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US PRE-MARKET MOVERS: MRVL, NXST, ASTS, QXO/BLD, LLY, ULTA, NXPI
ES -0.5% NQ -0.4% RTY -0.9%
XTIUSD (WTIUSD) 4 HOUR
If the price of oil wasn’t driving other markets I would say look elsewhere to trade.
If trading oil, watch your leverage and trade very short term unless you have a strong stomach and deep pockets.
Meanwhile, keep an eye on $90, which has replaced $100 as the pivotal level.
Key levels: Opening week gap and 82.58 on the downside, 93.95 and 95. 43 on the upside.
Oil 🛢 jumps higher +7.5% this Monday
As tension in the middle east continues 🇮🇷🆚️🇺🇲
With blockade ➕️ closure of the straight
Oil 🪔 is above $90
More talk 🇵🇰🆚️🇮🇷🆚️🇺🇸 were aimed for today or later this week but with tension rising & 🇺🇸 taking a tanker 🛥 talk are facing a jeopardy 📛
On top of it all the fragile cease-fire is ending on Wednesday maybe more talk will commence
XAUUSD (GOLD) DAILY
Unable to shake a focus from 4800, which has printed 4800 for the 5th day in a row
The range over this period has been 4737 (today’s low) and 4888 (Friday high).
This suggests XAUUSD is more of a follower than a leader where follow through should be limited until the pattern around 4800 is firmly broken.
Forex Market Snapshot
Given how many opening week gaps have not followed through during this crisis, it should not be a surprise to see caution at yet another one to start this week.
This has seen opening week gaps filled in EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD while the USDJPY gap remains open. There were no gaps seen in USDCAD and USDCHF.
This leaves the focus on news headlines with forex and other markets following the lead set by crude oul.
This headline has seen a modest pullback in energy and reactiopn elsewhere
BTCUSD 4 HOUR
Retreat from 78359 found support just below 75000 and above key 74533 support (note, leave leeway on chart points rather than fine tuning levels given the volatility in this pair).
So, as mentioned yesterday, watch the risk mood to see how it correlates and use 75-78K as a range until either side is firmly broken (note the bounce from just below 75K)..
Bounce off 75K may have been helped by reports that a new round of talks will take place this week.
Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review)- 20-24th April
See detailed previews
BTCUSD DAILY
While all the talk was about a breakout through 75K, it is the 76K level that was more significant on charts.
The retreat from a 78352 high has revisited 76K (actual level 75981) but given the market focus on 75K, this is the level that needs to hold to keep an underlying bid.
In any case, for BTCUSD momentum to build further, it might take more risk on in equities (and oil) or face a 75K-78K range until either side is broken.
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