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EURUSD 4 HOUR: 1.16 remains a focus
So far unable to shake a focus from 1.1600 after breaking a 6-day pattern yesterday trading around it.
To build momentum off of it, 1.1641 (and then 1.1460), would need to be broken.
Otherwise, trapped within a broader 1.1562-84/1.1641-60 range with a bid (even a weak one) unless 1.16 prints again.
EURUSD has entered a tight consolidation range between its 20- and 50-period SMAs at 1.1605 and 1.1617 respectively, following a partial recovery from its post-NFP low of 1.1584. Despite the recent rebound, buyers have failed to clear last week’s resistance around 1.1617 keeping downside risks active
Market Update
A firmer JPY has highlighted what has so far been quiet US holiday thinned trading.
EURUSD is holding a bid above 1.1600 but so far with limnited follow through on the upside.
US500 is clinging to a bid just above 7700 (on this CFD chart) but in a tight wait-and-see week range..
Crude oil is hoding firm just below 6 week highs. What would set off headline alarms with potential ripple effects would be Brent trading back abovve $100.
EURUSD DAILY: Watch 1.16
While 1.16 is not a key pivotal round number thE fact that it has traded 6 days in a row increases its importance.
So, limits the range while this pattern continues.
Once broken (e.g. 1.16 becomes support or resistance) risk shifts to a directional move in the direction of the breskout
Current range; 1.1565-85 / 1.1640-60
Market Update (4 hour)
EURUSD shrugging off the better NFP and seems set to close (bu not too far) above 1.16, a level that has printed 6 days in a row.and thus a pivotal level going forward.
US500: Post-NFP retreat clinging to a bid after a pause just above 7700.
XTIUSD: Can’t make up its mind with limited follow through on both sides.
Market Update Bond yields extending highs as crude prices off highs but remain elevated enough to spook markets.
EURUSD: 1.1562-70 remain key support (top end being tested) blocking exposing 1.1525/10/00/
US500: Facing a void of key levels so using FIBOS where 38.2% completed (low 7612), 7555 = 50% below it. Back above 7643-64 on this CFD chart needed to slow the risk
Market Update: Risk off
EURUSD: Still in its range after coming close to completing a 61.8% retracement (1.1624 high vs. 1.1627). Now dependent on 1.1576/70/62 holding to check the downside and prevent a run at 1.1525/10/00.
US500: Clinging to its recent 7640 low, below which opens a void on the downside other than round numbers and FIBO levels. Stays defensive while below 7700.
Crude oil: XBRUSD above $90 makes $90-$95 a pivotal zone with $100 looming above.
(Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)
Market Update: Month end?
USD slipped in what appeared to be month end flows weighing on the currency. For EURUSD to negate Friday’;s breakdown, 1.1635+ would be needed (similar level in GBPUSD would be 1.3570)
US500 remains defensive below 7700 but downside contained while above 7640-50
Crude oil backing off and consolidating after building on the opening gap higher.
EURUSD 4 HOUR: Why 1.1650 remains pivotal
1.1650 = midpoint of two key round numbers. 1.15 and 1.18.
If 1.1650 becomes so;id support, then 1.18 becomes a target
If 1.1650 fails to become support and becomes resistance, then range goes back to 1.15-1.16
1.1642 currently being tested (low so far 1.1649)
Market Update
EURUSD: Downside contained by the pause above 1.1650 but that just lowers the bottom oif the range to 1.1711 with 1.1775-87 ahead of it.
US500: Pause above the 7640 low has potential to form a higher low but only confirmed if 7700+ trades.
XTIUSD: Turning on the defensive but faces supports still below the market.
\EURUSD 4 HOUR: Struggling to build momentum
Trend: up Momentum: Short-term down but so far contained
Short-term momentum turning down (lower highs) but downside contained while above 1,1650 (low 1.1651), so far just a minor retracement. To put a squeeze on longs, 1.1650 and the 4 hour trendline would need to be broken. Otherwise, resistance at 1,1675 (Tuesday high) and 1.1687 (Monday high).
Market Update: Summer Friday trading
What caught my eye is EURUSD testing both sides of its range, running into sellers on top and buyers at the bottom rather than typical stops.
With US yields moving up, downside should be more at risk but only if there are stops to run.
If not, then it will be a dull end to a summer Friday.
Same for US stocks while above earlier lows.
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar seems set to end the week on the defensive as it trades lower ahead of the US open. US bond yields have steadied and stocks are up but talk the U.S. fiscal position, with the total deficit surpassing $40 trillion grabbing headlines and rising, is acting as a weight on the dollar.
- AUD and NZD outperforming,
- USDJPY is weaker after completing a 61.8% retracement (159.11) but is still above 158
- GBPUSD has extended its high, marginally so far, through a 1.3658 target
- EURUSD retested its 1.1710 high, holding so far
- USDCAD extended its low but so far holding above 1.3730 support
