[Forex Cycle]

AUDUSD Analysis: Uptrend Continuation and Key Levels

AUDUSD continues its upward trajectory from 0.6477, with the recent retracement from 0.6667 likely representing a period of consolidation within the uptrend.

As long as the support at 0.6584 remains intact, the uptrend is anticipated to resume, potentially leading to a further ascent towards the 0.6750 region.

The initial resistance level to monitor is at 0.6640. A successful breakout above this level could propel the price towards testing the 0.6667 resistance. Subsequent breakthrough above 0.6667 would set the stage for a push towards 0.6750.

Conversely, a breakdown below the 0.6584 support level would signal a potential completion of the upward movement at 0.6667, potentially resulting in a decline towards the 0.6500 level.

[Mtl JP]

ya ya yeah
–
A focus at the next Fed meeting will be whether most officials continue to expect three cuts this year—or fewer

Inflation Uptick Unlikely to Derail Fed Cut Later This Year

we ll all be making a bet on that

[GVI Forex 2]

UK GDP (WED): Expectations are for a 0.2% expansion in M/M GDP for January vs. the 0.1% contraction seen in December. The December release saw a 0.1% M/M contraction vs. the 0.2% expansion in November with the monthly data coinciding with the Q4 metrics which showed the UK entered into a technical recession at the end of 2024.

For the upcoming report, Pantheon Macro is of the view that the January data will show the UK “leaving last year’s minor recession firmly behind”. The consultancy adds that the 3.4% jump in January retail sales will explain “almost all” of the 0.2% M/M expansion it expects for the January data.

Furthermore, Pantheon is of the view that strength in the upcoming release will not be a “flash in the pan” given that PMI data has continued to recover since October with the February composite metric of 53.0 consistent with 0.25% Q/Q growth. From a policy perspective, a favourable release will likely put the UK on track to exceed the BoE’s mild 0.1% forecast for Q1 Q/Q GDP. However, it is unlikely to shift market pricing materially given the Bank’s ongoing focus on real wages and services inflation.

Newsquaek.com

[Mtl JP]

Reminder to the peasants
“‘Theirs not to reason why, / Theirs but to do and die’”
—
* Fund managers want the EU to issue debt to upgrade defense
* Underspending has left states vulnerable to Russian aggression

BBRG Bond Investors Are Lining Up to Fund the War Against Putin

Sadliest best line – imho : “A debt-funded EU defense program “would be a very welcome development — an Hamiltonian moment so to say,” said Kaspar Hense, a senior portfolio manager at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, referring to the Treasury secretary who in 1790 helped turn the US into a federation by pooling the debt of various states. “I would not worry about there not being demand.”

[Mtl JP]

ahead of fed blackout next week
–
Citadel’s Ken Griffin says the Fed shouldn’t cut too quickly, citing big tailwinds supporting inflation

all that is missing is for players to come around to ken’s idea and re-price their eagerness for FED cutting

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4-hour Chart – Is the high in at 2195 for now?

Is XAUUSD set up for a correction?

Technicians will point to a wedge formed by trendlines on both sides.

I can only go by what AT shows me. When there are 3 lines, in this case blue, drawn off the high, it is often followed by an acceleration in the direction of the lines. In this case, it would be to the downside.

Watch the up trendline to see if it holds or can be broken.

[SF Monedge]

Ok. The market is trying to fill the gap in GbpChf around 1.2630.  This is where I have sell orders.  Make or break.  If make, cancel and ride.  If not, sell.

[Mtl JP]

us electioneering now under way
–
cnn’s oliver darcy thinks cnbc squawk box’s joe kernan reports to him:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/12/media/cnbc-trump-interview-lies/index.html

got myself some popcorn

[SF Monedge]

JP – As you know so well. international markets are fluid.  And much money flow.  Fascinating actually.  I learned, among other things, as explained to me from many CTA’s, including a guy in San Diego who told me “markets overshoot.”  So to trade that philosophy requires patience and taking a lump or two.  If you are limited in capital, we must be as precise as possible.  What I found is to pat attention to the big picture and navigate inward so you can recognize money flow.  But do not discount the larger picture.  I do not know everything.

[Mtl JP]

monedge … the CBs are trying to herd cats and gv forum is a quilting bee – aka husking bee to strip maize

[Mtl JP]

as reuters reports :
post CPI
–
Fed seen on hold until June, with rate-cut pace in focus
March 12 (Reuters) – A second straight month of stronger-than-expected inflation has effectively shut the door on the possibility of a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut before June, and makes back-to-back reductions after that look increasingly less likely. …/,,

[SF Monedge]

JP – As you know so well. international markets are fluid.  And much money flow.  Fascinating actually.  I learned, among other things, as explained to me from many CTA’s, including a guy in San Diego who told me “markets overshoot.”  So to trade that philosophy requires patience and taking a lump or two.  If you are limited in capital, we must be as precise as possible.  What I found is to pat attention to the big picture and navigate inward so you can recognize money flow.  But do not discount the larger picture.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Monedge, you brought back some memories 😀

It was mid 90’s and I was on the desk of a Middle Eastern bank – off shore outfit ..

