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What’s Hot and Waht’s Not?
What’s hot?
All currencies although off earlier highs.
GOLD but unable to get through 3252, focus on staying above 3202 (gap)
What’s not?
The USD is weaker although off earlier lows.. pivotal levels to watch: EURUSD 1.1250, USDJPY 145
U.S. stocks down although off earlier lows
US bonds down (higher yields) but off earlier lows
US Dollar Fall Early Monday, Fed Speeches, Housing Data in Focus
The US dollar fell against its major trading partners early Monday as the focus turned to April’s home sales data and a string of appearances by Federal Reserve officials.
Monday’s schedule includes appearances at the 29th Annual Financial Markets Conference, where Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic is scheduled to speak at 8:30 am ET, Fed Board of Governors Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson at 8:45 am ET, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan is scheduled to moderate a panel at 1:15 pm ET. New York Fed President John Williams is also due to speak at 8:45 am ET, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is scheduled to speak at 1:30 pm ET.
The only data due for release on Monday is the leading indicators report for April at 10:00 am ET.
EURUSDrose to 1.1277 from 1.1151 at the Friday US close and 1.1202 at the same time Friday morning. Eurozone consumer prices rose as expected in April, according to data released earlier Monday. The next European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for June 4-5.
GBPUSDÂ rose to 1.3386 from 1.3276 at the Friday US close and 1.3295 at the same time Friday morning. There are no UK data on Monday’s schedule. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for June 19.
USDJPYÂ fell to 144.9221 from 145.9132 at the Friday US close and 145.6082 at the same time Friday morning. Japanese services purchases by businesses rose in March, according to data released overnight. The next Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for June 16-17.
USDCADÂ fell to 1.3945 from 1.3976 at the Friday US close and 1.3964 at the same time Friday morning. Monday is a holiday in Canada, so there are no data on the schedule. The next Bank of Canada meeting is scheduled for June 4.
EURUSD Chart
USDCAD Weekly
Resistances: 1.39850, 1.40150 & 1.41500
Supports: 1.39100, 1.38750 & 1.37150
To be able to break Up again, USDCAD has to hold on 1.39100 – lowest.
Otherwise it will continue downwards and endanger the channel support line at 1.37150
In my opinion – on the long run – it is going to 1.20 area.
But that’s just my opinion and if in some crazy development 1.37100 provides a footing, Loonie will turn again.
Words will not smooth concerns although stocks and bonds (yields down) have blipped up… now see if the USD follows
Sterling Rises on Optimism About U.K.-EU Trade Deal
Sterling rises following reports that the U.K. and EU have reached a new trade deal ahead of a summit in London. The U.K. and EU have reportedly reached a breakthrough over fishing rights and checks on food and other agricultural products. Closer U.K.-EU alignment is sterling positive, ING analyst Chris Turner says in a note. ING expected any surprise progress to send the euro below 0.8400 pounds and sterling to rise to as high as $1.3400. Sterling rises 0.7% to a 12-day high of $1.3373, according to FactSet. The euro falls 0.1% to 0.8408 pounds.
USDJPY Daily
You can say lots of things about Yen, but first and most – it is disciplined.
144.150 is a crucial Support line , that if provides a good footing USDJPY would easily go through 149 on next attempt Up.
However, loss of it opens a way for test of Support at 141.350
Immediate resistances are: Â 145.450, 145.700 & 146.300
Intraday pressure is Down.
EURUSD Daily
From the moment Europe opened , EUR just went up, and up….and up
Resistance in front of it at 1.13250 might be a pausing level, or it can just go straight through it…but in this current situation it shouldn’t present much of a hurdle.
Supports: 1.12500, 1.12250 & 1.12050
If 1.13250 gives a way on first attempt, next resistance comes at 1.13800
US OPEN
US Market Open: Moody start to the week in sell-America trade after US AAA rating stripped; ES -1.2%
Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 7Â things you need to know for today’s market.
7 Things You Need to Know
Moody’s lowered the US’s sovereign rating from AAA to Aa1; Outlook Revised to Stable from Negative and warned of rising government debt and a widening budget deficit.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said countries will get a letter with a US tariff rate if they are not negotiating in good faith and he thinks that rate would be the April 2nd level.
The House Budget Committee approved President Trump’s tax cut bill to set up a possible vote as soon as this week.
European bourses lower and US equity futures slip in an initial reaction to the latest Moody’s downgrade; ES -1.2%.
USD shunned as Moody’s downgrade spooks markets, GBP cheers UK-EU “reset” deal.
Moody start for bonds after the US downgrade, Gilts lag on Brexit updates and into 30yr syndication.
Downbeat trade across oil contracts but precious metals lifted; spot gold eyes USD 3,250/oz.
THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)
The upcoming week in global economics features a flurry of crucial data releases and policy decisions that will offer clearer direction amid growing uncertainty. In Europe, attention centers on May sentiment indicators following the imposition of U.S. tariffs, which have contributed to declining consumer confidence and contracting PMI readings in major economies like France and Germany. While inflation appears contained, the European Central Bank’s meeting minutes and GDP data from Germany will provide insight into whether further monetary easing is on the table.
