[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPYDAILY CHART – TESTING MOVING AVERAGE BAND

With next key resistance not until 155.20, key moving averages become the focus.

150.78 = 100 day mva (blue)

151.35 = 200 day mva (yellow)

What caught my eye is the overnight low at 150.50, a Power of 50 level… expect support as long as it holds.

Below 150.50 would put 150 in play again.

[Mtl JP]

here is one opinion:
–
“We will see 4.5% probably early next year” for US 10-year yields, said Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, speaking in an interview on Bloomberg Television

early next year : jan-feb-march , maybe april = inside 6 months hence

more or less matches up with my time bracket

[Mtl JP]

GVI 8:22 pm
on the way to 5%

only a Qtn of how much time between now and 5%

[GVI Forex 2]

Japan’s general election outcome could muddle BOJ plans

Summary
Recent poll shows risk of ruling coalition losing majority
New coalition could include party favouring easy policy
Messy election outcome could hurt Ishiba’s hawkish streak
Political disorder risks causing delay in BOJ rate hikes
TOKYO, Oct 22 (Reuters) – The risk of Japan ending up with a minority coalition government after the upcoming general election is raising concerns that the central bank could face complications in its quest to gradually wean the nation off decades of monetary stimulus.

Japan’s general election outcome could muddle BOJ plans

[GVI Forex 2]

Japan’s general election outcome could muddle BOJ plans

Summary
Recent poll shows risk of ruling coalition losing majority
New coalition could include party favouring easy policy
Messy election outcome could hurt Ishiba’s hawkish streak
Political disorder risks causing delay in BOJ rate hikes
TOKYO, Oct 22 (Reuters) – The risk of Japan ending up with a minority coalition government after the upcoming general election is raising concerns that the central bank could face complications in its quest to gradually wean the nation off decades of monetary stimulus.

Japan’s general election outcome could muddle BOJ plans

[GVI Forex 2]

Quick summary

USDJPY extended high to 151.10…US yields again higher… not much in the way of verbal intervention

EURUSD bounce away from 1.08 suggests possible options defense

USD a touch lower, US stocks a touch lower, Gold up

[GVI Forex 2]

If I wa in the BoJ/MoF’s shoes, I would use verbal intervention to keep USDJPY away from it 200 day mca.

[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog

The One Word That Makes Markets Move Part 2

[GVI Forex 2]

10-year closing day at 4.194%

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD DAILY CHART – KEY LEBEL LOOMS BELOW

As noted in our Weekly FX Chart Outlook

Trend down but above key level

Key level is clear at .6621, which is also around the 200 day mva. As long as AUFUSD stays above it, the downside risk is limited.

On the upside, a move above 6758 would be needed to suggest a reversal of fortune.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – Consolidating

Pausing but only a firm break of 5800-05 would suggest a more than consolidation and a more serious retracement risk.

On the upside, as I have been noting, a break of the record high and then it become support would be needed to turn up the jets.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY testing 150.75 = 50% (scroll below for the update)/// chartwise there is a void until 155.20 so use FIBOS and key MVAs

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – PAUSE?

As noted, 2750 was a potential pause level and high was 2740.

To suggest more thank a pause (i.e. retracement), the trendline and 2700 would need to be broken.

[GVI Forex 2]

I wish USA Zeus (and old time GV member) was tuning in as he would be salivating at the EURUSD 1.0777 level.

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year 4.18%… around a 3 month high

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART- WATCH THE MVAS

Extending high above 150, CORRELATING WITH FIRMER us YIELDS… 150.75 = 50% (SEE BELOW)

Game changer area is the 100 (blue) and 299 (yellow) mvas (150.80-141.309)

Needs to hold 150.30 to keep the focus pointed higher and away from 150

[GVI Forex 2]

10 YEAR LAST AT 4.17%… NOte JPY sensitivity to higher US yields, USDJOY at 150.40

[Mtl JP]

higher yield
makes a ccy more attractive
in general

if things go fantastically, us 10-yr s heading to 5% yield
finally! and glory to Bill G)

[GVI Forex 2]

One of my favorite trading tips is that complacency can be a trader’s worst enemy.

Today is a good example of a market that felt like it was going nowhere earlier but has seen some decent )one way) intra-day moves.

[michael Calif]

re-post:    TIME SHIFT:  time vibrations nearbby futures now Short USD, Long Euro, sooner than expected    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

Now we are seeing some risk off….

[Mtl JP]

[GVI Forex 2]

It feel like a slow drip higher for the US

Some key or pivotal level

USDCAD 1.3838-60

GBPUSD 1.30

USDJPY 150.32

EURUSD is back below 1.0850

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 YEAR TREASURY DAILY CHART (CFD)

Trading to lows (higher yield) not seen in over 2-1/2 month… one last low seen about 2 weeks agoi left on thsi chart

In the absence of news today higher yields are giving the USD some support.

[GVI Forex 2]

I have been searching for reasons why GOLD has been rising to record levels so I can get a clue how to react to any news. Here are the most commonly cited reasons

Economic uncertainty (not reflected in US stocks but China struggles)

Geopolitical (Ongoing Middle East tensions and waiting for Israel to retaliate v. Iran)

Central bank demand (this may be the strongest factor?)

No mention of upcoming US election but could be a contributing factor.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHartT

From Our Weekly FX Chart Outlook’

Short-Term Trend up but…

Market got its taste of the long forgotten 150+ level but failed to maintain it.

To put 150+ in the rear-view mirror, back below 148.82 would need to be broken.

To suggest this is more than a retracement of the broader 161.93-139.58, moves above the 100 and 200 daily mvas (blue and yellow lines) are needed.

[GVI Forex 2]

What is a yield curve? Note, the US yield curve iu
s positive.

Key Takeaways

Yield curves plot the interest rates of bonds of equal credit and different maturities.

Normal curves point to economic expansion.

Downward-sloping curves point to economic recession.

Yield curve rates are published on the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s website each trading day.

(Investopedia)

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Open

US futures mixed ahead of Fed speakers; dollar firmer and bonds pressured

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

(Click below to read the full report and listen to the guys doing the podcast)

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses are generally trading in negative territory, but the FTSE 100 remains afloat owning to gains in Energy/Mining names; US futures are mixed.

Dollar is firmer, JPY underperforms with USD/JPY attempting to test 150 to the upside.

Bonds are entirely in the red, Bunds were initially lifted by soft German producer prices, but ultimately succumbed to selling pressure.

Crude climbs higher attempting to recoup some of the prior week’s losses, XAU & base metals continue to advance.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

A relatively quiet start to the week for world markets leaves Wall Street pondering the sustainability of the recent record highs as corporate earnings updates pour in, the S&P500 index nears 6,000 and the election looms.

The peculiar sight of a risk-loving rally in U.S. equity markets and corporate high yield debt alongside new records for the traditional safe haven of gold may speak something of the hedged outlook, with geopolitical and electoral risks coloring the booming domestic economy.

Morning Bid: Holding stock records, with a golden hedge

[GVI Forex 2]

There is a mini debate whether markets (stocks, bonds, fx) reflect a market leaning towards Trump (and the Trump Trade) or reflects the outperformance of the US economy.

With polls showing a tossup and the composition of Congress a factor in getting anything meaningful passed, I would argue for the latter but what do I know? I must say this is a rare time predicting is beyond my pay grade.

A GV member has been asking me

I have been asking you if / when politics will be trading theme —- is it starting?

[Author]

Posts