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USDJPY DAILY: Bullish signal?
USDJPY on the verge of breaking a 7-day pattern pivoting 158, which under normal circumstances would send a bullish signal for 159.;03 assuming158.50 is firmly broken. However, these are not normal times given the BoJ intervention threat although a hard sell to traders if the overall USD tone stays firm. In any case, a break of this pattern would be bullish.
XAUUSD (GOLD) 1 HOUR: Back to 4100-4200?
This scenario posted Friday so far playing out (today’s high 4217 => last 4168.. needs to hold 4168 to keep focus on 4200 or upside risk cools)
Market trading like the low is in (at least for now) but to build momentum for a run at 4315, , 4227 needs to be firmly broken.
If not, upside cools and 4100-4200 becomes the range.
Market Update: Sparring Match
It feels like a sparring match in holiday thinned trading ahead of key events this week, highlighted by Wed’s release of US CPI.
EURUSD unable to shake a focus from 1.12 (currently trading softer back below). Day range so far: 1.1183-1.1217
US stock market bulls are hoping earnings season, starting with big banks reporting on Tues and Wed, will lift to new highs. US500 came close but paused today below its 7845 record high.
Crude oil is back to about unchanged after initially opening lower.
In our blog
NewsquawkWeek in Focus 12-16th October 2026: US CPI, US Retail Sales, Start of Q3 Earnings, China CPI, UK jobs, RBA Minutes and Aussie jobs
Market Update: Indices
US500 break of 7808 (high 7820) breaks down momentum but to make a run at the 7845 record high, 7800-08 needs to become support to keep a bid. Otherwise, a lower high (7833) will still be on the chart.
NAS100 not confirming with 31145 needing to be taken out for a break of down momentum. Otherwise, set of lower hiohs bstays on the chart. In any case, NAS’ history of short-lived retracements followed by new highs will be put to the test.
BTCUSD vs. ETHUSD
BTCUSD: Saved by the pause above 80K but would need to move back above 83500 to negate the risk and shift it back to 85K.
ETHUSD: Paused just above 2400 (and a 2352 target) but bounce would need to move above 2500-15 to cool the risk and then above 2560-85 to shift it the other way.
