[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 4 HOUR: Retracing or more?

Correlation with weaker crude oil

Trend: Downtrend retracing

Momentum: Down broken, up takes over with a strong bid aiming for 1.4106-29 if 1.4060-68 holds as support.

FIBOS for 1.4248 => 1.3991

• 38.2%1.4089
• 50% 1.4120
• 61.8% 1.4150

 

• 

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 4 HOUR: Trying to reverse course?

Tryng to build momentum off the bounce from sub-1.40

For momentum to shift from down to up and away from 1.40, 1.4060-68 would need to be taken out.

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

The dollar is currently trading firmer after opening the week on a down note:

• One exception is the  JPY although USDJPY is well off its overnight low that paused above a 155.02 target (last 155.22). Offsets from short JPY cross position unwindings (e.g. carry trades) could be supporting the USD elsewhere.
• EURUSD briefly ran stops above 1.1550 (high 1.1559) and the retreat needs to hold above 1.15 to keep a bid.
• GBPUSD has retreated as well after a tepid test above 1.35 (high 1.3503) and needs to hold 1.3400 as support to keep its bid.
• USDCAD trying to establish a biod above 1.4000 that would need to take out 1./4060-68 to build momentum the other way.
• AUDUSD focus is back to ..7000 after pausing at the Power of 50 .7050 level.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 4 HOUR – Stops then buying

Break of 1.40 was met with buying after stops run, thus keeping it from making a run at a 1.3950 target.

Currently testing 1.4023, which has flipped from support to resistance but to the break current momentum, a move above 1.4068 would be needed.

[Adam Global]

USDCAD is consolidating within a pennant formation, having found support near the 50-day SMA around 1.4050, with price action attempting to stabilize after recent losses

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY: 7 day pattern

Extended its trade around 1.14, which has now traded in each of the past 7 days.

Range over this period has been 1.1353-1.1435, low was set yesterday before a bounce to 1.14.

As can be seen by moves in USDCAD after breaking a 12-day pivot around 1.42 and yesterday’s break of a 9-day pattern around AUDUSD .7000, it pays to keep an eye on EURUSD’s pivot around 1,14, The only difference is that 1.42 and .70 are more important pivotal levels than 1.14.

Onus would seem to be on the bull side to break the pattern as chart shows consolidation but with a greater risk on the downside. Let’s see if the reaction to the FOMC resolves the battle.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD FIBOS 1.4247 => 1.4006

Trying to build momentum off the back of weaker oil prices but atill can be considered a retracement. (1.4125 = 50% vs. a 1.4129 high).

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

Mixed bag for the dollar as the forex and other markets turn defensive as escalating US-Iran tensions outweigh diplomatic hopes.

One focus is on the JPY, with USDFJPY pivoting 163 after extending its 40-year high as traders weigh potential for a BoJ response (i.e. higher interest rates and/or intervention).

EURUSD unable to shake a focus from 1.14 but flows out of GBP (i.e. firmer EURGBP) providing modest support while weighing modestly on GBPUSD.

Antipodeans are down slightly while USDCAD pivots 1.41 with one eye on the crude oil market.

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

Firmer crude oil => firmer yields => firmer USD

USDJPY at a new 40-year high. BoJ threat looms but any intervention would find willing buyers below the market. 163.50 is targeted next, if broken then 165 comes on the radar

GBPUSD weaker on firmer EURGBP but upside paused below .8545 resistance, cooling the move.

EURUSD down but clinging to 1.1400 as support

USDCAD extending rebound from 1.40 as fresh tariff threat “Trump’s” firmer crude oil

AUDUSD back toward .7000 after failing to hold above .7020

XAUUSD and BTCUSD getting safe haven flows?

[GVI Forex 2]

US is imposing additional 50% tariff on certain products of Canada including some USMCA products, to counter Canadian bias against US commerce with respect to alcoholic beverages, dairy, motor vehicles

Additional duties take effect at 00:01EDT/05:01BST on 19th August 2026.

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USDCAD 4 HOUR – Spikles higher on tariff news

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[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market SnapshotL Mixed bag as mood turns risk off

• Mixed bag in a run for cover as mood turns risk off.
• AUD  underperforming on risk off after failure to regain .7000
• GBPUSD weaker as EURGBP bounces back above .8500.
• ]EURUSD in a tight range, getting some support from EURGBP. but remains beloiw 1.1450\USDJPY remains trapped between 162-163, Trades bid above 162 but BoJ threat remains a deterrent on the upside.
• USDCHF outerforming,
• USDCAD remains defensive but pivotal 1.40 looms as an obstacle ahead of a 1.3950 target.

Light calendar todayt, focus on geopolitics and US equities

[Adam Global]

USDCAD is trying to stabilize near 1.4050 today, after experiencing a sizable 📉drop yesterday that led to the lowest level since mid-June, ahead of today’s BoC decision.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 4 HOUR

With the 12 day pivot around 1.42 likely to be broken today (bearish), USDCAD needs to establish 1.4149 ( range bottom over this period) as resistance to confirm.

Supports remain at 1.4134 and 1.4124 ahead of a void to 1.3950.

Ovetnight low was 1.4136.