In the U.S., the spring housing market is showing signs of weakness, with persistently high mortgage rates and economic anxiety weighing on both buyers and builders. April data on existing and new home sales will reveal whether modest interest rate dips encouraged activity, while jobless claims and leading indicators are expected to paint a mixed picture of labor market stability and economic momentum. Meanwhile, China faces a slowdown in manufacturing and services due to escalating trade tensions, prompting policy responses like rate cuts and reserve requirement adjustments. Additional focus will be on Japan’s inflation uptick, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s anticipated rate cut, and economic data from the UK, Canada, and Singapore, all of which collectively shape the global outlook for Q2 2025.
Econoday
Scanning the overnight headlines, this one caught my attention although there was no market reaction
EURUSD 4 HOUR –What AT is showing
Leading the dollar sell-off.. opening week gap not filled
Key level: 1.1292… firm break would confirm end of the current downtrend… .needs 1.1250-65 to become support to keep it exposed
Click on the Amazing Trader link in the upper menu bar to learn more and claim your free 30-day trial
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows…
Thr reaction to news is what matters as the Moodys downgrade could gave been ignored but instead has seen
Dollar trading weaker led buthe anti-dollar EURUSD
Bad mix: US stocls and bonds (higher yields) both down
GOLD up but so far not breaking key levels
US tax bill passes commitee and will be sent to the House floor for a vote
Putin=Trump to talk today on Ukraine
EU)/K summit: agreement on post-Brexit reset deal ahead of meeting
XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOURCHART – What AT is showing\
Damage not yet fatal
Gap opening… top of the gap is 3202,,, will the gap get filled?… Keeps a bid as long as 3202 holds on the downside
Higher low (3154) needs to see a break of 3252 (and then 3265) to confirm a shift back to an uptrend.
AT = The Amazing Trader
Click on the Amazing Trader link in the upper menu bar to learn more and claim your free 30-day trial
EURUSD 4h
Perspective after open
Resistances: 1.11850, 1.11950 & 1.12050
Supports: 1.11650, 1.11450 & 1.11300
As long as within this downward channel, it is slowly going to go for new lows.
On the upper side – break of 1.12050 would open the road for attack at first 1.12500 and even 1.12650
Do not forget that we are still within the rectangle : 1.10650 & 1.12650
ETHUSD – Ethereum 4h
Ethereum trying to follow the suit by Bitcoin, but that is where all similarity ends.
ETHUSD is far far away from the All time high, and it has to mature to be able to reach that again.
Supports: 2550.00, 2525.00 & 2490.00
Resistances: 2605.00, 2650.00 & 2740.00
Overall target of this move should be somewhere in 2795.00 area
BTCUSD – Bitcoin 4h
May 16th, 4:01 PM
Bitcoin slowly getting into Bullish position.
This might be the start of the new Rally Up – watch closely
I really wouldn’t remind you what I said, but everyone else saw the top at 104K and expected BTC to take a dive- from big media all the way to little Gurus on the net.
Supports:
105.025, 104.500 & 103.750
Resistances:
105.835, 109.150 & 114.500
Gold Futures End Week on Negative Note
Gold’s front-month contract settles down 1.2% to $3,182 a troy ounce. For the week, the contract declined 4.6%, the largest weekly percentage drop since June 2021. Growing interest in re-engaging in equities and other assets have weighed on gold, but whether there’s more short-term downside remains unclear. “Amid the trade onslaught, the probability of a recession has risen substantially,” says the World Gold Council in a note. The organization says investors should keep in mind that considerable downside risk remains for other asset classes, “leading to greater safe-haven demand, notably gold.”
Gold Chart
The U.S. Doesn’t Have a Perfect Credit Rating Anymore. Investors Shouldn’t Worry Yet.
After the closing bell on Friday, Moody’s became the last major credit-rating firm to downgrade U.S. sovereign debt from its perfect AAA status to Aa1. The firm argues that the U.S. is on a trajectory to increase entitlement spending — without the necessary government revenues to keep interest payment ratios at levels similar to other sovereign nations.
While the impact of the downgrade on bond markets won’t be clear until they open Sunday night, investors may not yet have to worry about major near-term impacts to U.S. equities or Treasury yields, money managers said.
Given the U.S. hasn’t had a perfect AAA rating across all major agencies for quite some time, the market has likely already absorbed some level of risk assessment, Gregory Peters, co-chief investment officer at PGIM Fixed Income.
Mass selling of U.S. debt by institutional investors who are required to only hold the Aaa debt is unlikely, he added. Many institutions changed their fund mandates to create a carveout for U.S. Treasuries after the U.S. received its first debt downgrade by S&P in August 2011.
The extent to which foreign investors are concerned about holding U.S. assets has been a hot topic in recent months, as the United Kingdom surpassed China at the end of March as the second-largest holder of U.S. debt (Japan remains the largest). While data shows that foreign holdings of U.S. debt reached an all time high of $9.05 trillion in March, more recent data could reflect the period following President Donald Trump’s announcement of so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs on the world that contributed to the 10-year Treasury yield rising from 3.8% to nearly 4.6% in April. Analysts have speculated that the yield increased as foreign investors dumped U.S. debt.
However, recent Treasury auctions show net buying of U.S. debt by indirect bidders such as central banks, according to Ben Emons, chief investment officer and founder of FedWatch Advisors. Weekly Japanese Ministry of Finance data also shows the country is continuing U.S. Treasury purchases.
But the relief rally has also contributed to Treasury yields rising from 4.1% back to nearly 4.5% as forecasts for U.S. economic growth improved. Meanwhile, House Republicans are preparing an extension of historic Trump-era tax cuts that will increase the deficit.
US 10Y Price
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