[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART – 200 DAY MVA

As I have been noting, there was a void of key level until 155.20 other than the 200 day mva (151.37), break of which propelled USDJPY higher, and a 61.8% FIBO.

Now 152 becomes pivotal as the level that needs to hold keep a strong bid and put 155.20 on the radar.

Note, the correlation between the JPY and firmer US yields.

Risk of verbal intervention rises given pace of JPY slide.

FIBOS: 153.39 = 61.8% of 161.93-139.58

 

[Mtl JP]

eye on yellen
–
Yellen Says US to Contribute $20 Billion for Ukraine Loan
G-7 set to finalize $50 billion loan for Kyiv on Friday
Loans backed by profits from frozen Russia central bank assets

having listend to her voice talking about f-kking w / russian money
yellen – maybe , maybe not – feels safe in numbers of the G-7

[Mtl JP]

USDCAD 1.3825
BoC on tap today

eminently tradeable

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.232% +0.026
euro 1.0787

It is a fragile world

[GVI Forex 2]

This is a timely article with an addendum

How Does a Currency Options Defense Affect the Spot FX Market?

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP .8316

As I posted earlier…

EURGBP lifted EURUSD away from 1.08 earlier but now slipping and putting some pressure on its downside

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – CONSOLIDATION

Nio change to 5805-95 as the consolidation range… To accelerate the upside, 5695 (record high) would need to be broken and become upport.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – ANOTHER RECORD HIGH

Keep it simple…

Another record high at 2748… WHERE IT PAUSES IS PURE GUESSOWRK BUT 2750 IS A POSSIBLE LEVEL… IF BROKEN, THEN 2800 GETS TARGETED.

Strong bid if above 2740, support on dips a long as it trades above 2700-15

[GVI Forex 2]

Bullseye… 1.0796 low… textbook options defense… It was past the Little Dutch Boy’s bedtime

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0801 = Sup

IF it breaks 1.0780 next trgt
but as Support it need to hold else 1.0670/50 come on radar

[SF Monedge]

If you are thinking inflation has been sinking in REAL terms  you are not thinking.  You are buying horse manure being peddled to you by politicians.

Now, onto something tangible —-

And we have yet another Crypto Scam confusing people who think it is stable —

A glamorous Russian influencer known as the “Queen of Crypto” scammed unsuspecting investors out of over $22 million that she then sent to Ukrainian troops amid the ongoing war, according to reports.

Russian authorities say Valeria Fedyakina, 24, portrayed herself as a cryptocurrency expert on social media to gain the trust of at least four victims who she later stole millions from, NewsX reported.

The influencer, who went by “Bitmama” on social media, pretended to be a cryptocurrency expert with offices in Moscow City, Dubai, Monaco, Serbia and Turkey and convinced her victims to trust her with their millions, CryptoNews also reported.

[SF Monedge]

JP – Funny.  One of them just yesterday said “higher prices are here to stay.”  They must think all of us are stupid.

[Mtl JP]

I am almost giddy
–
“IMF says global fight against inflation is ‘almost won’ but warns of rising risks” – cnbc

[GVI Forex 2]

Unless The Little Dutch Boy, who is still hanging in, wants to spend 24 hours with his finger in the dyke, 1.08 will be vulnerable when markets turn thin.

Otherwise, USD maintains a bid, helped by firm US bond yield.

[SF Monedge]

If you happened to catch my October 21, 2024 at 12:10 am post it was dead on accurate.

Now I am thinking UsdJpy, if it is going to run into trouble will be around the 151.20/30 area.  I have been on the buy side and am now flat in that pair.  You could see the undertow across certain barometers and markets when Euro 108 was under fire and stocks were a part of that with certain metrics showing strength into the selling.  Jay’s reference to options defense was a part of it.  My preference has been the sell side of UsdChf due to the post I referenced and the elements in it.

[GVI Forex 2]

US yield moving up again. 4.214% 10 yr… USDJPY at 151.08

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

That Little Dutch Boy better put his finger on 1.07500 😀

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD low 1.0801… last 1.0810… would need to move above 1.0818 to give The Little Dutch Boy a rest

.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD — new record high but so far just by $2. Needs 2740 to become support to set sights even higher.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 15 MINUTE – Pressuring EURUSD but…

EURGBP lifted EURUSD away from 1.08 earlier but now slipping and putting some pressure on its downside.

Little Dutch Boy must be getting tired but hanging in there.

[GVI Forex 2]

The Little Dutch Boy has his finger stuck in the EURUSD dyke at 1.0801

[GVI Forex 2]

Options defense?

EURUSD low 1.0806 low => 1.0817 last (bounces are getting shallower)

Suggest reading the article below

[GVI Forex 2]

This is a timely article jut posted in our blog and worthy of your attention

How Does a Currency Options Defense Affect the Spot FX Market?

[GVI Forex 2]

XBRUSD 4 HOUR CHGART (Brnet CFD) – Top of the range?

XBRUSD and XTIUSD showing imilar top of the range reistane. To suggest rising geopolitical concwerns, 75.29 would need to be firmlyntaken out.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Open

Oil surges on recent geopolitical updates; speakers & earnings ahead

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.

5 Things You Need to Know

European bourses are entirely in negative
territory, with initial outperformance in the DAX 40 (due to strong SAP results) now entirely erased; US futures are also lower.

Dollar is flat, Antipodeans outperform attempting to recoup some of its recent losses.

Bonds remain on the backfoot in a continuation of the pressure seen in the prior session

Crude was initially subdued, giving back some of the prior day’s gains; however, following two key geopolitical updates, the complex soared to session highs.

1) Israeli PM Netanyahu will hold consultations tonight with various cabinet ministers,
2) Iranian embassy officials were reportedly involved in the drone attempt on Netanyahu

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

Not signed up to our squawk service yet?

Listen to our team of analysts broadcast the news that will impact the markets as it happens, and never be caught off guard again.

Cancel anytime – free for 7 days

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Weekly

Supports : 1.28950 , 1.28600 & 1.28200

Resistances : 1.30600 , 1.30950 & 1.31600

Bullish angle is lost, and now the target is in 1.25150 area

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC 4 HOUR CHART – 70K FAILURE?

The failure to reach and test 70K has stalled BTC’s attempt to follow GOLD to a new record high.

This leaves it dependent on holding 65K to avoid a test of key support at 64766.

Expect chop whilke within 66-68K, a range too tight to last for a crypto.

[GVI Forex 2]

Assuming EURUSD 1.08 is being defended as an options strike, the way it generally works is the seller (writer) of the option buys EURUSD ahead of 1.08 to defend the level.

If EURUSD bounces without 1.08 being traded, it sells out its EURUSD (with a profit) so it can reload if EURUSD comes down again. The options seller repeats the process until the option expires, the defense covers or limits the cost of the option or the strike trades and option is triggered.

Note, it is much harder to defend a level that goes against a prevailing trend.

Also, I just making an assumption that 1.08 has been defended based on the price action.

[Mtl JP]

kashkari

wonders IF neutral rate is higher
expects modest rate cuts over next few qtrs

seems to me like neel is a bit behind market’s 8-ball

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.212

players are definitely repricing bonds.
and bonds are repricing … who cares what,
as long as they are repricing

** volatility is not only good **

[Author]

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