[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR – Is the low in?

A case can be made for the low being in after a the low (155.22) paused above major 155.02 support. However, it is a long way to go to confirm with key levels not until above 160 (includes the 200 day mva). Standing in the way is the 200 day mva (157.95 tested) and the risk of a BoJ ambush. This suggests traders will be on intervention alert should USDJPY trade between 158-160,’ From a chart perspective, the rebound is still in the realm of a retracement.

[Adam Global]

USDJPY suffered a sharp four- session📉 decline, plunging from the 40- year high of 164.00 to a three-month low near 155.20 following joint US-Japan intervention.

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: US Opening

Stocks (up), Crude oil (down) both consildating after opening gaps. USD trades mixed as intervention in USDJPY has seen a squeeze not only in USD longs but in short JPY cross positions.

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: USDJPY

With the BoJ looking at the same technicdal indicators that we look at, here are some levels they will be wathcing

157.93 = 200 day mva

FIBOS for 163.98 => 155.22

[Mtl JP]

USDJPY 157.00
–
LIARS FIGURE AND THEIR FIGURES LIE
From link to “Why the U.S. stepped in after decades to prop up Japan’s yen — and what’s at stake” below:

Japan’s finance ministry said Monday it plans to use the FIMA repo facility for future interventions.

what is the “The Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) Repo Facility” ?
It allows eligible institutions that hold U.S. Treasury securities in custody at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to temporarily exchange those securities for dollars.

why: serves as an alternative to selling Treasuries in the open market, helping to stabilize global dollar funding markets and support the smooth functioning of U.S. financial markets

how: The facility has a $60 billion per-counterparty limit and is priced at a premium to private repo rates (initially 25 basis points above the interest on excess reserves) to ensure it is used primarily during times of market stress.

“We should encourage it to be upsized in the coming months,” Bessent , August 2, 2026.

“Japan’s finance ministry said Monday it plans to use the FIMA repo facility for future interventions.”

temporary eh ?

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

The dollar is currently trading firmer after opening the week on a down note:

• One exception is the  JPY although USDJPY is well off its overnight low that paused above a 155.02 target (last 155.22). Offsets from short JPY cross position unwindings (e.g. carry trades) could be supporting the USD elsewhere.
• EURUSD briefly ran stops above 1.1550 (high 1.1559) and the retreat needs to hold above 1.15 to keep a bid.
• GBPUSD has retreated as well after a tepid test above 1.35 (high 1.3503) and needs to hold 1.3400 as support to keep its bid.
• USDCAD trying to establish a biod above 1.4000 that would need to take out 1./4060-68 to build momentum the other way.
• AUDUSD focus is back to ..7000 after pausing at the Power of 50 .7050 level.

[Mtl JP]

USDJPY 155.33
plz mr. secretary … do NOT discourage japan from selling your paper

10-yr 4.698% at 8:54 PM EDT

darn by the time I am ready to hit submit usdyen at 156.12

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR – Intervention alert

Key target: 155.02. Low so far 157.00

Would need to move back above 158 to cool risk. Intervention risk would increase if 160 is threatened or trades

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Closing Snapshot

USDJPY leading as BoJ weighs on it… 155.02 = major support

CHF buxking the trend and weaker on the day, suggesting carry trades switching from JPY to CHF as the funding currency.

[GVI Forex 2]

Firmer US bond yiuelds (not steepening) not cooperating with a weasker USD scenario (EURUSD back belkow 1.15, USDJPY back to 160)

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR – Debate over the BoJ goal

Debate is whether the BoJ is looking to drive USDJPY even lower or establish a 2-way risk.’

If the former, then the BoJ would have hiked interest rates today.

In any case, the 158 level (also around the 200 day mva) has provided a floor and kept the focus on 160 as a pivotal level (also around the 100 day mva). If  this proves to be the case, then 158-162 is a wide range.

Intra-day range 158.52 – 160.82

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

Risk on start to the last day of the month has kept the USD on the defensive but trading mixed with the AUD outperforming and USDJPY falling sharply from a bounce near 161 but so far holding above 158.50 and yesterday’s ;low just below 158.

EURUSD has been unable to extend its high but so far remains above the pivotal 1.15 level.

Some caution should not be a surprise as month end can see erratic forex flows, especially in the run uo to the 4 PM London fixing.

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: USDJPY

See chart for levels.: Major support 155.02

160.07 = 100 day mva

157.85 = 300 day mva (see if 158 proves tough)

My thought: This may have been a pre-emptive strike to deter a JPY selloff after tomorrow’s BoJ decision.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY: Another BoJ ambush

Sudden move from 162.80 =< 160.256 suggests BoJ covert intervention.

