[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4-HOUR CHART – Consolidation or Correction?

The market has started out in typical pre-Easter week fashion with some position adjustments dominating.

AUDUSD failure to test .6500 has seen a modest retracement that would need to take out .6577 to give it some legs.

Otherwise, expect some choppy consolidation trading while within .6599094 and .6577.

[Forex Cycle]

USDCHF Analysis: Consolidation and Support Levels

USDCHF has maintained its position above the ascending trend line on the 4-hour chart, indicating that the pair is still in an uptrend starting from 0.8729. The upward movement from 0.8729 has reached as high as 0.9019.

The subsequent retracement from 0.9019 suggests that the pair is currently undergoing a period of consolidation for the uptrend. It is expected that the pair will trade within the range of 0.8900 and 0.9019 in the coming days.

If the support level of 0.8900 remains unbroken, the bullish trend could be expected to resume, with a breakout above the 0.9019 resistance level potentially triggering another upward movement towards 0.9100 and 0.9180.

On the downside, a breakdown below the 0.8900 support level could indicate that a longer period of consolidation for the uptrend starting from 0.8729 is necessary. In this scenario, the pair would likely find support at the rising trend line on the 4-hour chart.

It is important to note that only a decisive break below the trend line support would suggest the potential completion of the current uptrend.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – CONSOLIDATION?

With Goldman raising its 3-month USDJPY forecast (see prior post), let’s take a look at a 4-hour USDJPY chart.

With 151.90 remaining the major resistance (shown on a daily chart), currently protected by 1.5181-86, the current range is consolidating between 150/152, with 151 acting as a neutral midpoint.

The key support is at 150.26. above it keeps 151.90 in play, a stronger risk if 151.00 can become support.

The reason that I looked at the range as consolidation is that the upcoming week is not a normal one

Pre-Easter week and a 4-day long weekend break

A week normally dominated by position adjustment rather than aggressive positioning

Light economic calendar, highlight Friday’s US PCE report

Month/quarter end for many on Thursday with markets closed on Friday-Monday

The actual quarter end is Friday

[Forex Cycle]

USDJPY Analysis: Pullback and Support Levels

USDJPY has experienced a retracement from 151.81 to a low of 150.26, with the pair now testing the support of the ascending trend line on the 4-hour chart.

If the trend line support remains unbroken, the current pullback from 150.26 could be interpreted as a period of consolidation for the uptrend starting from 146.47. In this scenario, there is still potential for further upward movement towards the 170.00 area after the consolidation phase.

The key support level to monitor is at 150.26. If the price falls below this level, it could indicate the potential completion of the uptrend that initiated from 146.47, with the next target set at the 149.00 area.

[SF Monedge]

My colleagues are of the view June USD and June Yen futures remain Buyer controlled, so the view is any price dips can be confidently bought.  Conversely June Euro and Pound futures remain Seller controlled and so any rallies can be confidently sold.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HIOUR CHART

I was asked to post an XAUUSD chart so here goes as well…

The bounce from solid 2145 support has broken 2172, suggesting an end to the retracement.

However, as the chart shows there is still layers of resistance *blue) ahead of the 2195 key high.

Looking at this chart, support is at 2164-72, which needs to hold to keep the focus on 2195 and away from 2145.

[Swiss Frank]

To give some perspective to the importance of who heads the SNB following Jordan who was a strong advocate of currency management, in 2022 the SNB sold foreign currencies worth 22.3 bio CHF. In 2023 under Jordan’s strong CHF policy they sold 132.9 bio chf of foreign currencies (buying CHF). Any step back from the strong CHF policy should have a super size impact….

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/swiss-national-bank-sold-forex-worth-nearly-150-billion-2023-2024-03-19/

[wfakhoury Amman]

Gold is in a buy mood to reach 2161.70, as confirmed.
2154.80 is the consolidation level; buy below it, sell above it, and tp at it.
____________________________________
2154.80 Reached from 2160.30

[Forex Cycle]

USDJPY Analysis: Breakout and Potential for Further Upside Movement

USDJPY has successfully surpassed the 150.88 resistance level, with the upward movement from 146.47 extending to a peak of 151.33.

As long as the price remains above the ascending trend line on the 4-hour chart, there is still potential for additional upward movement in the upcoming days, with the next target estimated around 160.00.

The initial support level to monitor is at 150.35. If the price breaks below this level, it could suggest a period of consolidation for the uptrend starting from 146.47, with the pair likely finding support at the rising trend line.

