[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOIUR : Eyers still on 30KTrend Short-Term up

Consolidating after the pause below 30K but with a bid as long as it trades above 29K (Thursday low 29110)

 

[Adam Global]

US500 index (cash) has been consolidating in the 7,700-7,740 range yesterday and today, after📈 hitting a fresh all-time high at 7,793 on

Wednesday. Notably, the index has been in an ascending route since July 30, after finding key support at 7,293.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR:  High is in for now?

Trend: Major Up

Momentum: Consolidation or retracement mode

Pause below 7800 suggests high is likely in for now making the current range 7600-7800 with the 7700 midpoint pivotal.

Treat down moves as retracements, at least as long as the trendline holds.

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update

EURUSD: Often the more times a level is tested the weaker it becomes, In this case, 3rd day 1.1560 was tested it held its ground. Now dependent on 1.1526 holding to keep its focus pointiung up and avoid a shift back to 1.15.

US500: Given its meteoric rise into record high territory and then a pause below 7800, some backing an filling should not be a surprise. Question could be who is left to buy? In any case, moves down will likely be treated as retracvements unless sub 7604-24 trades.

XBRUSDL Oil giving few clues as it stays defensive but consolidting above its low.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: One of limits 

EURUSD Paused just below 1.1559

US500: Made a run at 7800 but paused below it and now retreating

XBRUSD: Consolidating after bounce off the low

[Adam Global]

GBPUSD has been edging 📈higher gradually since yesterday, reaching 1.3460, slightly above the 20- period SMA. Interestingly, the pair has been consolidating in the 1.3400-1.3500 range since July 30

[Adam Global]

Gold has been consolidating in the 4,000- 4,200 range since June 19, it is attempting📈 to surpass the 50- day SMA at 4,160. If the jobs report is stronger than expected on Friday  then Feds rate hike expectations may rise, potentially driving 📉gold towards the 3,900-4,000 ared to seek key support.

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update; Wait and see

Markets consolidating in a wait-and-see mode awaiting news on the Strait of Hormuz being reopened. Surprise (although it shouldn’t be) would be if talks stall and there is no confirmation.

US500 eyes are on 7800 and whether it can extend its high towards it.

EURUSD holding a bid but would need to clear 1.1550 to make a run at its 1.1559 high  (HOD 1.1548)

.

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

The forex market has taken a back seat to the surge in stocks, sharp drop in crude oil (although off its lows), lower bond yields and today’s spike higher in gold. This has seen the dollar trade mixed and so far in tight ranges )(NZD the underperformer)..

Worth noting is USDJPY consolidating and trying to hold a bid in the absence of BoJ intervention but remains just below 157.98 (200 day mva)

[Adam Global]

Gold opened 📈higher today at 4,083, it is slidina📉 towards 4,045 and dropping below the 20-SMA at 4,059. In the broad picture, it has beer consolidating in the 4,000-4,120 range since July 23.

[GVI Forex 2]

Feeral Reserve Bank of Atlanta GDPNow forecast

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.

[Mtl JP]

With reference to “Warsh’s Task Force Leadership and Objectives” in 12:42 post
specifically ref Balance Sheet Policy – which includes Federal Reserve repo (Standing Repo Facility)
–
AI investor Leopold Aschenbrenner forced to unwind all public stock positions after steep losses, sources say By David Faber, cnbc

fund grew to as big as $45 billion at the start of July before big losses took hold, according to a person familiar. .. hedge fund has sold all of its public stock holdings ..

Several of the firm’s prime brokers — including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase —have been working with the fund as it seeks to meet margin requirements or reduce positions in an orderly fashion …

[Adam Global]

USDCAD is consolidating within a pennant formation, having found support near the 50-day SMA around 1.4050, with price action attempting to stabilize after recent losses

[Adam Global]

US30 index (cash) has been consolidating in the 52,600-52,900 relatively narrow range, after posting a significant rebound from 51,555,

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY: 7 day pattern

Extended its trade around 1.14, which has now traded in each of the past 7 days.

Range over this period has been 1.1353-1.1435, low was set yesterday before a bounce to 1.14.

As can be seen by moves in USDCAD after breaking a 12-day pivot around 1.42 and yesterday’s break of a 9-day pattern around AUDUSD .7000, it pays to keep an eye on EURUSD’s pivot around 1,14, The only difference is that 1.42 and .70 are more important pivotal levels than 1.14.

Onus would seem to be on the bull side to break the pattern as chart shows consolidation but with a greater risk on the downside. Let’s see if the reaction to the FOMC resolves the battle.

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: Indices

US500: Pause above 7375 keeps the current range intact but only back above 7490-00 would make the bounce anything other than consolidation.

NAS100: The weak link in US equities with the spike low top 27444 having potential to be a low of at least a pause but only confirmed if 28000-200 is regained.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US30 (DJIA) DAILY: And the winner is?