With the daily trendline broken, 160.40 would become resistance if the goal is to drive it back to 160 or below.

Note other currencies (and gold) following (i.e. higher)

 

 

 

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Dollar remains on the defensive but so far with limited follow through

• EURUSD tested 1.1482 (high 1.1484) (last 1.1470)
• GBPUSD ran stops above 1.3395 (high 1.3407, last 1.3380)
• USDJPY (BoJ or not?) pause above 162 keeps focus on 163 (last 162.91)
• US bond yields remain up but off earlier highs (10 year last 4.691% vs. 4.712% high)

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR: BoJ ambush?

Sudden USDJPY plunge will likely raise speculation whether it is a BoJ ambush or a large sell order that spooked the market.

No signs of offsets in other currencies argue for a BoJ covert attack

In any case, 163.00 will be pivotal and sub-162 would be needed to build momentum on the downside. Low so far, 162.29.

 

[Mtl JP]

USDJPY 162.28 LoD
sneaking out n taking advantage under the cover of higher 10-yr yield ?
oh glory to the courageous

[Adam Global]

USDJPY slipped📉 earlier today after failing to overcome 164.00 yesterday. Now everyone is waiting for Federal rates news today & japan rates on Friday

[Mtl JP]

USDJPY 163.75-ish
–
Japan’s Takaichi to proceed with food sales tax cut to 1%, Yomiuri reports

rejoice peasants, that is from 8%

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Technicals

[Adam Global]

USDJPY recently climbed 📈to fresh 40-year highs near 164 before easing toward 163.50 levels on Tuesday, supported by the wide US- Japan yield gap ana expectations that the Fed may keep policy restrictive for longer, leaving the broader bullish trend intact. Assuming that Japanese authorities don’t intervene at 164, the next key resistance is seen around the 165.00 region

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

A bit oif a disconnect with softer oil prices (and dip in US yields) while the dollar maintains a generally firm tone but so far with limited follow through.

EUREUSD: Back to about unchanged after holding a test of 1.1361 suppoprt
USDJPY: Filled its opening week gap to 163.85
GBPUSD: Focus still on 1.3300 (bearish below) after breaking down through it yesterday (low 1.3284)
AUDUSD: The underperformer and so far breaking a 9-day pivot around .7000 (bearish) but only confirmed by a break of .6962 (tested, holding so far).

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: Mind the gaps

EURUSD: Came close to filling gap

USDJPY: Gap still open

GBPUSD: Gap filled

Note, this is not an exact science as it depends on what close your broker platform shows.

[Adam Global]

USDJPY is struggling to climb📈 to a fresh 40-year high, trading near 163.70. While the broader uptrend remains intact, overbought conditions suggest buyers may need a period of consolidation before attempting another breakout

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY: Unchartered Waters

Extending 40-year high into unchartered waters, making resistance a guess.

If 163.50 becomes support, then 165 comes on the radar.

BoJ can only slow the move, not reverse it at this time.

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot: Calm before the next storm?

While Middle East hostilities expand, oil continues to rise and US yields follow, the dollar has stayed on the sidelines, trading another lackluster session overnight.>

USDJPY has cautiously extended its 40-year high with fear of triggering a Bo J attack retraining the move.

EURUSD yet to shake a focus from 1.14 after running stops on the upside overnight, which has raised questions whether it is trading bid in n offered market or vice versa.

AUDUSD has extended its pivot around ..7000 for the7th day in a row. Range over this time has been .6965-.7027

Underperformers: NZD, JPY

[Mtl JP]

USDJPY N of 163
–
IF tokyo does not have bessent’s agreement (or even his co-operation) the yakkers might be engineering an intervention through some obscure minor ccy crosses combination to help their dog from drowning

[Adam Global]

USDJPY 📈 Hitting 40- year high as the 🇯🇵 government is under pressure

[Mtl JP]

USDJPY 163.12 as I type
–
Reuters:
Japan imports jump to record high on oil price surge, complicating BOJ policy
Japan exports in June jump 19.3% year/year

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

Firmer crude oil => firmer yields => firmer USD

USDJPY at a new 40-year high. BoJ threat looms but any intervention would find willing buyers below the market. 163.50 is targeted next, if broken then 165 comes on the radar

GBPUSD weaker on firmer EURGBP but upside paused below .8545 resistance, cooling the move.

EURUSD down but clinging to 1.1400 as support

USDCAD extending rebound from 1.40 as fresh tariff threat “Trump’s” firmer crude oil

AUDUSD back toward .7000 after failing to hold above .7020

XAUUSD and BTCUSD getting safe haven flows?