A decisive break below the support provided by the trend line could indicate the potential completion of the current uptrend.

[wfakhoury Amman]

Gold is in a buy mood to reach 2161.70, as confirmed.
2154.80 is the consolidation level; buy below it, sell above it, and tp at it.

[SF Monedge]

Currently in our view June USDollar and June Yen futures remain Buyer controlled; any price dips can be confidently bought.  Conversely June Euro and June British Pound futures remain Seller controlled; any price rallies can be confidently sold

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDJPY 4 HOUR CHART

With the focus to start the week on the BoJ, let’s look at active JPY crosses.

AUDJPY range is clear at 96.89-98.21

Consolidation range within it 97.24-97.96

Only a break of the wider range would give a signal on AUDJPY

Scroll below this post for a BoJ alert and aUSDJPY update.

[wfakhoury Amman]

GBPUSD signal for the coming week:
price will consolidate between 12810 and 12690. Any rise or decline in the consolidation area will return to it.
Mostly into the sell mood until it reaches 12690.

[GVI Forex 2]

Next up

US RETAIL SALES (THU): US retail sales are expected to rise +0.3% M/M (prev. -0.8%), and the ex-autos measure is seen rising +0.3% M/M too (prev. -0.6%). Bank of America’s Consumer Checkpoint update for February notes that weather conditions were largely to blame for the weakness in January, but where the weather was better, spending was resilient, and in the later part of January, total card spending per household rebounded across the country. The bank notes that while consumer confidence has rebounded recently, it remains relatively weak given the consumer has been resilient over the last year and the labour market has been solid, likely a result of ‘sticker shock’ from higher prices. But ahead, BofA says that “as the rate of inflation comes down, this sticker shock should begin to fade, particularly as aftertax wages and salaries growth remains healthy for low and middle-income households in our data,” adding that “consumers’ savings buffers remain elevated and shows no significant sign that people are tapping into their longer-term retirement savings.”Newsquawk.com

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 1-HOUR CHART

With the retracement holding the pivotal 2150 level, XAUUSD is trying to make another run at the upside.

However, to challenge the high, 2182-86+ needs to trade. Otherwise consolidation within 2150-2195 until eirther side breaks.

In the meantime expect support as long as 2161-66 and the trendline holds.

[Forex Cycle]

AUDUSD Analysis: Uptrend Continuation and Key Levels

AUDUSD continues its upward trajectory from 0.6477, with the recent retracement from 0.6667 likely representing a period of consolidation within the uptrend.

As long as the support at 0.6584 remains intact, the uptrend is anticipated to resume, potentially leading to a further ascent towards the 0.6750 region.

The initial resistance level to monitor is at 0.6640. A successful breakout above this level could propel the price towards testing the 0.6667 resistance. Subsequent breakthrough above 0.6667 would set the stage for a push towards 0.6750.

Conversely, a breakdown below the 0.6584 support level would signal a potential completion of the upward movement at 0.6667, potentially resulting in a decline towards the 0.6500 level.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Monedge, you brought back some memories 😀

It was mid 90’s and I was on the desk of a Middle Eastern bank – off shore outfit ..

We had a Forex dealing desk , and had regular clients – HNWI – we called them High Net worth Individual Suckers , but some of them became  good friends.

Between tens of different stories ( each man had a story to tell 😀 , two cannot be forgotten :

One had a Nickname – Goddammit , I Should Sold it, and the other was called behind his back – BOBBY , BUT WHY NOW ??

Such a fond memories 😀

[Mtl JP]

maybe get on with technological times and offer kitchen sink: hand clapping, applause, cheer etc for the isolated lonely hearts to help with engaging in social interaction with faceless “friends”

[SF Monedge]

AudCad is targeting 8930/40 area to see what is there.  If it fails it will dump straight to8890.  On the buy side from 8808 and riding locked in.  In activity like this it likely fails if it gets up there without solid supporting conditions including fundamentals.  Nobody else is posting and Monedge is very active so why not.  If you are new to this, some of us currency traders are very active.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4-Hour Chart – Retracement or Consolidation?

The market is trying to retrace but pressures only build if 1.0917 is firmly taken out (so far just briefly). If broken there is little on this chart until 1.0867 (suggests 1.09 will be important). Needs to stay below 1.0946 to keep a retracement risk alive

On the upside, if the retracement fails to build steam, look for consolidation unless Friday’s high at 1.0981 is taken out.

Expect cautious trading ahead of the next key event risk, US CPI on Tuesday.

What Is Consolidation?

