[GVI News]

GOLD is back above 3300 after pausing again above 3260 (low 3267)

[GVI News]

Talk is PCE may cone in hotter than forecast … due in 45 minutes

[GVI News]

Lousy data and it is only the first quarter GDP before the tariffs.

Jobs mark slowing will catch Fed attention,

FX is not sure how to react to risk off.

Month end may be a factor.

[ST London]

US stocks getting hit ahead of data.

[Mtl JP]

heading into NY session

10-yr Yield 4.166% -0.008 | 6:54 AM EDT

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks & USTs trade tentatively ahead of a busy data slate and earnings from MSFT & META

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.

5 Things You Need to Know

US President Trump said he is going to make a fair deal with China on trade; predicts that China will eat the tariffs.

Stocks trade tentatively ahead of a slew of key risk events, including US GDP/PCE and earnings from Microsoft & Meta.

USD looks to build on Tuesday’s advances, EUR overlooks strong GDP, AUD is supported by hot CPI.

USTs are contained into data & refunding, EGBs firmer but largely unaffected by a data deluge.

Subdued trade across industrial commodities amid uncertainty and overall downbeat Chinese PMIs.

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Range holds

Ran into a wall just below 142.

Keeps the range essentially at 142-144 where 143 is a neutral midpoint.

Needs to hold 142.75 to keep a bid.

Watch reaction to US data and stay alert for month end flows.

[Mtl JP]

maybe … related to Xi’s “plan”

China’s factory activity drops to a near two-year low in April as trade tariffs bite

Recent reports suggested some tariff relief on the ground as the U.S. and China sought to blunt the economic impacts of punitive tariffs. / …

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Bulls need to hold the lio

Continues to pivot 3300, currently back below it

This leaves the onus is on the bull side to protect 3250-60 to keep the current range or risk a extending the move towards 3200.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows.

… the dollar trading mixed to firmer, USDJPY is outperforming

Month end today

May Day holiday in parts of Europe tomorrow

Chinese markets closure Thursday-Tuesday

Gold trading lower

Stocks consolidating

Looking ahead:

US data: ADP jobs, GDP, PCE … see our Economic Data Calendar for earlier data releases as well

Another tariff headline watching day

Month end flows… pay special attention to the 4 PM London fixing

[Mtl JP]

This is how China Daily reports Xi’s “plan”

SHANGHAI — President Xi Jinping on Wednesday called for adapting to changing situations, grasping strategic priorities, and making sound plans for the country’s economic and social development in the 2026-2030 period. The remarks came as China revs up efforts to fulfill the targets set in the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) in the final year of its implementation and to formulate the next five-year plan.

i.e as frugally as possible
Qtn now is how will trump and Co. and not just US players digest the vague “formulation”, and trust the implementation

[Mtl JP]

beware of honey on lips and poison in heart:

President Xi: China needs to adapt to changing situations – fxstreet

Speaking at a symposium on economic development on Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that “China needs to adapt to changing situations.”

Additional comments
– Urge measures to stabilize employment, markets and expectations.
– China to adjust economic plan based on global change.
– To promote transformation of traditional industries.

[Mtl JP]

there are anti-trump tariff screamers and then there are savvy traders:

Investors turn to emerging market debt after Trump tariffs hit U.S. Treasurys – By Lee Ying Shan on cnbc

“Investors have been piling into emerging market bonds amid a U.S. Treasury sell-off whose status as a safe haven has comes under investor scrutiny”

… The U.S. Treasurys sell-off also saw a rush toward alternate safe-haven assets such as Euro bonds and Japanese government bonds, but given they are developed markets that rotation was not an unusual occurrence, said experts.” …/.. note the past-tense verbs ?

while tons are claiming confusion others are taking advantage

[Mtl JP]

“Critical economic reports Wednesday to show how close the U.S. is to recession”
according to Jeff Cox on cnbc

[Mtl JP]

April 30 = month end
–
month end typically favors the DLR
sofar looks like THE posi-mover is USDJPY

[Mtl JP]

test lalala

[Mtl JP]

ST … are u trading the eur-dlr-eur merry-go-round ?
10-yr Yield 4.16% | 8:52 PM EDT

[Mtl JP]

Re “Why the EURO Is considered the Anti-Dollar”
–
There is a reason why eurdlr is sub 1.15
There is probabbly even better reason why GOLD is where it is at, how it got here and where it is likely going.

As I ve said many times, GOLD is a good centrifugal separator of Truth from Bullsh!t
Trick is to discern when the centrifuge is spinning and spinning faster.

[Mtl JP]

ON DECK APRIL 30, 2025
US GDP

MAY 2 – NFP (should include musk’s turfings from federal jobs)

After that … Jerome’s FOMC is on deck.

[GVI Forex 2]

In Our Blog

Why the EURO Is considered the Anti-Dollar

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 DAILY CHART – 20K looms as an obstacle

Still trying to build momentum but NASDAQ would need 20K+ and stay there to suggest more scope to this recovery.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCAD Daily

Based on the coming close, this is a Bearish pattern.

However, this is the 9th day that Loonie wastes time between 1.38000 & 1.39000

It is clear that market is waiting for something to happen.

So right now it can be split to:

Above 1.39000 or below 1.37650

[GVI Forex 2]

SP500 4 HOUR CHART – 5500 still the key to watch

While chart shows a bottom is in for now a move through 5728 would be needed to fully negate the risk.

On the downside, 5450-00 (5500 being most important) will keep a bid while above it.

Watch the reaction to news, both economic and tariff, for a clue whether this SP500 rally has staying power.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nvidia – NVDA

Unless Nvidia can go over 112 tomorrow, another drop down is on cards.

Supports are at 100.50 & 89.00

Pattern wise – down wave should come tomorrow.

[Belgrade Bobby]

NIO Inc.

Nio still good 😀

4.70 in vicinity

Support 4.20 followed by 4.00

Let me repeat – as long as above 3.60 Nio will continue Up.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Gold Consolidating

Bulls will not give up the current battle unless 3250-60 is firmly broken.

On the other side, a move above 3370 would be needed to put 3500 back on the radar.

This leaves 3260-3350/70 as the current consolidating range where 3000 sets the tone.

[GVI Forex 2]

Trump getting his first trade deal? Stocks pop

 

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Currently, 60% risk of a cut in June.

[Mtl JP]

risk of a Fed rate cut although not in May

IF NFP and GDP come in on the low or lowering side and Jerome and gang dont cut in May
it will have been an embarassing (un?)forced policy error …

[GVI Forex 2]

Heatmap:

Dollar feels offered but is actually up on the day (closest to flat is USDJPY), biggest losers are the AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

[Author]

Posts