[SF Monedge]

Funding overdrafts – The level of daylight overdrafts — when a bank withdraws more money than it has in its account at the Fed.  They recently reached levels and behavior similar to pre-crash conditions of 2019.  A bit concerning, it should be noted that major banks also recently resoundingly passed stress tests which is an offset should shock conditions arise, either sudden or gradual.  Likely temporary.  Also, the two heavy factors of war and elections have not stopped the steady purchasing of US, Euro, and MSCI stocks.

I am fixated on July 15th as having the potential for either strong buying or a shift toward risk off, for a variety of reasons including that fund managers and the like will begin to return from early vacations.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Wall St stocks start the week surfing new records into another earnings season and Federal Reserve testimony, while surprise French election results saw the country’s left-wing thwart Marine Le Pen’s far right and leave a hung parliament there.

Morning Bid: Stocks surfing new highs, French surprise

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yields at the lows, stocks up, fx paying attentuion, GBP still the outperformer (above 1.28)

[GVI Forex 2]

July 3 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell managed to smooth some election-ruffled feathers in bond markets on Tuesday, helping Wall St stocks back to all-time highs as a sweep of labor market soundings are due ahead of the July 4 break.

Morning Bid: New records as jobs scanned, Tesla jumps

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – ALSO  TAKING A BREATHER?

 

Similar to NAS, I read that July is historically a good month for stocks. Time will tell but I think I heard that S&P has traded higher in July for 8 years in a row.

Given the strong move up a pause and consolidation should noy be a surprise. To suggest more than a pause, 5445 on this chart would need to be firmly taken out.

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 DAILY CHART – TAKING A BREATHER?

When we look back perhaps we will say the NAS high was in but looking at this chart, the highlighted level (red arrow) and the trendline would need to be taken out to suggest that this is anything other than a much needed pause and consolidation,

During this first week of a new quarter, suggest taking it one day at a time.

I read that July is historically a good month for stocks, time will tell.

 

[SF Monedge]

UsdChf – As long as 8980 stays relatively (give it a little room) intact the pair is still bid overall.  Better bet might be EurChf if you are thinking short side because, in the end, the FED rate equation has not changed and that favors US Dollar.  The problem is that stocks aren’t visibly rattled headed into the weekend and that bid has not changed either, and Euro is highly correlated with stocks.  Use it as a risk management play because in logical terms, there is an abundance of global risk at present, including the element of terrorism with the US headed into its Independence Day celebration next week.  Wait for the last second so you don’t get juked by some risk hungry larger size entities.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nike – NKE – Just Do It

Nike took a dive

Nike’s Warning Shakes European Footwear Stocks

Nike on Thursday said it expects revenue to be down in the mid-single digits for the year ending May 2025, blaming uneven consumer trends in the European, Middle East and Africa region, and planned declines of classic footwear franchises given fourth-quarter trends. Analysts polled by FactSet expected revenue growth of 1.4%, to $52.11 billion.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 160.44

Testing my carry trade theory if stocks steady and JPY demand eases

Wahtever the case,160.27 support held

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – OUTSIDE DAY

There appears to be some unwinding of short JPY positions into quarter end. I am not privy to the follows but the dip in stocks early on suggests maybe some profit taking on short jpy-long stocks carry trades.

Whatever the case, it would need to close below 160.39 for an outside day key reversal day although I have heard mixed analysis whether this works well in fx.

So far, 160.27 support has been tested.  160.00 is probably more important than any technical level.

Back above 160.50-63 would be needed to cool the risk.

[SF Monedge]

Nikkei futures are still bid which is another indication traders/banks will keep buying stocks post-PCE, just not as aggressively as this quarter and with some partial liquidations of holdings.  Casual portfolio adjustments to hedge along the way is likely to be the catchy tone.

[SF Monedge]

MoF/BoJ are likely waiting for this week’s pivotal US data to conclude and resulting price activity to answer the question of whether to intervene or not.  The bottom line, if I were a bank VP, is the Yen simply must begin to appreciate for the good of the Japan economy.  I believe it will see 150 region inevitably but that is months down the road, so then if you are on the trade the problem to solve becomes efficient scaling in and out along the way (your boss is happy and the bills are paid if you are taking profits).  That is where the endless intra-day battles you endured sharpened your skill levels and you can be pretty good at it.

With reference to the Euro comment and where to position, that is for longs (closer to the low end of a big figure).  If going short, you want to make the throw closer to the high end of a big figure.  Same for Intra-day (.8 vs .2 or just go .5 to make sure you are in the trade).  I am only so confident in the Euro economic performance looking out, and the US is beginning to breathe heavy a little, so being long Euro/stocks is a bit dicey from here but barring something profound the train should keep rolling.

Precision and an awareness of fundamentals both matter.

