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BOC unchanged as expected… USDCAD dips, following general softer USD tone… so far holding 1.39
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar is trading softer as the forex market follows the lead of surging US equities (CFDS) as hope for a peace agreement (e.g. memorandum of understanding) drives thin holiday (US and UK) trading.
AUD, GBP and CHF are outperforming while the C AD and JPY lag. EURUSD (still below 1.1650) is lagging GBPUSD, which has eyes on 1.35..
Opening week gaps remain unfilled except in USDCAD.
Otherwise, keep an eye on news headlines in this trading
USDCAD a touch higher following an as expected BoC rate decision.
Forex Market Snapshot
Given how many opening week gaps have not followed through during this crisis, it should not be a surprise to see caution at yet another one to start this week.
This has seen opening week gaps filled in EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD while the USDJPY gap remains open. There were no gaps seen in USDCAD and USDCHF.
This leaves the focus on news headlines with forex and other markets following the lead set by crude oul.
Forex Market Snapshot
There seems little choice but to trade defensively ahead of the week end, month/quarter end on Tuesday and a holiday shortened week ahead of the Easter break in what remains a headline (and oil) driven market.
This has seen firmer oil set a modest risk off tone and the dollar trade mixed to a touch firmer (except vs a lagging AUD and NZD).
- EURUSD: Trading within 1.1500-50, downside more exposed while below 1.1550 but contained while above 1.15. Key supports lie below 1.15. (1.1484, 1.1442, 1.1410)
- USDJPY: Trades firm but still yet to crack 160 (BoJ?)
- GBPUSD: Keeping pace with EURUSD. Key support is nit until 1.3234.
- USDCAD: Keeping a bid while above 1.38. Tight range 1.3835-65. So far not benefiting from firmer oil
- AUDUSD: Remains on the defensive but ckagging today and onsolidating within a .6870-.6920
Forex Market Snapshot
With the weekend and month/quarter end approaching, traders have little choice but to play defense to guard against a headline news risk. This has seen US stocks slip, gold dip while crude oil up and the dollar holds firm.
- EURUSD: So far break9ng a 5-day trade around 1.16 (potentially bearish)
- USDJPY: Trading firm within 159-160 with conspiracy theorists saying BoJ likely lurking in attempt to [the top end being breached.
- GBPUSD: L:aging rather than leading and following the EUREUSD lead
- USDCAD: Joining in with a strong bid while above 1.38…faces key resistance at 1.3845 and 1.3928
- AUDUSD: NO longer an outperformer… on the defensive while below .7000… key support 6896
- USDCHF: Still paying notice to SNB intervention threat
USDCAD ticks up on tame CPI
Canadian Inflation Rate YoY (Jan) Y/Y 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.4%, Low. 2.3%, High. 2.6%)
Canadian Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jan) Y/Y 2.6% (Prev. 2.8%)
Canadian Core Inflation Rate MoM (Jan) M/M 0.2% (Prev. -0.4%)
Market Update
Follow through has proved limited (on both sides) across markets following the US jobs report beat.
- US bond yields are off the highs (10 year last 4.172%)
- USD still bid and up on the day but off its highs… USDJPY an exception but staying above its 152.80 low
- USDCAD is closest to its high as talk Trump considering canceling USMCA weighing on the CAD (although it would take Congressional approval to break a treaty)
- US stocks have backed off earlier highs, putting NAS100 focus back on 24800-25000 and US500 back on 6900
- XAUUSD extended its high above 5100 before retreating back into its range.
- Partial government shutdown remains a risk as deadline nears
CAD slips (USDCAD up) on this headline. As always with President Trump, actions speak louder than words or headlines
(Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)
CAD slips (USDCAD up) on this headline. As always with President Trump, actions speak louder than words or headlines
(Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)
Forex Market Snapshot
The forex market continues to struggle to find a common theme to drive trading in the new year. This has seen it struggle to build serious momentum as trading remains choppy.
With that said ranges have been tight so far today with
- EURUSD holding below 1.1650
- USDJPY holding above 158 as it consolidates after trading lower yesterday
- GBPUSD showed little reaction to a positive GDP report
- AUDUSD a touch firmer as US stocks are up aa geopolitical tensions with Iran ease a bit.
- USDCAD is a touch firmer as crude oil prices slip back on easing imminent US threat to attak Iran
- US Weekly Jobless Claims highlight a light calendar
Of all markets, forex algos seem to live to run stops
With the USD trading generally firmer, let’s take a look at its highs for the week as breaks would be needed to run potential stops. Otherwise, expect more chop awaiting Friday’s key events.
- EURUSD 1.1659
- USDJPY 157.30
- GBPUSD 1.3414
- USDCAD 1.3888 (new high set yesterday and extended today)
- AUDUSD 6670
- NZDUSD .5741 (retested today, no stops)
Market Update
Forex: Choppy day as an ISM Services PMI beat was offset by a JOLTS miss. Pivotal levels patterns to watch as the USD tries to catch a bid.
- EURUSD 1.17 (3 days in a row)
- GBPUSD 1.35 (4 days in a row)
- USDCAD 1.38 (CAD a 2026 underperformer)
- USDJPY 157 (former resistance)
US Stocks: Maintaining a firm tone with a brief dip on the ISM Services report met with buying. NAS100 trying to play catchup while US500 is currently back into record high territory =(scroll typo see earlier updates with charts).
XAUUSD: Quick retreat from 4500 has cooled momentum but only sub-4400 would suggest a failure to go after the record 4549 high.
BTCUSD: Disappointing by not benefiting from a risk on mood and dependent on 90K holding to contain the downside
USDCAD UPDATE
- An outperformer (CAD underperforming) so far this year with the pair extending its 2026 high, but so far with limited follow through.
- This leaves 1.38 as the obvious pivotal and bias setting level although only back below 1.3745-55 support would deflect the focus from it.
- Resistance: Intra-day high at 1.,3827 blocks exposing 1.3871.
- It’s early in the day but currently a red candle after 6 consecutive daily (up) green candles.
- Note, one weight on the CAD may the prospect of Venezuela heavy oil on the market in competition with a similar grade produced in Canada.
USDCAD DAILY CHART
The Power of “50” Level is playing out in various places
EURUSD 1.1750
GBPUSD 1.3450
USDCAD 1.3750
AUDUSD 6650
US500 6850
NAS100 25500My Favorite Trading Secret: The Power of the “50” Level
USDJPY UPDATE
- Once again it is the reaction to news that matters along with buy the rumor, sell the fact reaction that has sent USDJPY sharply higher.
- Looking at the chart, the level the MoF/BoJ do not want to see broken is 157.88 as it would open the door for 158 and a void above it. Of course, this assumes they are not happy with the JPY’s direction but in any case, will be concerned over the pace of the move.
- On the downside, 156.94 needs to hold to keep the strong bid. Fallback support is 155.98-156.16.
USDCAD DAILY CHART
USDCAD UPDATE
- USDCAD continues its downtrend that started with last week’s jobs report.
- A failure to hold above 1.3860 following the BoC rate decision along with general USD weakness has seen 1.38 broken.
- If 1.3800 becomes resistance there is a clean path to 1.3715, the target following the breakl of 1.3888
- Back above 1.38 would cool but not negate the risk.
USDCAD DAILY CHART
BoC stays on hold as expected… USDCAD ticks up but limited move .. watch 1.3860 as pivotal (scroll down to see USDCAD update and chart)
(Right click on image to open a full screen in a new tab)
