[GVI Forex 2]

Some disappointment it wasn’t a replay of yesterday.

I never trust saying risk off but stocks are a touch lower.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Fed Holds Rates at 5.50%, Trims Down Projections to One From Three Cuts This Year

 

·         Fed holds rates steady at 5.50%.

·         Stocks rocket higher anyway.

·         Fed officials mixed on rate cuts.

 

EURUSD 4h

Pair didn’t come even close to 1.09 and started retracing form the daily high .

Support at 1.08000, 1.07800 and 1.07400

Daily close below 1.08000 would be pretty bearish.

 

[SF Monedge]

In contrast to stocks and Euro squeaking up volume metrics in stocks are decidedly negative.

[GVI Forex 2]

Markets do noit like ucnertainty. Here is an article

Summary

Macron calls early election after far-right surge in EU vote

Finance minister predicts historic impact of French election

Possible hung parliament, risk to Macron’s domestic agenda

Euro and French stocks fall after far-right gains at EU level

PARIS, June 10 (Reuters) – Political parties and business leaders alike tried to figure out what a possible far-right win could mean for France following President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap election after a bruising loss in a European Parliament ballot.

France weighs up prospect of far-right power as countdown to snap election starts

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Samuel Indyk

The expected rightward shift in the European Parliament after a four-day election has still managed to jolt European markets as gains for the far-right in France prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to call a snap parliamentary election.

French bonds and stocks were sold off while the euro dropped as political uncertainty had investors heading for the exits.

Morning Bid: Europe jolted by Macron’s snap election call

[GVI Forex 2]

US jobs post-mortem

Gold closes below 2300
BTC closes below 70000
US 10-year closes 4.43% after trading sub-4.30% pre-data
USD closes higher, commodity currencies hit, EURUSD at 1.08
Stocks close down modestly

[SF Monedge]

Volume/option metrics are still short stocks but stalling here so if you favor being risky and entertaining the offer in Dow futures and/or Euro (currently in the 20’s) this might be a decent area to consider.

[SF Monedge]

This is about where stocks should stall if they are going to.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

After a frenetic week of G7 interest rate cuts, new records for stocks, another scramble for AI and a wave of elections, world markets have frozen awaiting the U.S. employment report.

The May payrolls report comes just ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and most of the labor market updates in recent days have indicated a gradual cooling in employment.

Morning Bid: US check on sub-4% jobless, China imports slow

[SF Monedge]

A component to watch – If JP Morgan holds selling interest at 192 stocks are going straight up for a near term duration and would be sound a reflection of market interest.  Currently 196.90 and under pressure.  It can get there in a day.  Euro would at a minimum benefit in terms of selling being not overly robust.  Some say there is more to trading Euro than your MACD and moving averages.

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, Risk on… bond yields down, stocks ip, dollar trying to follow

[GVI Forex 2]

US yields keep falling => stocks correlating by rising

[SF Monedge]

Yesterday job openings showed decline and today the services index showed expansion.  Services, not manufacturing.  An argument could be made the S/P 500 stops dead near 5350 coming up.  Dxy is still bid factually today overall despite the intra-day pause.  That would transfer to Bitcoin as well since some people amazingly consider it an asset to trade like stocks right now.

[Belgrade Bobby]

GME GameStop Corp (NYSE)

One of my favourite meme stocks – internet is talking about it’s rise and everyone is so excited about it….now comes the cold shower :

See that sharp downward line…that’s called the trend line and is showing you the direction…and it is down.

21.50 is where it has to hold for what you dream of….but…we’ll see

[SF Monedge]

Central Banks are investors also.  They are constant parties and counterparties in swap markets where currencies are exchanged and post Investment Returns.  Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum stated that a net 18% of reserve managers surveyed said they intended to boost exposure to the U.S. dollar in the next 12-24 months, more than any other currency.  Usually when the dollar index is moving north stocks are moving south…would suggest the recent dollar selling bout was a minor cycle not a major cycle.  Is the key word “was” fitting yet?

[GVI Forex 2]

US stocks are on a sugar high… lower yields, ISM Serb=vices PMI bear.

[SF Monedge]

Zero immediate effect from ADP on Nasdaq futures.  I am having difficulty justifying the thought of oil going lower/sustaining value below $72.  Also see no evidence saying stocks are done in the broader picture, only indications it could be.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Any investor trepidation about a slowing U.S. economy is once again being offset by renewed interest rate cut hopes – seeing the third day in row that Wall St stocks have turned around early losses to end higher by the close.

Morning Bid: Dip buying persists, Canada set to ease

[GVI Forex 2]

stocks now correlating with lower yields.

[GVI Forex 2]

It feels more like a new quarter than a new month.

XAUUSD held above 2303

XAGUSD is still sub-30

BTC is above 70k

USDJPY is below 155

USD is otherwise (except vs CHF) up on the day but off earlier highs

Stocks down

Bond yields down

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

With a still-powerful “buy the dip” instinct in stocks, U.S. markets are having a rare bout of jitters about a slowing economy – with Treasury yields, the dollar and oil prices all swooning over the past 24 hours.

Morning Bid: Wall Street’s growth gasp as rates, dollar, oil skid</strong>

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – RISK OFF

US stocks disconnexting from a sharp drop in bond yiuelds, suggesting it is more of a risk OFF move.

Chart is clear, essentially 5200-5300 but have to see how equities react if there are more misses on the US data downside.

[GVI Forex 2]

Disconnect: Yields down, stocks down

[Mtl JP]

IF stocks take a dive …. dlr should “benefit”

slow start to the week should see some turn in the latter half with
BoC on deck on Wednesday
ECB rate decision and
NFP on Friday

[Belgrade Bobby]

GME  (NYSE) GameStop Corp. is considered the king of meme stocks and most of the investing literature that can be found around the stock revolves around its meme feature.

The purpose of this discussion is to present an analysis of the company’s fundamentals beyond its fading meme feature. Indeed, GameStop is a business with shrinking sales and a falling investor base. At a current price-earnings ratio of above 1,000, the potential meme premium in its valuation is unsustainable in the absence of the retail investors’ euphoria that existed in 2021. The business continues to decline and the possibility for the stock to become unlisted at some point in the future is real.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks took a hit after a downside miss in Chicago PMI

See our Economic Calendar

[SF Monedge]

Internals in stocks are bid for the moment pre-next data.

[GVI Forex 2]

With US stocks up sharply during the month of May despite the current setbacks, theory says there should be dollar selling to rebalance forex hedges. As I explain in this article, this is not an exact science but something to be aware of as we trade for month end tomorrow.

So don’t trade with your head stuck in the sand. Just be aware of month-end rebalancing.

Have you ever heard of the term “month-end rebalancing?”

Have you ever heard of the term “month-end rebalancing?”

[SF Monedge]

Interestingly the Russell 2000 Index, which measures the performance of small-cap stocks such as Macy’s and Chesapeake Energy, went straight up today.  The suggestion would be allocation to diversification since no one sector dominates, compared to the S/P 500 which is weighted toward technology.

[GVI Forex 2]

With US stocks up sharply during the month of May despite the current setbacks, theory says there should be dollar selling to rebalance forex hedges. As I explain in this article, this is not an exact science but something to be aware of as we trade for month end tomorrow.

So don’t trade with your head stuck in the sand. Just be aware of month-end rebalancing.

Have you ever heard of the term “month-end rebalancing?”

Have you ever heard of the term “month-end rebalancing?”