[SF Monedge]

With the slow bubble of risk off sentiment I am thinking 418 Dow has to survive for that to change in stocks.  In these conditions a rule of thumb for me has been to wait for the European fix to consider countering that in Euro.

[GVI Forex 2]

There are times when 1 + 1 = 3

This feels like one of them in the absence of fresh economic news

Middle East tensions simmer with Israel reprisal vs Iran looming at any time

US bond yields up, stocks up – no ign of risk off

Commodity currencies still struggling – sign of risk off
‘
GOLD unable to catch a safe haven bid

As for FX, use the anti-dollar EURUSD 1.10 as a USD strength/weakness indicator…. last at 1.0975

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – REVERSAL OIF FORTUNE

Retreat from .8404 helping to give GBPUSD a bid while EURUSD lags after a tepid attempt at 1.10, on a reversal of the price action seen yesterday.

With key support at .8349, .8350-00 seems more like a no man’s land so watch this cross as it is influencing EURUSD and GBPUSD.

[GVI Forex 2]

Reuters Pollsays 68 out of 75 economists see the ECB cutting the deposit rate by 25bps in October and December. Median show ECB to cut deposit rate to 2.0% by end 2025 (prev 2.50% in Sept poll)… Newsquawk.com.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Waiting from yesterday to see 1.10 and reaction to it – lame…

Supports : 1.09750 , 1.09500 & 1.08850

Resistances : 1.10000 , 1.10350 & 1.10500

Close of this Bar above 1.09850 would be Bullish short term – another leg Up

Close below 1.09800 would indicate possible continuation of the Downtrend

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

World markets painted a messy picture on Tuesday, with recently pumped-up crude oil prices retreating sharply and disappointment surrounding China’s economic stimulus already setting in – knocking Hong Kong shares (.HSI), opens new tab back almost 10%.

The return of mainland Chinese markets after a week’s holiday there did see the CSI300 (.CSI300), opens new tab index play catch-up with another jump of about 6%. But the Hang Seng, which had remained open for much of the week and rallied significantly during that time, turned tail.

Morning Bid: Stocks stall, Hang Seng decimated, oil ebbs

[GVI Forex 2]

For the skeptics, this is truly being offered free to visitors to our website although we might place a limit on the number so suggest acting fast,

It is an amazing opportunity to elevate your trading

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD DAILY CHART

Since setting a record high 9 days ago, XAUUSD has traded either side of 2650 in the following 8 days.

This is clearly the pivotal level, especially if you view the current range at 2600-2700.
‘
GOLD has been aa disappointment in that it is not benefiting from safe haven flows but it remains to be seen if it is just biding its time, In any case, 2650 will eventually dictate whether the current move is just a pause or the start of a retracement,

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD DAILY CHART – Commodity currencies extend slide

AUDUSD continues its retreat from .69+ but faces potential tough areas of support.

Trendline: Around 6713

Key supports:

6690 (also around the 100 day mva – blue)

6621 (also around the 200 day mva – yellow)

On the upside, back above .6738-50 would be needed to slow the risk

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD DAILY CHART – Tests key resistance

Commodity currencies continue to trade weaker

5 green daily candles in a row

Tests the 1.3647 level cited here as the next target, so far holding. A firm break exposes almost another 100 pips on the upside.

Look for support as long as it stays above 1.3600-10

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART – 148 is pivotal

Key levels 147.20 – 149.39

2-day range (so far) 149.12-147.34

As noted, look for scaled down support as long as it trades above 147.20

On the upside, 148_+ would be needed to restore a strong bid.

[GVI Forex 2]

Looking at commodity currencies (weaker) one would expect to see risk off and US stocks lower but so far equities are showing little change

[GVI Forex 2]

Looking at commodity currencies (weaker) one would expect to see risk off and US stocks lower but so far equities are showing little change

[SF Monedge]

Very strong probabilities that Chinese stocks rally very strongly in the Asian session due to curbs being lifted in mainland China.  Hong Kong stocks made significant gains pre-China open.  Risk appetite has transferred a bit into Eur and Gbp.  Buy cycle in those pairs is at critical levels (which are mid-point in a lot of algorithm cycles) so a bit of a pivotal spot for strong gains or a pause.  If the risk continues to transfer they should keep running up.

