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Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar is starting the week on a firmer note as traders await details of Economic D-Day,
CAD is the underperformer following a USDCAD opening week gap higher after tariff talks broke down, the U.S. imposed 50% duties on selected goods and Canada retaliated. Scroll below for a USDCAD chart and update.
USDCAD 4 HOUR: Opening week gap
Trend: Down
Momentum: Stalled by opening week gap higher
Opening week gap (vs.1 3768 close) so far holding 1.3813 resistance.
Big void above it so use 1.38 as the pivotal level that would need to become support to signal higher
Low at 1.3732 paused 2 pips above our (cited) 1.3730 support
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar seems set to end the week on the defensive as it trades lower ahead of the US open. US bond yields have steadied and stocks are up but talk the U.S. fiscal position, with the total deficit surpassing $40 trillion grabbing headlines and rising, is acting as a weight on the dollar.
- AUD and NZD outperforming,
- USDJPY is weaker after completing a 61.8% retracement (159.11) but is still above 158
- GBPUSD has extended its high, marginally so far, through a 1.3658 target
- EURUSD retested its 1.1710 high, holding so far
- USDCAD extended its low but so far holding above 1.3730 support
USDCAD 4 HOUR: Tariffs loom
Momentum shifting to the upside with an open door to 1.3959-64 should 1.3900 (former support) be firmly broken.
if not, upside will be contained.
Note there is a disconnect with firm oil as the focus shifts to New 50% Tariff on Canadian Goods: Section 338 Takes Effect August 19, 2026
Market Update: OIl up, no big ripple effects
USDCAD back below 1.3950 (holding above 1.3925, next target still 1.3900) as it follows firmer crude oil. Forex trading mixed despite higher bond yields, JPY remains the underperformer, firmer GBP outperforms, EURUSD unable to shake a focus from 1.1550
US stocks on sidelines holding a bid but consolidating.
Caught my eye: Oil in U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve falls below 300 million barrels, lowest since 1983
USDCAD paused near 1.3989 for the second time in a week after the recent upside move was reiected near the 20- and 50-perioc SMAs and the 1.4078 barrier. A long-tailed red candlestick in the same region is hinting that sellers may be losing momentum, but buyers need a decisive break above 1.4070-1.4078 to confirm a recovery.
EURUSD DAILY: 7 day pattern
Extended its trade around 1.14, which has now traded in each of the past 7 days.
Range over this period has been 1.1353-1.1435, low was set yesterday before a bounce to 1.14.
As can be seen by moves in USDCAD after breaking a 12-day pivot around 1.42 and yesterday’s break of a 9-day pattern around AUDUSD .7000, it pays to keep an eye on EURUSD’s pivot around 1,14, The only difference is that 1.42 and .70 are more important pivotal levels than 1.14.
Onus would seem to be on the bull side to break the pattern as chart shows consolidation but with a greater risk on the downside. Let’s see if the reaction to the FOMC resolves the battle.
Forex Market Snapshot
Mixed bag for the dollar as the forex and other markets turn defensive as escalating US-Iran tensions outweigh diplomatic hopes.
One focus is on the JPY, with USDFJPY pivoting 163 after extending its 40-year high as traders weigh potential for a BoJ response (i.e. higher interest rates and/or intervention).
EURUSD unable to shake a focus from 1.14 but flows out of GBP (i.e. firmer EURGBP) providing modest support while weighing modestly on GBPUSD.
Antipodeans are down slightly while USDCAD pivots 1.41 with one eye on the crude oil market.
Forex Market Snapshot
Firmer crude oil => firmer yields => firmer USD
USDJPY at a new 40-year high. BoJ threat looms but any intervention would find willing buyers below the market. 163.50 is targeted next, if broken then 165 comes on the radar
GBPUSD weaker on firmer EURGBP but upside paused below .8545 resistance, cooling the move.
EURUSD down but clinging to 1.1400 as support
USDCAD extending rebound from 1.40 as fresh tariff threat “Trump’s” firmer crude oil
AUDUSD back toward .7000 after failing to hold above .7020
XAUUSD and BTCUSD getting safe haven flows?
US is imposing additional 50% tariff on certain products of Canada including some USMCA products, to counter Canadian bias against US commerce with respect to alcoholic beverages, dairy, motor vehicles
Additional duties take effect at 00:01EDT/05:01BST on 19th August 2026.
Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 day
USDCAD 4 HOUR – Spikles higher on tariff news
Forex Market SnapshotL Mixed bag as mood turns risk off
- Mixed bag in a run for cover as mood turns risk off.
- AUD underperforming on risk off after failure to regain .7000
- GBPUSD weaker as EURGBP bounces back above .8500.
- ]EURUSD in a tight range, getting some support from EURGBP. but remains beloiw 1.1450\USDJPY remains trapped between 162-163, Trades bid above 162 but BoJ threat remains a deterrent on the upside.
- USDCHF outerforming,
- USDCAD remains defensive but pivotal 1.40 looms as an obstacle ahead of a 1.3950 target.
Light calendar todayt, focus on geopolitics and US equities
Forex Market Snapshot
It is back to square one for most currencies after reboundinbg from a brief USD sell-off overnight. The JPY is an exception as it outperforms but here, too, USDJPY has come off its low although still trading below 162. USDCAD so far breaking a 12 day pattern where 1,42 has traded each day (bearish) but with limited follow after a brief break of the 1.4149 range bottom in what feels like a TGIF end to a choppy, headline filled week.
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar is trasding a touch lower but off earlier lows in cautious trading. What caught my eye is that US bond yields remain elevated despite a risk on tone ahead of the US opening.
GBP continues to benefit from firmer crosses as it trades above 1.34, EURUSD pause just below 1.1450 has cooled its upside while USDJPY remains above 162 but wary of BoJ intervention.
Oner currency to watch is USDCAD, which came into the day pivoing 1.42 for 12 days in a row and has yet to test it today. For momentum to build to the downside, 1.4149 would need to be firmly broken.
USDCAD DAILY
Ready for a breakout as CAD benefits from the spike in crude oil?
The current pattern around 1.42 extended to 12 days in a row but at risk of being broken (tomorrow) if the market can make a firm break of the 1.4149 bottom of its range (next support 1.3950-1.4000)
If not, upside stays limited unless 1.42 prints again with price action subject to the whims of the oil market.
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