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

It is back to square one for most currencies after reboundinbg from a brief USD sell-off overnight. The JPY is an exception as it outperforms but here, too, USDJPY has come off its low although still trading below 162. USDCAD so far breaking a 12 day pattern where 1,42 has traded each day (bearish) but with limited follow after a brief break of the 1.4149 range bottom  in what feels like a TGIF end to a choppy, headline filled  week.

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

The dollar is trasding a touch lower but off earlier lows in cautious trading. What caught my eye is that US bond yields remain elevated despite a risk on tone ahead of the US opening.

GBP continues to benefit from firmer crosses as it trades above 1.34, EURUSD pause just below 1.1450 has cooled its upside while USDJPY remains above 162 but wary of BoJ intervention.

Oner currency to watch is USDCAD, which came into the day pivoing 1.42 for 12 days in a row and has yet to test it today. For momentum to build to the downside, 1.4149 would need to be firmly broken.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD DAILY

Ready for a breakout as CAD benefits from the spike in crude oil?

The current pattern around 1.42 extended to 12 days in a row but at risk of being broken (tomorrow) if the market can make a firm break of the 1.4149 bottom of its range (next support 1.3950-1.4000)

If not, upside stays limited unless 1.42 prints again with price action subject to the whims of the oil market.

[Adam Global]

USDCAD has been consolidating around 1.4200, which represents the highest level since mid- April… today its a bank 🏦 holiday in 🇨🇦 USDCAD 📈 may edge higher

[Adam Global]

USDCAD 📈 USDCAD is rebounding near 1.4000 ahead of the Fed decision today,well above the key ascending trendline

[GVI Forex 2]

BOC unchanged as expected… USDCAD dips, following general softer USD tone… so far holding 1.39

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[Mtl JP]

USDCAD at end of may, looking ahead

things could change massively IF m/east’s 20 million barrels start to flow again

like a pony for my b-day ?

 

[Adam Global]

USDCAD is xpecting GDP release

1.3750 might hold along with the trendline

But if GDP is good for CAD🍁

TRENDLINE will break

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

The dollar is trading softer as the forex market follows the lead of surging US equities (CFDS) as hope for a peace agreement (e.g. memorandum of understanding) drives thin holiday (US and UK) trading.

AUD, GBP and CHF are outperforming while the C AD and JPY lag. EURUSD (still below 1.1650) is lagging GBPUSD, which has eyes on 1.35..

Opening week gaps remain unfilled except in USDCAD.

Otherwise, keep an eye on news headlines in this trading

[Adam Global]

USDCAd is aiming higher 📈 as USD💵 continues to be a loser & everyone is waiting for CAD-retail sales

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD a touch higher following an as expected BoC rate decision.

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[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

Given how many opening week gaps have not followed through during this crisis, it should not be a surprise to see caution at yet another one to start this week.

This has seen opening week gaps filled in EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD while the USDJPY gap remains open. There were no gaps seen in USDCAD and USDCHF.

This leaves the focus on news headlines with forex and other markets following the lead set by crude oul.

[Mtl JP]

usdcad 1.3940 just below 1.3950 Res. and 1.3980

yeballing a break out.

if Y puppy opens up to 1.40 and 1.41

price turning sub 1.3880 would put idea to doubt if not outright nix

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

There seems little choice but to trade defensively ahead of the week end, month/quarter end on Tuesday and a holiday shortened week ahead of the Easter break in what remains a headline (and oil) driven market.

This has seen firmer oil set a modest risk off tone and the dollar trade mixed to a touch firmer (except vs a lagging AUD and NZD).

• EURUSD: Trading within 1.1500-50, downside more exposed while below 1.1550 but contained while above 1.15. Key supports lie below 1.15. (1.1484, 1.1442, 1.1410)
• USDJPY: Trades firm but still yet to crack 160 (BoJ?)
• GBPUSD: Keeping pace with EURUSD. Key support is nit until 1.3234.
• USDCAD: Keeping a bid while above 1.38. Tight range 1.3835-65. So far not benefiting from firmer oil
• AUDUSD: Remains on the defensive but ckagging today and onsolidating within a .6870-.6920

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

With the weekend and month/quarter end approaching, traders have little choice but to play defense to guard against a headline news risk. This has seen US stocks slip, gold dip while crude oil up and the dollar holds firm.

• EURUSD: So far break9ng a 5-day trade around 1.16 (potentially bearish)
• USDJPY: Trading firm within 159-160 with conspiracy theorists saying BoJ likely lurking in attempt to [the top end being breached.
• GBPUSD: L:aging rather than leading and following the EUREUSD lead
• USDCAD: Joining in with a strong bid while above 1.38…faces key resistance at 1.3845 and 1.3928
• AUDUSD: NO longer an outperformer… on the defensive while below .7000… key support 6896
• USDCHF: Still paying notice to SNB intervention threat

[Mtl JP]

USDCAD 1.3667
– BoC’s macklem yaks at bottom of hour (notes already out)
with Q&A

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD ticks up on tame CPI

Canadian Inflation Rate YoY (Jan) Y/Y 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.4%, Low. 2.3%, High. 2.6%)

Canadian Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jan) Y/Y 2.6% (Prev. 2.8%)

Canadian Core Inflation Rate MoM (Jan) M/M 0.2% (Prev. -0.4%)

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