[michael Calif]

new post:    per Law of Time, EURUSD will form a tradeable Low beginning Wednesday Oct. 9     :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

Next up: RBA minutes… see detailed preview in our blog

AUDUSD DAILY CHART

Key supports 6737 trendline, 6621

Back above .6800 would be needed to restore a bid

[GVI Forex 2]

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[GVI Forex 2]

BTC 4 HOUR Chart – More of the same

Having failed at both sides below/above 60k-65K, BTC is back into this range.

Current momentum is tilted up but expect more chop until there is a decisive move outside of 60-65K

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 DAILY CHART – IS THE HIGH IN?

Commodity currencies were signaling risk off and US stocks finally paid notice.
‘
‘Going strictly by the charts, the high is likely in for now (unless 5773 is taken out) and 5672 support needs to hold or risk the downside picking up steam.

So choice seems to be consolidation (above 5672) or retracement (below 5672).

[SF Monedge]

Sell side of UsdChf looks fairly sturdy so far.  Largely war related.

[GVI Forex 2]

SF, JPY up, commodity currencies down, is the other flavor of the day.

[GVI Forex 2]

XTIUSD DAILY CHART

I am going to fill my car up with gas and thought I would look at the price of crude.

Having erased all of September’s plunge XTIUSD faces resistance at 78.68 and 80,52

Otherwise, wait is on to see what Israel targets in an expected reprisal against Iran.

[SF Monedge]

If flows in Yen futures remain somewhat customary 6900 should be seen, for those of you who can only see spot that translates to the bottom of the current 100 point range for UsdJpy and others.  AudJpy should see 100.00 and 99.50 perhaps.

OEX becomes extended around 2770 which would translate to S&P buyers running out of steam.

Put to Call ratio in Dow is at 0.54 and should stall around 52 which means the puts will be bought again (selling for stocks).

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD DAILY CHART

From our Weekly FX Chart Outlook

Trying to build some upward momentum but would need to move above the 100 and 200 day mvas plus 1.3647 to suggest this is turning into an uptrend.

Downside should be limited on any deep dip as long as it stays above 1.35.

[SF Monedge]

There is a bit of buy side activity in Dow but it is not widespread.

Clearly this  is a risk off start to the week.  It started immediately with the Asian open and never changed.  Significant developments will be needed to turn that around.

I find it interesting that some media are giddy over last week’s US jobs numbers.  They seem to have forgotten in a week’s time the last revision was almost a million job losses off and on the negative side.  I have absolute ZERO faith in ANY numbers that come out of this US administration or its offshoots.  Might as well believe Al Capone, at least he was a good liar not a bad one.

The only thing that increasingly counts in markets is how the flows are going because the economic numbers are tremendously unreliable.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPJPY 1 HOUR CHART – ANOTHER WEIGHT ON GBPUSD

Sharp retreat but still above key support.

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD 4H

Resistances : 1.30950 , 1.31150 & 1.31350

Supports : 1.30600 , 1.30050 & 1.29350

Very Bearish on 4h – EURGBP driving it lower – Watch for EURUSD stalling below 1.10

[GVI Forex 2]

So, let’s look at the Power of the 50 level

EURUSD overnight low 1.0951, then a higher low at 1.0954… last 1.0980

GBPUSD low 1.3059… last 1.3084

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD DAILY CHART – 1.30 ON THE RADAR?

(Note EURGBP extending its intra-day high- scroll below to see EURGBP updates and keep an eye on this cross)

Given the void to 1.30 look for 1.3050 to be pivotal as to whether there will be a run at that level… low so far 1.3059

From our Weekly FX Chart Outlook

GBPUSD lagged EURUSD to close the week as EURGBP retreated so watch this cross of trading GBPUSD and EURUSD.

GBPUSD now dependent of 1.30 holding to stem the down move with key mvas lying below it.

On the upside, key level is not until 1.3305 so expect a limited upside unless 1.32+ is renewed.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

With any thought of U.S. recession off the agenda after a monster September jobs report, doubts about the extent of further Federal Reserve easing have inevitably re-emerged – and now need a cool inflation report this week to keep in check.

Any which way you cut it, last month’s employment report was a robust reading of a labor market in rude health. With payroll gains of 254,000 – more than 100,000 above forecast – a decline in the jobless rate to 4.1% and a pickup in annual wage growth to 4%.

Morning Bid: Monster payrolls see 10-year Treasury yields top 4%

[Author]

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