[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD passed below 1.0895
GBPUSD paused below 1.28
USDJPY paused above 156.50
US stocks opening lower
US bond yields ticking up

US CB Cons Conf up next

[SF Monedge]

The US Bank Index has maintained a near flat participation rate since 8am PST.  This is one of many conditions showing a very limited horizon for the duration of the day in Euro and stocks.

[Belgrade Bobby]

NVDA Nvidia

Nvidia Stock Soars Past $1,000
Chip maker announced a 10-for-1 stock split in bid to make shares more affordable after they jumped 25 times in the last five years.

Nvidia doesn’t care about other stocks…obviously…

 

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4-HOUR CHART –

MEN

LOOK AT WHERE AUDUSD FAILED ON THE UPSIDE (ABOVE THE .6650 LEVEL), WHICH NOW BECOMES A KEY RESISTANCE.

ON THE DOWNSIDE, YOU CAN SEE ON THIS CHART WHERE KEY LEVELS IN THE .65XX LIE.

AUD SEEMS HOSTAGE TO RISK OFF AT THE MOMENT, SO HOW STOCKS TRADE NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A CORRELATION.

CURRENT RISK IS TILTED DOWN.  BUT TO KEEP IT SIMPLE, .6600 SEEMS PIVOTAL IN DETERMINING WHETHER AUD GOES FOR .6579 AND BELOW.

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

MDT Medtronic Plc. (NYSE)

Stocks are mostly down on NYSE, but I am picking up two types : those that had a chance to break higher and failed and those that had no chance…so no surprise…still I enjoy it 😀

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks down … see earlier posts

[SF Monedge]

Bid volume has been creeping in in chunks for about 20 minutes in stocks which is helping Euro hold the 0820 area.  Will it take hold is the question.

[SF Monedge]

Nearby forwards on Euro are bid and outside forwards are heavily being sold.  Further out picture is not strong for stocks.  This and other conditions are affecting Euro, including options/futures.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Monedge – if we put aside my string of loonies and other popular characters (instruments) on the net that I found interesting and silly at the same time, NVIDIA is something of our thing…kind of J

Daily close seems Bullish to me ( and so far I guess you figured out that I follow everything strictly technical) . I avoid getting involved in stocks – too much fundamentals that can swing the other way in a second , but this is textbook example for another leg up situation….your approach with Buy stops above the market follows the suit 😀

We should talk a bit more on the issue of as you call them “meme buys” and try to save at least some of those fans out there – the new generation really need some education ….

NVIDIA 4h

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks lower… must have read Michael’s post.

Watch out if Nvidia doesn’t throw it a lifeline.

[SF Monedge]

GVI – regarding Britain, forward rates for Euro are decidedly on the sell, and for Sterling they are overwhelmingly on the bid.  That is very unlikely to change today.  Market did nothing on this morning’s data.  Stocks are waiting for Nvidia.  The highly moderate bid tone in stocks anticipated pre-market did transpire but overall in a holding pattern.  Could be a 20 point range today in Euro for now likely.  Bought UsdChf last week per our discussion.  So far so good.

[SF Monedge]

The outside contracts in the US 2yr note have transitioned to a slight sell bias overall finally but a bounce from current levels is fully conceivable.  The nearby contracts are flat overall in the larger scheme after running up.  It created a moderate overall sell bias for us last Friday.  Preference going forward is selling runs uphill and the same for Euro as I’ve been noting since last week.  See bids coming in today early, stocks are not done overall.

Doesn’t take the wizard of OZ to see it.

[SF Monedge]

The majority of transactions in EurJpy are taking place between 169.75 and 169.50.  The sell side is dominant obviously, but it shouldn’t take much to see a bid take hold, especially in stocks, which affects Eur in general.  Balance is at 169.65.  Dow futures may be poised to try for 39950 despite the selling overnight.

[SF Monedge]

Monedge views a lot of “internals” including those pertaining to stocks, not only in the US, to find a consensus of market flows.  This morning one thing catching our attention is the Nasdaq 50 index rejecting 3 months highs.  It would arguably require something strong to move Nasdaq up further this week and stick.  This translates to currencies like Euro which are quite largely risk on/off motivated.

