[Mtl JP]

IF fx requires nerve sometimes and gives u ulcers – fear of losing – then maybe best to change vocation as self-control of fear is about the only thing that one can control. And if you can’t … get a job teaching. as the old saw says

[SF Monedge]

JP – Me too.  Side note I can see Dxy moving under 103.42 on knee jerk flows and if so that is a very nice setup.

[Mtl JP]

monedge 2:12

dlrcad 1.3562 – I am bullish the pair. players expecting 5% rate. If macklem comes out oooh-n-aaah-ing not yet there miawing I am expecting players will take that as hawkish and club some of the eager doves

for me 1.3550/40 needs to hold else its it is my BoD death

[SF Monedge]

Bobby – Lol, indeed.  I think the fear killed mine.

[Belgrade Bobby]

SF – Foreign exchange requires nerve sometimes eh? Just ask my dear Ulcer 😀

[SF Monedge]

GV – I remember that flash crash in 2014 I think it was.  I was on the right side of the fence small purely out of luck and got out fast small +.  That day was intense.  Foreign exchange requires nerve sometimes eh?

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCHF 4-Hour Chart

I get a bout of PTSD even writing about USDCHF so I will just lay out the AT chart levels in this 4-hour chart

You can make a bearish case as long as the .8892 level stays untouched but a break of .8779 and the trendline would be need to confirm the risk has shifted.

[SF Monedge]

JP – Concur.  UsdChf is the pair receiving the lions share of money flow today as was the case yesterday.  10yr yield has been dropping since yesterday which creates a scenario where it would take something significant for 41.0 to be compromised and stick negative.

[Mtl JP]

waller said earlier
–
“I am going to need to see at least another couple more months of inflation data.” “The strength of the economy and the recent data we have received on inflation mean it is appropriate to be patient, careful, methodical, deliberative – pick your favorite synonym. Whatever word you pick, they all translate to one idea: What’s the rush?”

how would you like that be translated ?
– that powell & co will be happy market is aligned with expectations (ie. 3 cuts) OR
– no cut at all in 2024 ?

[Mtl JP]

USDCHF 8844
–
R 8868
S 8828

I am biased: BoD

[SF Monedge]

For UsdCad with the BoC announcement today, if 3535 survives it likely tests the highs of 3605.  If it fails to accelerate there then we should see 3500.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0871
–
r 1.0890
s 1.0850

I am biased: BoD

[Mtl JP]

on deck
–
08:15 – ADP
09:45 – BoC rate
10:00 – Powell
10:30 – BoC pressconf
12:00 – daly
14:00 – beige book
16:15 – kashkari at wsj

[wfakhoury Amman]

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 103.59
–
dlr on down-tilt ahead of jerome
note: his prepared speech is probably floating around wires already

[wfakhoury Amman]

[SF Monedge]

GV – No way I am on the buy side of UsdJpy, even if it takes off uphill, with the BoJ lurking.  For me, its sell buy waves and deploy resting/trailing sell stop entries.

[Belgrade Bobby]

JP – you forgot to add a link to the Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

Triple witching hour at 15:00 GMt (10 AM)

Powell , BoC, JOlTS

Powell: With market expectations now aligned with Fed’s 3 rate cuts the general feeling is that Powell will be content with what financial markets currently expect and that will not want to rock the boat.

As always markets move in a surprise of look to spin an event to fit its view.

BoC status quo expected.

[Belgrade Bobby]

SF – depends what they expect from the Fed to say 🙂 btw, I see another push up in EURUSD – is it limited or not, I have no idea 🙂

[SF Monedge]

Entertaining the sell side of GBPUSD from 2727 and EURUSD m from 0877.  Do not see either pair accelerating substantially from here headed into NY with Fed speak on tap.  Could be a stale day pre-Fed speak.

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.16% at 6:57 AM EST

according to jeff cox:
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell heads to Capitol Hill on Wednesday with markets intent on getting more clarity about how the central bankf plans on proceeding with monetary policy this year.

* Central to the question of how the Fed acts from here on out is its view on inflation and how Powell expresses that.

* Powell’s testimony before Congress comes at a ticklish time for markets: After breaching historic highs, major stock averages have sold off this week.

Fed Chair Powell testifying to House on Wednesday. What investors are expecting

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART: We know the top but will the bottom hold?

The top for now is clear at 150.89

Support at 149.20 forms the bottom of the range, move today paused above it

But the key level is at 148.92

For today, focus is on Fed Chair Powell and how bond yields react will influence how USDJPY trades

Otherwise, 150 remains the ultimate bias setter, and the market likely in a sell on blips if(?) it can stay below it.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD – In my opinion – Straight for 1.09350

[wfakhoury Amman]

[GVI Forex 2]

WFakhoury

I am curious how one trades your signals

Let’s say in Gold

All 1 hour candles with the 2124 example

It closes at 2125 and you buy

it goes to 2225.80 and then reversed to close the hour at 2123.80

Do you stop and reverse?

[wfakhoury Amman]

[wfakhoury Amman]

[wfakhoury Amman]

[wfakhoury Amman]

[Author]

Posts