstacle to a return t .40 BUT only if it becomes support. Focus goes beyond charts where the BoC is expected to keep rates unchanged (hawkish hold or not?) in contrast to expectations of rate hikes in the U.S. and elsewhere this month.
Market Update: USDCAD vs AUDUSD
What it would take to test/break parity (1.000), which is clearly an obstacle?
Simple algebra:
AUDCAD = USDCAD x AUDUSD
1. USDCAD break, then accelerates above 1.3910 while AUDUSD lags, stays below .7200 (e.g. 1.3950 x .71685)
2. AUDUSD break, accelerates above .7200 while USDCAD lags (e.g. 1.0000 = .7225 x 1.3841)
3. A little of both (e.g. 1.0000 = ..72 x 1.3889
Daily charts: (Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)
USDCAD 4 HOUR: Key resistance looms
With U.S.-Canada trade relations hitting the CAD, let’s take a look at what would accelerate the USDCAD reaction to the upside or keep it contained.
Key level is 1.3910, blocks 1.3929 (38.2%), 1.3964 and 1.3990 (50%)
Below 1.3910 contains the upside with supports at 1.3858 and 1.3820-25 guard a return to 1.38.