[SF Monedge]

Shorting UsdYen 106.50 to hold and the buy side of Euro from 0665 to hold with the understanding, especially with Euro there could be a bit of a delay and a bit of a grind that causes one to be patient.  Looking for the 156 region for UsdJpy.  See stocks staying bid overall despite a bit of economic slowing and recent outflows.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nvidia NVDA

Not my style to go with stocks early Europe, but Pre market price and current situation called for it..

Monday Nvidia hit low at 118.00 , support held and now it is Up at 128.75

Look at previous pattern on Feb. 21st-22nd – is this the same ? Might be , taking into account huge jump in volume and volatility.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

In an glimpse at how megacap tails wag the dog, a near half-trillion dollar shakeout in AI-bellwether Nvidia’s (.NVDA), opens new tab market cap in just a week continued to drag on the entire market even though most S&P500 (.SPX), opens new tab stocks ended higher on Monday.

Morning Bid: Nvidia’s half trillion hiccup; Bitcoin, China slide

[GVI Forex 2]

June 25 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

The wave of profit-taking in U.S. Big Tech and AI stocks appears to be gathering momentum, which could depress investor sentiment and risk appetite in Asia on Tuesday even if it is offset by a rotation into cheaper, beaten down sectors.

 

Morning Bid: Tech that – Nvidia slump sours market mood

[GVI Forex 2]

US stocks opening lowwr… fweighed down by Nividia

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Wall Street returns from its midweek break to find record high stocks still chomping at the bit, with overseas monetary easing in focus as the Swiss cut interest rates for the second time this year and the Bank of England decision now awaited.

Morning Bid: Stocks up as Swiss cut again, BoE eyed; yuan slides

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – CARRY TRADES?

 

 

Break of 158.25 leaves a void until the major 160.16 high. Normally this would be a clear path hher but BoJ intervention risk cannot be ignored.

On the downside, expect a very strong bid if 157.25 becomes support although bids likely below the market as long as above 157.50

As I noted this week, putting the pieces of the puzzle together, affirmer stocks and a firmer USDJPY suggest the JPY could be a funding currency of choice for carry trades.

[Mtl JP]

Brian Swint at Marketwatch

European Stock Markets Slip, Asia Gains Amid Fed Rate-Cut Hopes. Treasury Yields Suffer.

The prospect of lower interest rates and the boom in technology stocks in the optimism that artificial intelligence will boost profits is helping markets worldwide. … . … “if conditions continue to ease as expected, an easing of policy later this year would be appropriate.”

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Tech-led Wall Street stocks have sailed to new records again this week, with Tuesday expected to see retail sales return to growth and as nervy European markets calmed for a second day.

Morning Bid: New highs as retail eyed, Europe calms

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – WHERE IS THE BOJ?

 

 

USDJPY so fsr came within 2 pips of its 158.25 high. If broken, there is a void on charts until the 160.16  high. This should put traders on intervention alert but with bids likely lying in wait at lower levels

As I noted yesterday around this time’

If it wasn’t for the BoJ threat one could make a case for a run at 160.

But the threat is there above 158 so expecy caution if approached but support as long as it stays aboive 157, stronger if 157,50 becomes support

This suggests support as long as it trades above 157.50=00

Where is demand coming from?

I am not privy to the flows but firmer stocks and a firmer USDJPY suggest carry trades may be a source of JPY selling.

[GVI Forex 2]

RBA keeps rates unchanged, no hint of rate cut

More BoJ chatter but usdhpy testing 158+ again

French elections in background for now. French stocks open higher.

EURUSD bounce paused below 1.0745

US retail sales out later

[GVI Forex 2]

iT’S NOT BRAIN SURGERY TODAY IF YOU WATCH THE RISK INDICATORS

FRENCH STOCKS BOIUNCE

BOND SPRED COMES IN

EURUSD FIRMS A TOUCH ABOVE 1.0719-20 (LAST AT 1.0722)

[GVI Forex 2]

FEIE

EURUSD more sensitive to the current bounce in French stocks than the last dip.

Last testing 1.0719

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Wall Street stocks and bonds remained relatively buoyant after last week’s action-packed macro week with world markets drawn more to French political uncertainty and the deepening Chinese home price bust.

With trouble brewing overseas, Wall Street stock futures held the line close to last week’s new records on Monday as Goldman Sachs raised its 2024 year-end S&P500 (.SPX), opens new tab target to 5,600 from 5,200 earlier and Friday’s 5,431 close.

Morning Bid: Buoyant US eyes French angst, China home woes

[GVI Forex 2]

FRA40 (CAC40) 30 MINUTE CHART – BACK BELOW 7500

 

 

CAC 40 giving back earlier gains and now is in the red

Noite the correlation with the EURUSD as stocks dipped

[GVI Forex 2]

Note how EURUSD backed off after French stock bounce ran out of steam

French stocks are now down on the year.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD seems to be following a bounce in French stocks off the lows.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks;

Starting off the day in risk off