Consolidation in technical analysis refers to an asset oscillating between a well-defined pattern of trading levels. Consolidation is generally interpreted as market indecisiveness, which ends when the asset’s price moves above or below the trading pattern…. Investopedia

In simple terms, it means trading within well-defined support and resistance levels until either side breaks.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART

Consolidating with a clear 2168-2195 range.

To suggest a retracement risk, the trendline and 2158 would need to be taken out.

[Forex Cycle]

USDJPY Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Potential Scenarios

USDJPY’s downward momentum from 150.88 has extended to a low of 146.47, currently testing the support level at 145.89.

The initial resistance level is located at 147.25. As long as this resistance level remains intact, the downside move is likely to persist. A potential breakdown below the 145.89 support level might trigger further downside movement towards the 144.30 area.

On the upside, a decisive breakout above the resistance level at 147.25 would suggest that consolidation for the downtrend is underway, with the pair potentially encountering resistance around the 148.00 region.

[SF Monedge]

Long Usd vs Singapore Dollar and Mexican Peso filled almost at absolute bottom post data, will hold for fun.  At times I trade crosses approaching data to stay out of wild activity.  I’m riding a Gbp/Chf from Wednesday at 1.2225 and am likely to exit any time here, see it settling around 1.1250 around end of day likely.  Light positions.  Bailed last night on Aud and Gbp sells with a squeaky gain, didn’t look good at all, those were testers.  Still see Usd pulling up a bit overall but obviously the dynamic has shifted to the sell side.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART: MELTDOWN

Red AT support lines are being broken like Swiss cheese in a market likely thinned awaiting the US jobs report today.

With consolidation around 148 failing to last, the break of 147.61 leaves a void until 145.90.

On the upside, resistance is now between 147.61=148.00. Only back above 148 would deflect the risk

From the earlier Reuters article, suggests a limited USDJPY upside ahead of the BoJ meeting:

Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials have begun ramping up their hawkish rhetoric and shown increasing confidence that the Japanese economy was moving towards the BOJ’s 2% inflation target, just ahead of the central bank’s March 18-19 policy meeting.

 

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.16% at 6:57 AM EST

according to jeff cox:
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell heads to Capitol Hill on Wednesday with markets intent on getting more clarity about how the central bankf plans on proceeding with monetary policy this year.

* Central to the question of how the Fed acts from here on out is its view on inflation and how Powell expresses that.

* Powell’s testimony before Congress comes at a ticklish time for markets: After breaching historic highs, major stock averages have sold off this week.

Fed Chair Powell testifying to House on Wednesday. What investors are expecting

[Trader Nomad]

BTCUSD is testing 64K quite a bit faster than everyone expected back in January-February. The strong distribution is once again transitioning into consolidation. At the moment, intermediate and global targets are 64900, 67800 and 69000.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCHF 1-Hour Chart

USDCHF consolidating between .8800-500, broader .88-.89

Meanwhile, the bounce from just above .88 has comes close to an initial target at .8848

Low expectations day although a firm break of .8848-60 would out .8893 in play again/.

[Forex Cycle]

USDCHF Analysis: Consolidation Phase Continues, Key Levels to Monitor

Following a touch of the 0.8885 resistance level, USDCHF retraced from 0.8892 and has since been consolidating for the uptrend originating from 0.8550.

As long as the critical support level at 0.8742 remains intact, the uptrend is likely to resume. A breakthrough of the 0.8892 resistance level could propel the price towards the 0.9000 area.

Conversely, a breach below the 0.8742 support level would signal the completion of the upward movement at 0.8892. In such a scenario, the next target area would be around 0.8600.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY 1-Hour Chart

Two red lines drawn from yesterday’s 161.68 low indicated a change in direction

Key resistance 163.41 and 163.72

Currently consolidating within the outside candle at 162.33-1.63.00 with a better bid.

[Forex Cycle]

EURUSD Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch

The EURUSD pair is currently testing the 1.0789 support level once again. A breakdown below this level would suggest that the upside move from 1.0694 has concluded at 1.0887. In such a scenario, the next target levels would be at 1.0750, followed by 1.0694.

However, if the 1.0789 support level holds, the pullback from 1.0887 could potentially be a consolidation phase for the uptrend from 1.0694. In this case, another rise towards the 1.0950 level is still possible after the consolidation.

The initial resistance level is at 1.0840. A breakthrough of this level could potentially take the price to the next resistance level at 1.0887. Above this level, the price could aim for 1.0950.