[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks dip, risk-off , fx following

[SF Monedge]

Since the relationship with currencies to US stocks matters, just a note stocks are firmly in a pull back cycle and I don’t see any way that Dow trades above 392 today unless something dramatic happens.  Yields up.  Dow futures holding 39170 so it appears the shorter term cycle is the market wanting to hold stocks against the more significant sell cycle in the index.   DXY is holding the offer overall so it would take something of weight to move it over 104.60 today in my opinion.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks bounced, US bond yields couldn’t get through 4.40% (last 4.353)

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year almost up to 4.40% (4.399%)

Stocks feeling the heat, BTC down, Gold is holding up, and waiting for FX to wake up.

[SF Monedge]

Dow futures have drifted lower overnight but there is limited liquidity below current price.  It is showing in Usd as it is holding, which is consistent.  It is my experience it would require something significant for futures to move down further much, so the potential for futures to hold and Eur to catch a bid are present.  Quite risky though, a Warren Buffet buy when they are selling trade if you have the courage.  Prefer to see the open in stocks and the data on this Monday out of responsibility.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 1-HOUR CHART (for those using SPX500 the rates may differ but chart patterns should be similar)

There seems to be a lot of interest in stocks today so looking through my charts the one-hour chart stood out with a trendline/resistance coinciding at this hour. This is the closest key area on the upside.

With quarter-end approaching, rebalance and end-of-quarter flows will dominate (note US stocks are closed on Friday)

[Mtl JP]

…”since a broader rally begets a healthier rally” …

CNN
More stocks are joining the gangbusters rally. That’s good news for investors

[SF Monedge]

JP – I’m thinking 105 due to slight deterioration of risk appetite across markets.  Commodities, stocks, Euro, even Usd a pinch.  Looks like if 104 survives Monday its 105ish.

[Ab hk]

To be honest, I don’t quite like the new platform. It seems the posting is not as stable.
Gold has been under many concerted effort let’s see how many lies can be covered before the Bubble bursts. First should be stocks.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 15 MInute Chart – rISK oN

When looking at CFDs, different brokers can have different pricing for the same symbol, which makes it hard toi identify specific chart points.

However, charts should look similar, although actual price levels may differ.

In this US500 chart, note how red AT lines dominate, indicating the risk on the upside.

The sharp move-up today has so far passed just below a key resistance line.

Stocks have so far ignored a tick uo in US yields nit the dollar seems to be getting a mild lift from it.

[Swiss Frank]

Hah…. Thanks, I think. Funny day. Just when I thought ok we’re set for some across the board directional follow thru -> Nothing.

Lets review
– Quad witching today.
– US yields higher.
– BoJ guy hints at policy rate change (higher) at next weeks meeting.
– Dovish comments on economy and rates (lower) from ECB guys.

Yet-> JPY weaker, EUR stronger against some flat against others, Copper Silver higher. Not a whole lot of logic found here.

FX market (read EUR) remains as non-comital as it’s been over the last year. I think it’ll stay that way with a bias against the weak links (chf) over the next few weeks.

Stocks I think are running on air which could see a downdraft the next six weeks or so. That said is it really worth trying to time the stock market as in the long run it only goes up.

Bonds not going up any time in the forseeable future. There’s A LOT of people that enjoy earning an effortless 5%……

[SF Monedge]

My overall sense is a bit like this – US tech stocks suffered the largest outflow on record in the week ending March 8 2024.  Virtual confirmation that the Fed will drop govt lending rates in June, which speaks of a moderately slowing economy and inflation cooling due to demand slowing up.  Demand for labor is slowing as well.  Portfolio flows are reducing risk appetite and re-allocating into money market funds, gold, and other assets, including crypto and foreign exchange, so the areas where risk appetite is strong is adjusting gradually…economy should cool a bit in spots coming up.

[GVI Forex 2]

US yields down as stocks turn to risk off

[GVI Forex 2]

US yields down as stocks turn to risk off

[SF Monedge]

S/P 500 futures are either going to form a double top around 5122 today or blow through it to set new levels of price.  5070-80 is the area to hold the bid, nearby contract opened Asia bid but fell to hold a closer in 5090 pivot, currently 5100.  Eur tends to move with US stocks on a risk on/off basis.  10yr yield at 42.70 is right in the middle of the recent range 42.20 – 43.50.  DXY showing much sturdier than yields and showing signs of strength that could stick overall into next week.  Headed into the weekend one might believe the risk appetite would be not so hot with so much geo-political/war risk present.  Currently positioned lightly on the sell side of Usd/Chf from this morning’s high minus 2 pips with a tight stop.

