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US OPEN
US equity futures & DXY lower ahead of a slew of Fed speak, Crude choppy on Iran updates
Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.
5 Things You Need to Know
European bourses are modestly firmer whilst US equity futures sit in negative territory.
USD remains out of favour, AUD weighed on after the RBA delivered a 25bps cut (as expected) and amid discussion of a 50bps cut.
JGBs briefly hit by a poor auction, fixed recovery continues into numerous Fed speakers.
Crude choppy on mixed geopolitics regarding Russia/Ukraine and Iranian nuclear talks.
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said “I don’t think nuclear talks with the US will be successful”, via Mehr news.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – What AT is showing
Filled the opening week gap and then said bye bye to the upside.
Break of 144.42-82 makes this the initial resistance zone… only above the top end would put 145 in play again.
If it stays below 145, a case can be made for a new lower 142-145 range…If not, then range is 144-146…low so far 144.08
AT = The Amazing Trader
Click on the Amazing Trader link in the upper menu bar to learn more and claim your free 30-day trial
EUR/USD: Euro Cracks Through $1.1250 as Dollar Pulls Back on Rating Downgrade Fears
Key points:
· Euro rises for second day in a row
· Moody’s downgrade weighs on dollar
· Quiet economic calendar ahead
Euro Extends Gains to $1.1250
· The EURUSD pair was rising for a second straight session Tuesday, cracking the $1.1250 level as the US dollar was getting stripped of its pips in the wake of Moody’s credit downgrade.
With macro catalysts mostly behind us this week, technical traders are looking to get back in control — and they’re clearly liking the setup for more upside in the euro-dollar.
A sustained move above $1.1250 could put the euro on track to revisit its April highs near $1.16, as dollar bulls hit pause. But, of course, that’s forex and currencies can change their mood overnight.
Friday’s downgrade of the US credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa continues to linger, with currency-trading bros now reassessing the dollar’s strength.
Although markets initially shrugged off the news (at least in the equity corner), the greenback is starting to show signs of fatigue as the cost of US debt and fiscal imbalances come back into focus.A few words on that: the US spent nearly $900 billion just to pay off the interest on its debt last year. Total spending hit $6.75 trillion while total receipts landed at $4.92 trillion. That creates a deficit of $1.83 trillion.
Traders are watching key levels like $1.1275 and $1.1300 for potential resistance. A clean break above could set off more algo buying.
On the flip side, dollar bulls may regroup around the $1.1100 handle — a critical short-term support — especially if Donald Trump takes to his Truth Social platform for an update on the tariff situation.
XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOUR – What AT is saying
Still consolidating within 3200-50 BUT
Came close enough to filling the opening week gap (3205 low vs 3203 gap)
Break of 3252-65 still needed to confirm the low is in and build momentum to the upside.
Only a break of 3154 would negate a potential change in direction pattern
.Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows
Tough Tuesday trading
… the dollar trading mixed to slightly weaker with follow through so far proving difficult on both sides
USDJPY fell after closing its opening week gap
.. AUDUSD weaker after dovish RBA rate cut
GOLD up a touch but still in its tight range
US stocks lower
US bond yields lower, fully reversing yesterday’s downgrade ruse
No key U.S. data today, more Fedspeak
Geopolitics: Elusive Ukraine-Russia peace talks, Iran nuclear deal seems a long shot
BTCUSD
Bitcoin reached today new high at 107.200 – but after some savage profit taking took a serious dive.
However it managed to recover and now looks like it will be closing around 105.500
If so, tomorrow we can expect a new high – around 109.400 would be perfect.
I’ll feel free to claim that overall target in next couple of weeks should be 120K
Supports: 104.200, 102.550 & 102.100
NIO Inc.
Well what can I say –whenever it comes to a position for attack, Nio deflates like a damaged balloon.
For another attempt higher it need to do two things:
First to hold on the support at 3.90
Second to go over resistance at 4.12
If so, it will have a chance to test channel resistance line at 4.37 ( 4.40 to be on the safe side)
Below it faces 3.80 & 3.60
US 10 year back to 4.50% …FX finally waking up to the panic is over for now as USD firms…EURUSD 11228 blocks a return to 1.12… Power of 50 rules while within 1.12-1.13
For those who missed this popular article or would like to revisit it, see how the mood in EURUSD changed while above/below 1.1250
My Favorite Trading Secret: The Power of the “50” Level
EURUSD 15 Minute –What AT is showing
You have seen me use AT for my charts and I will let it do the talking.
1.1292 Key target… high was 1.1288 (levels and failure posted here earlier)
Falling blue lines indicated risk shifted to the downside
Target 1.1240 red line support… came close but bounced back above 1.1250 after it held
AT = The Amazing Trader
Click on the Amazing Trader link in the upper menu bar to learn more and claim your free 30-day trial
EURUSD 1h
As you can see from this chart – 1H – there are two levels that should hold for EUR to continue Up:
1.12250/300 & 1.12100
On the upper side there is again 1.12650 resistance – for sustainable move Up it takes time…hours…as if it would try it now, it would fail
As it is becoming late in the day for any significant move, expect tests to the downside.
What’s Hot and Waht’s Not?
What’s hot?
All currencies although off earlier highs.
GOLD but unable to get through 3252, focus on staying above 3202 (gap)
What’s not?
The USD is weaker although off earlier lows.. pivotal levels to watch: EURUSD 1.1250, USDJPY 145
U.S. stocks down although off earlier lows
US bonds down (higher yields) but off earlier lows
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