Big winner today but still consolidating and would need to establish 52800-53000 as support to put the record 54371 high in play again.

On the downside, keeps a bid as long as support within 51-52K holds.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR: Support holds

Pause above 7375 maintains the current range but to make the bounce anything more than a retracement or consolidation, .7490-7500+ would be needed.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) DAILY: After the whipsaw, still consolidating

Holding off a run at its downside after failing to test 7500 with a pause just above 7374 support (July low).to maintain the current range and not confirm a breakdown in NAS100.

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update

With gaps filled (e.g. EURUSD) and more than filled (e.g. stocks) while crude oil has come off its low but a long way to the gap it feels like it may be a consolidation for the US afternoon.

Not shown, key focus for stocks is on NAS100 28K, currently below it.

EURUSD                                US500                             XBRUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

BTCUSD DAILY: Bulls hoping

Failure to test 67000 has seen 63679 support tested (low 63447) to keep bulls hopes alive. To build momentum, a solid 67K+ would be needed.

The level that would see bulls run for cover would be a break of 61235, suggesting current range is 61-67K with BTCUSD on again off again correlation with the risk on/off mood.

[Mtl JP]

Forex 2 – how about a subtly timely reminder article on “inflation is choice”
Forget gasoline: This overlooked fuel could raise the price of nearly everything you buy
By Amanda Macias – foxbusiness

Diesel prices surged from $3.56 to $5.13 per gallon since the Iran conflict began, threatening to raise the prices of groceries and everyday essentials.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Weekly

End of the week, but no resolution – 1.13450 represents the Major Support. We have two options here for the next week: 1. Bounce from here and break above 1.14500 – EUR would be back to Bullish mode 2. Break bellow 1.13450 – open space all the way to 1.06500 Watch for possible Gap early Monday morning…

[Adam Global]

USDJPY is struggling to climb📈 to a fresh 40-year high, trading near 163.70. While the broader uptrend remains intact, overbought conditions suggest buyers may need a period of consolidation before attempting another breakout

[GVI Forex 2]

 

COMING UP: Data: South Korean GDP (Q2), Australian Jobs Report (Jun), Canadian Retail Sales (May), US Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/18), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (Jul).

Events: CBRT Policy Announcement (Jul), ECB Policy Announcement (Jul), SARB Policy Announcement (Jul). Speakers: ECB President Lagarde. Supply: UK, US.

Earnings: Intel, Blackstone, Lockheed Martin, RTX, TotalEnergies, BNP Paribas, STMicroelectronics, Thales, SAP, Roche, Nokia, Repsol (Newsquawk.com)

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Stocks meander with tech sold ahead of key earnings

SNAPSHOT: Equities flat/down, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar flat, Gold up

REAR VIEW: Trump says will hit Iranian bridges/power if Iran shoots at a ship in Hormuz; Iran threatens attacks on energy infrastructure if its bridges/power is hit; BoJ is said to be open to a hike faster than every six months; EIA crude stocks show surprise build, however, SPR draws continue; Mixed UK inflation; GEV earnings miss; AMD and Anthropic sign chip deal; OpenAI reportedly raises projected cloud spend; Qatar Energy reportedly preparing to extend LNG force majeure into October; Weak US 20yr bond auction; Trump admin weighing military action in Mali.

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: XAUUSD vs. BTCUSD

XAUUSD taking the lead (4 green up candles in a row) with the move above 4138 needing to hold to expose 4180 and the key 4202-20 zone above it. Anything other than 4200+ would disappoint and maintain the current rsnge.

If not, then fallback support is at 4080-00 with the key 4044 level below it.

BTCUSD (consolidating): Keeping a bid while above 65534 (use 65K as a fallback) but upside would need to take out 67212 (and 68K) for momentum to accelerate. Anything other than a break if 67222 would be considered a disappointment.

If not, then dependent on 63684 to maintain current risk and keep the downside in check.

XAUUSD                                                                     BTCUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: Indices

US stocks likely in a holding pattern awaiting a slew of key earnings reports lster today.

Meanwhile, the battle to regain US7500 and NAS100 29k continues with a failure to hold above each cooling the upside, leaving both consolidating.

US500 needs to hold 7466 to avoid down momentum taking over. Same for NAS100 28515.

US500                                                         NAS100

[GVI Forex 2]

MNarket Update: Puzzle pieces

Checklist

• USD: Mixed in tight ranges, limited follow through so far
• US stocks: Consolidating with US500 and NAS100 back below 7500 and 29K, respectively. Waiting for slew of earnings.
• Crude oil: XBRUSD extending move up but off overnight high
• US yields: Remain firm but down slightly after rising yesterday

EURUSD                               US500                            XBRUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

Maket Update: Indices

US stocks trying to shake off firmer oil but with limited follow through unless UIS 7500 and/or NAS100 29K (tested) are solidly regained.

US500                                                                          NAS100