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USDJPY
Resistances: 145.700, 146.150 & 146.800
Supports: 144.900, 144.700 & 143.950
After failing at channel resistance line at 148.650 Yen is trying to find next footing for additional attack, but so far no luck.
As long as above 143.950 it can turn strongly Up.
If that one lost, most probably USDJPY will continue downwards.
US dollar set for fourth straight weekly rise against euro and yen
Key points:·        Greenback little changed on Friday after tracking US yields
·        Market focus could shift to US fiscal policy
·        US equity funds receive first inflows in five weeks
·        South Korean won still choppy after sharp rise this week
The dollar was heading for a fourth straight weekly rise against the yen and the euro but remained significantly below its level from before April 2, when U.S. President Donald Trump announced aggressive tariffs on imports.
A U.S.-China trade truce propelled the dollar higher on Monday, though the euphoria soon fizzled out as it dropped on Tuesday and Thursday after U.S. data.
The greenback was little changed on Friday after retreating earlier in the session on declining U.S. Treasury yields as weak economic data prompted investors to raise bets of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Markets are now indicating 59 basis points (bps) worth of Fed easing by December following Thursday’s data, up from 49 bps previously. They have also priced in a 40% chance of a 25 bps rate cut by July. (0#USDIRPR)
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield US10Y dropped 5 bps to 4.41%. The two-year yield (US2YT=RR) fell 3.5 bps to 3.94%.
The euro rose 0.15% to $1.1205Â EURUSDÂ but was on track to end the week 0.38% lower. On April 1, it closed at $1.0793.
U.S. equity funds attracted the first inflows in five weeks in the week to Wednesday, Bank of America Global Research said.
Against a basket of currencies DXY, the dollar fell 0.05% to 100.73, although it was on track for a 0.3% weekly gain, supported by a sharp 1.3% rise on Monday.
EURUSD 4h
Yet again EUR got stuck within a range – rectangle : 1.10650 – 1.12650
Right now it is trying to move higher, with resistances waiting at:
1.12050, 1.12200 & 1.12450
Supports: 1.11850, 1.11650 & 1.11350
Needs a close above 1.12050 of this bar to be able to test higher.
On the down side move can occur only if below 1.11650
SocGen’s Overnight Economic News Summary
Societe Generale in its early Friday economic news summary pointed out:— Bond yields stay lower after relief rally on lower United States ‘control’ retail sales and producer price index in April, curve bull flattens. 10-year U.S. Treasury dips to 4.41%, 30-year down to 4.87%. 10-year Bund retreats to 2.59%. Money market pricing the next Federal Reserve cut in September. VIX set for lowest weekly close since Feb. 21. The US dollar narrowly misses out on fourth successive weekly gain.
— Japan’s Q1 gross domestic product contracts 0.7% quarter over quarter SAAR (-0.2% quarter over quarter), below forecast. Deflator up to 3.3%, net exports subtract 0.8pp off GDP, inventories add 0.3pp. Private consumption flat, non-residential investment +1.4%.
— Mexico’s Banxico lowers policy rate by 50bps to 8.50%, signals further reduction to 8.0% in June. House view 7.25% by end 2025.
— Day ahead: U.S. housing starts, import prices, University of Michigan Sentiment, Fed speakers Barkin and Laubach. European Central Bank’s Lane. Bank of England’s Lombardelli. Poland’s core consumer price index. Romania’s central bank forecast to keep policy on hold.
— Nikkei -0.1%, EUR 10-year IRS -3bps at 2.52%, Brent crude -0.3% at $64.3/barrel, Gold -0.2% at $3,216/oz.
Nikkei Chart
What’s hot
USD has been flipping between hot and cold today around EURUSD 1.12 (the dollar/anti-dollar indicator)
US bonds remain hot (lower yields),,, see if it cools off if 4.40% 10 year becomes a floor
US stocks simmering, trying to turn hot
What’s not
GOLD is down but its temperature will be dictated by how it trades vs. 3200
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – What AT is showing
Downtrend that needs a break of 144.82 to confirm… low today 144.92
Key resistance: 146.24, Intra -day: 145.45-50, 145.75-80
145 pivotal and key to setting the tone going forward
AT = The Amazing Trader
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Why China’s neighbours may want currency deals with Trump
Key points:
·        Asian currencies rise amid U.S. trade negotiations
·        China’s trade truce impacts Korea, Japan, Taiwan strategies
·        Currency revaluation poses economic and market risks
As the currencies of South Korea, Taiwan and Japan rise, so too is chatter that these economies could use exchange rate revaluation as a carrot in trade talks with U.S. President Donald Trump.
While a stronger currency has historically meant a competitive disadvantage for these Asian exporters, revaluation may now be the least costly bargaining chip in their scramble for favourable trading terms with the U.S.
The Korean won USDKRW surged this week after officials there said currency policy was discussed at a meeting they had in Milan with U.S. officials on May 5. That comes just days after U.S.-Taiwan talks triggered an unprecedented 8% surge in the Taiwan dollar USDTWD.
Japan’s finance minister is meanwhile seeking to meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at the G7 meetings in Canada next week to discuss foreign exchange.
Market participants have been quick to connect these developments with China’s surprise 90-day trade truce with United States on the weekend at Geneva.
“This China deal is very bad news for Korea, for Japan, for anybody waiting in the queue, because now they need to offer what China managed to avoid,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis.
USD – Korean Won Chart
XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOURCHART –  What AT is showing
Consolidating
One look at this chart shows why I use AT for my trading.
Sharp reversal from 3120 contained below 3265 (high 3152)… as noted yesterday, to build momentum 3265 would need to be broken, which would expose the opening week gap
3200 is clearly pivotal as above it is needed to keep a bid…. low today 3195 = key intra-day support.
AT = The Amazing Trader
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Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows…
… the dollar trading slightly softer but in tight ranges… EURUSD focus remains on 1.12… USDJPY 145 so far holding (low 144.92)…NZD has been an outperformer
Gold has backed off after yesterday’s sharp reversal… 3200 remains pivoital
US stocks holding firm
US bonds firmer (yields lower again) but 4.40% 10 year trying to be a floor
Looking ahead: US Building Permits/Housing Starts (Apr), Uni. of Michigan Prelim. (May), Export/Import Prices (Apr).
Although the dollar fell vs. the interest rate sensitive JPY and CHF on Thursday, it would have been easier to explain the price action if it had weakened across=the=board. Â Alas, that was not the case even though the US 10 year yield fell from 4.55% ton 4.43%.
So, it seems to be a good time to revisit this blog article
Interest Rates and Why they Matter to Forex Traders
NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR CHART –  What AT is saying
Similar to US500, extending its high marginally but unlike US500 its next key resistance is at the record 22224 high.
This makes 21000-22000 a tough zone, needing 21344 to become support to make a run at the record high.
Support on dips while above 21116, 20607-20740 below it..
XAUUSD – Gold Daily
Resistances: 3240.00, 3270.00 & 3340.00
Supports: 3165.00, 3120.00 & 3065.00
We are all used to Gold bouncing back Up and hitting yet another high.
But I see The Double Top up there….
And unless this Gold buying lunacy continues unchecked, we should be seeing some serious correction towards 2965.00 – to start with.
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