We had a Forex dealing desk , and had regular clients – HNWI – we called them High Net worth Individual Suckers , but some of them became  good friends.

Between tens of different stories ( each man had a story to tell 😀 , two cannot be forgotten :

One had a Nickname – Goddammit , I Should Sold it, and the other was called behind his back – BOBBY , BUT WHY NOW ??

Such a fond memories 😀

[Mtl JP]

maybe bailey should be consulting with Elvira Sakhipzadovna Nabiullina

[Mtl JP]

geezus … what is putin doing right and the un-named doomsayers wrong ?

The Economist: Russia’s economy once again defies the doomsayers
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/03/10/russias-economy-once-again-defies-the-doomsayers

I want names. Name the doomssayers !

[Mtl JP]

who has a link to bailey’s original yak ? – tia

–

I am intrigued that baily – not exactly a 100 watt shining lightbulb of central banking – would appoint himself leader / spokesman “for central banks now is what they must do” to … blablabla (ref post below)

[Mtl JP]

1:39 GVI Forex / back to square one
–
I dont think so. Inflation fight not going according to hope (ie. confidently towards his 2% trgt).
So what is he to do now: try to move the goalposts by reminding players of his earlier “average 2% over time” ?

I am perplexed at how jerome is able to get himself into a pickle with his yik-yak.

check this out: Inflation Expectations Stable at the Short-Term, Rise at Medium and Longer-Term Horizons
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/inflexp-1

[Mtl JP]

earlier bailey
–
LONDON, March 12 (Reuters) -Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Tuesday that the main question for central banks now is what they must do to get inflation to stay at target levels and how restrictive rates will need to be.

“The question for us now, as central banks, is actually what will it take to get it to stay at our 2% target on a sustained basis? That’s the key,” Bailey said during a panel discussion organised by the Bank of Italy.

“This whole question about restrictiveness and the question of restrictive relative to what … I think is now key.”

The BoE last month held interest rates at their highest since 2008 but said it was putting borrowing costs under review as it forecast inflation would fall to its 2% target in the April-to-June period.

—

10-yr 4.155%
top of hour yellen’s USD39 Bln 10-Year peddling

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART

The range is well-defined at 1.3469-1.3525

The key focus for this pair is the magic 1.35 level as that will dictate which direction this pair eventually moves.

[SF Monedge]

GV I cannot imagine a better place to converge.  GVI is the real thing.  This is the place to be.

[GVI Forex 2]

Monege, when we first created the Forex Forum there were no threads or bulletin boards. Our design was based on recreating the old bank dealing room where traders in the room were constantly quoting two-way prices to other banks. So, it was important to let the other trades know when a foreign bank traded on your price. There were no screens or electronic trading so you always shaded the market based on your position and view. It was hairy trading but a lot of fun. True market makers, not like today.

This was (and still is) the design of our Forex Forum where we look to exchange information for the benefit of all.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 30 Minute Chart

if you are looking for a reason why GBPUSD bounced off its low

1) First look at my GBPUSD post below

20 Look at this EURGBP chart (you can also look at other GBP crosses but I like this one as it is pretty clear where the flow is going).

[SF Monedge]

There are times we are considering what would amount to an incorrect move and the team here will let you know they think you are making a mistake.  The team here has prevented me from doing so more than once.  The best of us have struggles, the team counts.

[SF Monedge]

Bobby, a long time ago I was trading currencies out of a firm called Tokyo International in San Francisco.  They were largely Elliot Wave carefully gave us room to use something if it worked and they had gained trust in you.  There was a lot of yelling and throwing things at the office walls lol.  Highly competitive, like a sports team.  At the end of the day we all went to Japan town or an expensive restaurant in the financial district and made up, so we could live to fight another day together.  It was ok to get arub on the head for a courageous day, but we tempered it inevitably.  Everyone is under pressure doing what we do.  I learned to shout across the room when you see a setup, like JP’s head and shoulders view.

[SF Monedge]

I like the discourse.  Currency traders have a lot of spirit. In the spirit of viewing cross currencies, I am very dialed in on GbpChf this week and believe the hard sell to the 1170 area on the data did not compromise the average true range of the bigger picture and see decent probabilities for the pair to search for fair value back toward 1250.  That would transfer to other Sterling pairs of course.  So the plan for me today was to close everything last night and hope for a failed downward strike, which we got this time.  So I am looking for the pair to run out of gas a bit higher than current market.

[Mtl JP]

maybe get on with technological times and offer kitchen sink: hand clapping, applause, cheer etc for the isolated lonely hearts to help with engaging in social interaction with faceless “friends”

[Belgrade Knez]

Mtl JP 2:55 pm
I am sorry for being childish and friendly to you serious man!

[Belgrade Bobby]

Mtl, if it doesn’t mean shit to you, not necessarily applies to everyone. And being childish  is my middle name.

[GVI Forex 2]

As I posted below

Follow the lead set by US bond yields.

10 year 4.149% vs. 4.09 pre-CPI

[Mtl JP]

like = thumbs, stars etc = childish

why not instead add something constructive of trading value to a post’s theme that you “like” or do you really need an opp to express a personal emotion of approval – as if it matters to someone on the forum ?

[Author]

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