[Mtl JP]

IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
STEADY BUT SLOW: RESILIENCE AMID DIVERGENCE
APRIL 2024

… “the global view can mask stark divergence across countries. The exceptional recent performance of the United States is certainly impressive and a major driver of global growth, but it reflects strong demand factors as well, including a fiscal stance that is out of line with long-term fiscal sustainability (see April 2024 Fiscal Monitor). This raises short-term risks to the disinflation process, as well as longer-term fiscal and financial stability risks for the global economy since it risks pushing up global funding costs. Something will have to give.” …

what and when could that be ?

[SF Monedge]

In long side AudCad low 8850’s, overall trend trade on pull back

[GVI Forex 2]

Michael, when you have time perhaps you can explain the option profile.

[michael Calif]

thanks GVI, we like long-side only in June Euro futures starting Friday Apr 19, per current Option Profile setup  …

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – TRYING TO CORRECT BUT…

Looking at this chart the key level on the upside is clear at 1.0665.

Often, when in a sharp trend, there needs to be a squeeze on weak positions to run some stops )e.g. above 1.0665) before setting a fresh run at a new low or high.

This is the setup after an invisible hand held its finger in the dyke at 1.06.

Whether it materializes or not is still up in the air so just pointing out a risk.

Otherwise, the trend is still your friend.

[michael Calif]

June Gold futures remain a sell above 2400 (starting @2421) from the Feb 14 lows, per Option Profile

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – NO CHANGE

SAME LEVELS AS POSTED EARLIER A CONSOLIDATION CONTINUES BETWEEN 2362-98

[GVI Forex 2]

Heads up — US yields dipping again – could be risk off but no news, just one of those days

[Mtl JP]

Belgrade Bobby 2:52 couple centrifuges ?

[SF Monedge]

Margin impact on the EurChf shorts is minimal so almost surely the right side.  Israel could wait for the weekend in a behind the scenes handshake deal with UK, France, US, Canada to not disturb markets and allow time for assessment before Monday but they will strike when the tactical advantage is determined.  Not today likely.

[GVI Forex 2]

Bobby, I am only the messenger.Equities are lower so maybe someone paid notice.

[GVI Forex 2]

I don’t see the case for a higher EURUSD unless it can firmly trade back above 1.0650. Even then it would only be a correction.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Oh GREAT,,,,we’ll all glow in the dark…

[Mtl JP]

now why would a mossad character trumpet that publicly ?

sounds like “they” – those around the table – are arguing

[GVI Forex 2]

Striking Iran’s nuclear facilities are “on the table” says a former Mossad intelligene chief via Sky news.

Source; Newsquawk.com

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0638
–
this puppys finally calming down a bit from its puke from 1.0950

technically some signs hint at small s/t 10665 potential

I am just an observer; not interested in converting into action

[Belgrade Knez]

does anyone use MT4 platform build 1417 on cell phone?

[michael Calif]

yes, EURUSD rally due any time  …

[SF Monedge]

EurChf looks to have decent R/R around 9710 and already scaling in shorts to see.

[GVI Forex 2]

Thanks SF.

Michael wouldn’t a USDX sell imply a EURUSD rally?

[Mtl JP]

Jay 11:35 // as long as u & market sees a goodly yield gap USD / majors
movement north favors the DLR

I am biased BoD DLRx to 107ish

[SF Monedge]

GV – was watching exactly what you point out.  I’m looking to sell Sterling if it gets close to 125 but so far yes you could see the yield holding and the reaction.  I’m mainly active in AudCad and EurJpy and with the right areas seen UsdJpy.  I know you really don’t like UsdChf but I like the thought of trailing it waiting for a middle east shock, I don’t believe they strike until tomorrow NY time.

[michael Calif]

June 10yr futures remain a buy under 108′ per Option Profile  …  lower rates ahead

[michael Calif]

for us, June USD futures are on sell-only basis above 106.00, per shifting Option Profile

[GVI Forex 2]

Monege, not unless EURUSD can get back above 1.0650. Just made a tepid attempt that did not follow through. As soon as bond yields started to rise the dollar came off its lows. 10-year last 4.542% vs. a low at around 4.612%

[SF Monedge]

Bottom line is Usd is on its back foot although it could hold 106.  Preference is short with a trailing sell entry in UsdChf in case of sudden shock from middle east.

[GVI Forex 2]

In the absence of any news US bond yields are ticking down (10 year 4.622%, -3.9 bps)

Keep an eye whether there is any correlation in FX

[GVI Forex 2]

LOOK AT MY USDX POST (BELOW) AND THEN READ THIS BKOG POST TO SEE WHaT I MEaN (In this case it was offered in a bid market)

What Does it Mean When a Currency Feels “Bid in an Offered Market?”

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX ONE-HOUR CHART – OFFERED IN A BID MARKET

I never used to pay attention to USDX until JP alerted me to its use.

With EURUSD  representing 57.6% of the USDX, it can be used as a semi-proxy for the EURUSD.

In this case, USDX has backed off its high but EURUSD has so far been stymied by 1.0650 after bouncing from an invisible hand protecting 1.06. A more significant resistance area is at 1.0660-65.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h Intraday outlook

The base is formed for try outs to the Upper levels of the Daily Downtrend.

Targets to watch out for are 1.06700 & 1.07200 – all depends on time-space development.

Supports are at 1.06300 & 1.06050

By the pattern that is forming, it is unlikely to see downward follow through right now.

It is more of a possibility to watch Upticks for a day or two.

So base your small time frames trades accordingly .

With no serious data ( except for US Initial Jobless Claims tomorrow ), there is a calm till Friday.

Check out Economic Calendar

[Author]

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