[Swiss Frank]

FX being the dead horse that it is these days…. Not to go into the weeds on stocks but since you brought it up, I really like the long term prospect of gene editing companies. I think they could be the next AI wave. There are a few but 2 I really like LONG TERM are BEAM and CRSP. I am not a stock picker but think these both have something like 10X potential….

BEAM announced earnings today. Thus the big move. Do your own due diligence tho FOR SURE….

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Chastened interest rates markets are now inclined to doubt there will be any U.S. monetary easing in the first half of this year, prompting a minor stepback in record high stock indexes into a new week dominated by the latest critical inflation update.

Morning Bid: Booming stocks step back as PCE hoves into view

[GVI Forex 2]

Quiet end to the week

Stocks off early highs, dollar in ranges, bond yields down

[Belgrade Bobby]

NVIDIA – Whole planet talks about it….it is Viral…it is Hysterical

Even my wife asking about it ( and she couldn’t give a **** about it ) …my younger daughter asks about it ( at least she is just worried if the price for her next generation graphic card will go up )

Till yesterday it was Gold – half a planet bought it on the top….

Now the other half will buy NVIDIA stocks …on the top

Me….I don’t give a flying ****….EUR goes up, EUR goes down…that makes my day…

[Swiss Frank]

Maybe for lack of anything better to do I kinda like adding to silver longs or at least opening with less than a full allocation here. Regardless of whether NVDA beats (or not) maybe stocks correct for a couple months, bonds go down for the wrong reasons, and well, at the end of the day there’s still a lot of liquidity, and its gotta go someplace… Maybe consolidation from May last year sees upside resolution towards 26.00 over the next few weeks/months. Maybe…

[Mtl JP]

froth fear greed
–
Over half of the gains in the S&P 500 so far this year can be ascribed to just three stocks: Microsoft, Meta (aka Facebook) and Nvidia.

[Mtl JP]

who is jamie dimon
–
JPMorgan reported $49.6 billion of net income last year, beating its own record set in 2021.
That marks a higher annual profit than any other firm in US banking history, per Bloomberg.
The bank attributed the record results to a surge in interest income as rates rose through 2023.
a Jamie Dimon keeps winning. JPMorgan just booked a bigger annual profit than any US bank in history.

a celebrated and – maybe envied – banker

[GVI Forex 2]

Another quiet data day on Thursday.

US stocks at record highs.

FX in background

Mixed USD suggests carry trades orcas SF said CHF selling.

[GVI Forex 2]

Quiet start… light data day … a bunch of Fed speakers but pushback is the party line… usd a touch lower… bonds, stocks steady at the moment

[GVI Forex 2]

US launches retaliatory strikes on Iranian-linked militia targets in Iraq and Syria

Expect more such strikes in coming days

(Probably why stocks backed off highs late)

[Swiss Frank]

A friend of mine passes along this thought- Improvements in inflation are largely due to drops in energy. Those are most likely based and done at current levels. Peak in rates was never restrictive enough to slow things down (my thought on that is higher rates only matter in rate sensitive sectors so largely benign. But speaking of rate sensitive sectors watch out for commercial real estate). Going forward watch for rates to retest the highs of last year (his thoughts again- He-s uber bearish bonds), stocks have probably seen their highs at these levels for the next 3-6 months especially with big tech earnings behind now. Fx he didn’t have much conviction other than it’s hard to be bearish the usd against this backdrop. He thinks no rate cuts from the Fed this year. fwiw….

[Anonymous]

10 year 4.018%

FX following but not stocks

[GVI Forex 2]

Bonds up (yields down), stocks down suggests portfolio rebalancing

FX follows bond yields

[GVI Forex 2]

Month end

It is not a science but firmer stocks in the month often see USD selling as fx hedges are adjusted.

[Anonymous]

Goldilocks day

Yields down, stocks up

USD pays notice (down)