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AUDUSD 4 HOUR: Retracement
Buy the rumor sell the fact reaction following the RBA rate hike paused almost dead on at 61.8% of .6894 => .7068 (,6951 low vs. ,6960 FIBO).
This, therefrore, becomes more than just a chart point that will keep the focus on .7000 unless broken, which in that case would signal a 4 hour downtrend.
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar is trading on the firm side with the AUD weakest following the widely expected (6-3 spilt) RBA vote to hike rates.
US yields have ticked up as they follow a bounce in crude oil after yesterday’s sharp drop as the hope trade loses steam.
Worth noting are pivotal levels: EURUSD trading beloiw 1.12 after a visit above yesterday and a brief one again today, USDJPY back to 158.00 and AUDUSD staying below .7000.
US midterms, geopolitics, tech stocks and US jobs at week’s end have split the market’s focus.
US stock market bulls are hoping the answer will be yes,
Will History Repeat and U.S. Stocks Rally After the Midterms?
Apple topped expectations in its fiscal fourth quarter, reporting EPS of $2.10 versus $1.99 expected and revenue of $114.5 billion against a $113.4 billion forecast. Net income reached $30.7 billion, above the $29 billion consensus, while operating income of $35.6 billion also beat the $34.6 billion estimate. Q4 operating expenses totaled $19.2 billion.
NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR (CFD): Watch 28000
Tech on the defensive again cutting short the NAS100 rally. This has seen 28000 briefly broken although it is just a pivotal round number with key support at around 27000, a target that bulls do not want to see broken.
Watch the reaction to Apple earnings and the close vs 28000, above which needs to trade to cool off the risk now that stops have been run below it.
XAUUSD VS. BTCUSD (4 HOUR)
XAUUSD: To build momentum off a higher low that would challenge 4039-82, 4000+ would be needed. if not, then look for 3950 to set the tone while trade is within 3900-4000.
BTCUSD: Trying to build momentum off a higher low as well but unless 78000 is established as support, upside will be limited.
Market Update: Indices (Weekly)
Bounces from above US500 7500 and just above NAS100 28000 giving indices a breather where both show 3 red weekly candles as a pattern to watch, especially after the midterms.
This suggests how they close the week will be more important than how it opens to see if this pattern is extended or holds, especially given the history how stocks have performed post-midterms.
In this regard, see our article,
Global view Will History Repeat and U.S. Stocks Rally After the Midterms?
Will the hope trade work this time around?
Hope Is Not a Trading Strategy: Understanding Hope Trades
Market Update: New month, new ball game
Hope trade back on?
EURUSD up (USD mixed): 1.12 pivotal after brief break of Friday’s 1.1225 high
NAS100 (stocks up): Hope for peace talks and hope Apple earnings will provide a lifeline today
XBRUSD: Weaker oil part of a hope trade
(Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)
Will History Repeat and U.S. Stocks Rally After the Midterms?
History strongly favors higher stock prices. However, investors face several headwinds that could complicate the outlook, including concerns about AI valuations, elevated oil prices, developments in the Gulf and the direction of U.S. Treasury yields. While the election may remove one source of uncertainty, it will not automatically remove the economic and financial pressures affecting markets. That leaves traders with a familiar challenge: weighing an impressive historical pattern against the conditions in front of them
.Newsquawk Week Ahead In Focus 2nd-6th November 2026 Highlights include US Midterm Election, NFP, ISM PMIs, RBA, BoE and EZ CPI SEE DETAILED PREVIEWS
Can AI Trading Bots Improve Results or Make Losses Worse?
You enter a trade with a clear plan. You know why you are buying or selling, where your stop belongs and when you intend to take a profit. Then prices start flashing. The market moves against you and approaches your stop. You question your entry. Perhaps the direction was right but the timing was wrong. Price stalls, turns and returns to your entry point…. then what happens?