[SF Monedge]

Bank stocks are steadily declining following the initial grandma style climb up from the open.  Not favorable to Euro if it sticks.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Partly due to the absence of top-tier economic news this week, world markets have found a relatively calm plateau with stocks near their latest records – and even fizzing metals prices cooling a touch.

Morning Bid: Calm markets hover near highs, metals step back

[SF Monedge]

Most internal metrics with stocks are still on the defensive but the volume ratios are hanging in there so I would not discount the potential for stocks to hold near or below current levels and the Euro in tandem.  Shorts in Eu and Aud were exited this morning.  Overall risk on remains but not strongly to this point.  Preference at Monedge is the long bias when appropriate unless there is widespread adjustment.

[Mtl JP]

One more good reason for highER for longER
–
WSJ
Market Froth Is Getting Extreme. Just Look at Meme Stocks.
– When there’s a lot of money sloshing around the economy, it’s easy for new ideas to attract speculative money—and some of those ideas are just dumb

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10-YEAR TREASURY – NON-CORRELATION DAY

Note the price of bonds is inverse to the yield. 10-year is currently at 4.418%, the high of the day (low for the bond price)

If the forex market was correlating with the yield in bonds it would be a different story today but such is not the case.

Yields up, USD down gold up. stocks mixed.

Note USD was up earlier with firmer yields but has since decoupled.

This chart is using The Amazing Trader and what amazes me, and I created the charting algo, is how it performs with any instrument your broker offers and in any time frame.

Visit The Amazing Trader and take a free trial

[SF Monedge]

We have almost surely reached the high of the day in Nasdaq put to call ratios in my estimate, which should likely be a part of what roughly caps stocks/EU.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Consolidating?

AUDUSD will likely follow the general USD lead on Friday

Key levels are highlighted on this chart, anything within them would just be a consolidation

Judging by the pause above .6650, this level will be pivotal in keeping a bid focused on .67+

Below .6650-55 would put .6628 in play.

Given the way risk on has helped drive the USD lower, keep an eye on US stocks as they could influence the fx market.

[SF Monedge]

Internals in stocks are flatlining, so either stcks and euro pop or drop soon, I may entertain the short side.  All the shorts from last night went fine.

[GVI Forex 2]

6 May 2024 – A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

World stocks (.MIWD000000PUS), opens new tab notched new records and the dollar (.DXY), opens new tab nursed its worst day of the year as fears of an overheating U.S. economy dissipate – stirring hopes that the coast is clearing for Federal Reserve easing at last.

Morning Bid: New highs hold as disinflation resumes, US cools

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Markets seem to have got bored waiting for today’s big U.S. inflation print and stocks zoomed to new records in advance, taking slivers of comfort from Tuesday’s producer price readout and a relatively relaxed Federal Reserve chairman.

Morning Bid: New stock records jump the CPI gun

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Macro markets have basically frozen ahead of this week’s big U.S. inflation releases, with sideshow entertainment provided by a fresh burst in activity in so-called ‘meme stocks’ while earnings updates and deals sagas dominated overseas.

AMERICAS Inflation vigil sees single stock sideshows

[SF Monedge]

Bid/Ask volume ratio in stocks is very low, and very flat.

[SF Monedge]

Vix futures have been sideways for 12 hours with a slight undertow in volume (short side).  Dow covered calls fell off of a cliff around at session end yesterday, since there was zero impetus the odds were stacked that stocks would catch a bid today.  That said there is already an increase in underlying puts to a slight extent which could assist in putting a cap in the gains.  I like your 106 DXY notation earlier Jay.  Result with consideration to many other things could end up being some bit of a continuation in risk appetite only to be followed by an offered scenario in risk coming up I think.  Hence why I am already scaling in the long side of USD from below.

If the mood changes I switch, that simple.

[GVI Forex 2]

US weekly jobless claims rise more than expected

Yields dip, USD dips, stocks pop

Note this is not the BLS survey week

See our Economic Calendar

[SF Monedge]

Shares are being modestly bought.  Euro is behaving modestly sold.  Volume in stocks is negative.  Euro is going with the volume.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Wall Street looks to have brushed off the latest hawkish Federal Reserve noises and Disney’s outsize swoon, with European bourses stalking new records as Sweden becomes the latest G10 central bank to cut interest rates and oil prices plunged.

Morning bid: Stocks buoyant as Sweden cuts, oil skids