[GVI Forex 2]

With EURUSD key support around 1.0950, it is time to revisit this popular article in our blog

My Favorite Trading Secret: The Power of the “50” Level

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – Power of 50

Coincidentally or not key EURUSD support is around the pivotal “50” level… low so far 1.0951

From our Weekly FX Chart Outlook

EURUSD WILL STAY ON THE DFENSIVE AS LONG AS IT TRADES BELOW 1.10

To accelerate the move to the downside, and expose 1.0880, 1.0949 would need to be firmly broken.

Note the 100 and 200 day moving averages (mvas)… potential targets if further momentum builds to the downside.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART – JPY IS THE ONLY CURRENCY UP TODAY VS THE USD

From our Weekly FX Chart Outlook

The break of 147.20 exposes 149.37 with potential for 150 if this level is broken.

On the downside, keeps a strong bid if it stays above 148 with scaled down bids as long as it trades above 147.20.

Key area is above 150, (50% = 150.75) and 200 day mva (around 151.00)

[GVI Forex 2]

Hint: If you trade EURUSD and/or GBPUSD, you need to keep an eye on EURGBP

EURGBP is at the high for the day. GBPUSD has slipped, EURUSD has barely moved.

EURGBP 1 HOUR CHART – testing resistance

[GVI Forex 2]

Hint: If you trade EURUSD and/or GBPUSD, you need to keep an eye on EURGBP

EURGBP is at the high for the day. GBPUSD has slipped, EURUSD has barely moved.

[GVI Forex 2]

It’s Monday – quick summary

Israel-Hezbollah heating up

US Stocks turn down..

Dollar up a touch except vs JPY

USDJPY paused below 149.37 and is down sharply but still above 148

EUEUSD came within a hair of testing 1.0049, stays on the defensive as long as it stays below 1.10

Gold so far not benefiting from geopolitical risks… continues to pivot 2650… see update below

[GVI Forex 2]

Weekly FX Chart Outlook – October 7-11

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 DAILY CHART -Record high looms above

Scroll below to see reasons to be cautious in a market where stocks remain resilient.

One difference with the NAS100 is that unlike the S&P and DOW, it has yet to set a new record high.

For that to be a risk 20K needs to become upport.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 DAILY CHART –  Caution>?

Seems to be more reasons for caution…

–       US elections in just over 4 weeks

–       – Middle East geopolitical risk

–       – Earnings season needs to see strong result to justify lofty valuations

With that said, stocks have been resilient but would need to take out the record high or risk at least some consolidation

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC 4 HOUR CHART – 60K-65K

Having failed at both sides below/above 60k-65K, BTC is back into this range.

Current momentum is tilted up but expect more chop until there is a decisive move outside of 60-65K

[GVI Forex 2]

Week Ahead

Focus on stocks to set risk on/risk off tone

Geopolitical risk + higher yields after jobs data vs earnings reporting season and support for high valuations

Fed still seen cutting rates in Nov but by 25bps rather than the market fantasy of 50bps

NEW YORK, Oct 4 (Reuters) – A high-stakes corporate earnings season kicks into gear next week, with bullish investors hoping results will justify increasingly rich valuations in a U.S. stock market near record highs.

The case for strong U.S. economic growth got a boost on Friday, after labor market data came in far above expectations. The S&P 500 is up 20% year-to-date and stands near record highs despite recent tumult spurred by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Wall St Week Ahead Investors look to earnings to support record-high stock prices

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 H0UR CHART: TUG-OF-WAR

XAUUSD has traded within 2622-2685, the latter being the new record high, for 7 days in aa row.

Tug-of-war: Higher US yield vs. simmering Middle East geopolitical risk.

While this consolidation will not last, if you view 2600-2700 as a range, then 2650, currently having a magnetic pulll, will eventually dictate the next move.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights for October 7-11

Newsquawk.com Highlights include US CPI, RBNZ, Minutes from FOMC, ECB and RBA, Canada jobs, and UK GDP

[Mtl JP]

Larry Summers says Fed’s big rate cut was a ‘mistake’ after hot jobs report

https://nypost.com/2024/10/04/business/fed-made-mistake-slashing-rates-by-half-a-point-larry-summers/

[GVI Forex 2]

[SF Monedge]

If there is a drop off in risk appetite I see the 161.80 area for EurJpy as a viable zone for the market to reestablish some balance.

[SF Monedge]

Put to Call Ratio on Nasdaq stocks is only roughly 2/3 from last Friday’s low so it has more room.  Ratio on S&P is mid-way so has more room.  Prior ratio noted is for Dow stocks.

[SF Monedge]

The Put to Call Ratio in US stocks bounced off of relative lows from last Friday and so the odds are strong that there will be aggressive selling opening next week without something substantial to support it.  An isolated metric but one that holds water usually.  Euro likes happy stocks.  It does not like mean stocks.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks showing no concern over geopolitical risk.

[SF Monedge]

See orders coming in buy side yen futures worth paying attention to minutes ago.

[SF Monedge]

Went short UsdCad a bit ago.  Makes sense.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP target hit

AT Alerts  1
Brokers  0

[Mtl JP]

magic … MAGIC

EURO 1.0952

allegedly “50” has some magic attached to it

what is the magic here

mirror mirror on the wall which the next 50 pips will go ?
or is it horror horror .. which way ?!

[michael Calif]

repost:    the decline in USD futures since late June has ended; current rall will continue til at least Oct 23 per Law of Time    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

The AT Alert in EURGBP (short) is still active and well in the black but needs another 10 pips on the downside to hit its target. In any case. it caught the shift in directional risk… scroll down to see video posted below

[GVI Forex 2]

To keep it simple

EURUSD upside is limited a long as it trade below 1.10

USDJPY downside is limited if it can stay above 148 but scaled down interest as long a it is above 147.20

Geopolitical risks ahead of the weekend.

Monday Oct 7 is the one year anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel, so another reason to be cautious into the weekend.

[SF Monedge]

GVI – 2:13 …….. I was just about to post something to that effect.  The activity in UsdJpy is reflecting that with a return so far to what amounts to sideways activity in both spot and in futures and in options and forwards and other metrics.  Someone would have a difficult time convincing me we are headed into a rose garden this Friday.  Not to sound pessimistic.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks backing off after sugar highs following the US jobs report.

As noted earlier, once the dust settles after the US jobs report, there is the geopolitical risks over the weekend to consider.

[SF Monedge]

Dow 421.70 and 421.20 are pivotal areas if the Index is to hold the buy side intraday in my view.

[GVI Forex 2]

CME FedWatch odds now 5/95 against a 50 bops hike so all but factored out for noiw.

[Author]

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