[GVI Forex 2]

XTIUSD (WTIUSD) 4 HOUR

One chart says it all for global markets reaction to the ceasefire

[GVI Forex 2]

Iran accepts… Oil  plunges, everything else up (except USDD)

[GVI Forex 2]

[MARKET UPDATE] US equity futures gain at the reopening and WTI crude futures are pressured amid some hopes for an extension after the proposal by Pakistan for a two-week extension, while Trump was said to consider the request

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR

All eyes on the 8 PM EDT deadline and whether there will be a ceasefire reprieve.

For the upside to gain momentum, markets need [positive news, and 6636 firmly broken to expose a risk foe 6697 and 6761.

In any case, fasten your seat belts.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR

Relief rally or more?

All depends on whether hope turns into reality with a ceasefire.

For the upside to gain steam for a run at 25000, 24550 would need to be firmly broken.

[GVI Forex 2]

=Timely article in our blog

Stop Trading on Hope: How Discipline and Risk Management Lead to Consistent Profits

Stop Letting Hope Control Your Trades

[Mtl JP]

I could not dream this up

“US refining giant Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) warned investors that a sharp rise in commodity prices led to a roughly $900 million pre-tax mark-to-market loss on oil derivatives, raising questions about the viability of its debt reduction targets.

– French energy giant TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) has shut production from its offshore Al Khalij oil field in Qatar, losing some 20,000 boe/d of production until the regional security outlook improves.”

[GV World]

NZDUSD

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday and is widely expected to keep the official cash rate unchanged at 2.25%, where it has remained since a cut last November.

RBNZ Governor Anna Breman has said the bank will look through the initial impact of higher energy costs, but remains alert to any signs of these pressures feeding into inflation expectations.

[GV World]

NZDUSD (4HR)

The New Zealand dollar is trading around 0.5708 against the U.S. dollar, just above the January 6 low. Support sits near 0.5680, while resistance is at 0.5736, with stronger levels at 0.5776 and 0.5826. As long as these resistance levels hold, the risk remains to the downside.

[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog: Which oil benchmark to follow (WTI at a [premium vs Brent)

Brent vs WTI: Which Crude Oil Benchmark Should Traders Follow in a Volatile Global Market?

XBRUSD                                                                        XTIUSD

[GV World]

AUDUSD (4HR)

The Australian dollar slipped 0.2% to 0.6902 against the U.S. dollar after gaining 0.5% overnight. Key support is seen at the recent 10-week low of 0.6834, while resistance is around 0.6964.

[Mtl JP]

correlation trade

IF euro holds Hod’s 1.1583 as Res and tilts down

theory says Brent will turn uP

(no guarantee)

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Update

The forex market has disconnected from the risk on/risk off theme with the AUD up (but off its highs) EUR (up) and CHF (down) diverging, suggesting a EURCHF buy order driving the price action while USDJPY has traded more logically, testing 160 as oil ticks up. .

With stocks turning down, it remains toi be seen how long this disconnect will last if the risk off mood sours more although EURUSD keeps its bid while above 1.1550.

[GVI Forex 2]

Risk taking a hit as this headline April 7, 2026 at 1:33 pm (scroll below) seems to be getting more play with oil up and stocks down.

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR

NAS100, not surprisingly, turning more defensive but so far consolidation with supports at 23802 and 23478 needing to hold to keep the downside in check.

[Mtl JP]

no matter what the source

[Mtl JP]

Forex 2 / The Theme is simple:
Either Washington or Tehran caves
IF no cave: and energy infrastructure gets hit …
IF cave: relief rally as oil price goes lower

A “peaceful” path is narrow, frail and highly unlikely

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) 4 hour

The best we can say right now is that US500 will not be trading around this level following Prez T’s deadline tonight.

Market will take its cue from the reaction more than the news and how US500 trades vs, 6500 and 6600.

In the meantime, given the risks, it is hard to see follow through going far on the upside barring news with the deadline coming out after the close.

[GVI Forex 2]

Modest reaction so far…

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Belgrade Bobby]

FX option expiries for 7 April 10am New York cut

EUR/USD at the 1.1500 and 1.1525 levels. They don’t tie to any technical significance but could play some role in terms of limiting price action in the session ahead, depending on the market mood.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Resistance: 1.15850    Support: 1.15350

Close tonight above 1.15450 would call for another push Up tomorrow

Close bellow 1.15350 would signal an end to this Up wave.

[ST London]

Markets are clinging to hope and reacting to any glimmer, no matter what the source.

[Mtl JP]

Profit-making Suggestion – ?? –
thanks Kristalina

‘All roads lead to higher prices and slower growth,’ warns IMF chief as Iran war hits global economy cnbc

– IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva warned Monday that “all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth”.
– Institution says shock will hit poor countries the hardest as war weighs on global oil supply

Higher inflation and weaker growth ahead are inevitable for the global economy as a consequence of the Iran war … “All roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth,”

sounds like a no-brainer

[Mtl JP]

Betting on Oil’s Price
–
seems to be matter of being in tune with who or which headline the markets believes and is betting on:

Offbeat Wall Street research firm says it sent an analyst to Strait of Hormuz. Here’s what they learned cnbc

…”the analyst, whom the firm did not name due to the sensitivity of the activity, found that vessels are still moving through the strait, with traffic picking up in recent days to roughly 15 ships per day, according to the firm’s report posted on Substack. While far below normal levels, the flow suggests the disruption is partial and evolving rather than absolute.

“Tankers passing through four or five a day, completely dark on AIS. The volume, they said, is higher than what the data suggests, and it’s been accelerating in the past couple days through the Qeshm channel,” Citrini’s post said.”…/.

[Adam Global]

🇦🇺 AusUSD stuck inside the trendline 📈 above 0.6900

A breakout might come after USA data release 🤔

[Mtl JP]

US pre-market sentiment, faithful april 7th

In theory, today / tonite  should be an epic time  for degenerate traders

[Adam Global]

EurUsd still rejecting 1.1600 📉

While supporting on 1.1500📈

Right ✅️ now its on 1.15500

[Adam Global]

GBPUSD bouncing off my daily trendline on 1.32800

🤔maybe if i sell 📉 then TP on 1.3200

[Adam Global]

ßitcoin 📉 rejected $70K yet again

[Mtl JP]

Forex 2 / “monsters”   –  who are you refering to ?

[Author]

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