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BTCUSD – Bitcoin
BTC touched support at 108.250 ( rising support line) and is fighting now to stay in the game.
Needs to overcome 109.200 , to be able to test again yesterday’s high at 110.800
As long as it manages to find footing above 108.250, there is a fair chance of continuing Up.
If losses it, we could see a correction towards 100K
Right now just watch those two levels : 109.200 & 108.250
EURUSD 1h
EUR closed last night at 1.13270 and opened at 1.13240 – so close to 1.13250 that I mentioned prior to close, but not clear enough for a decent direction.
So as I said – move to smaller time frames…
Looking at 1h chart, this is what we have:
–         Pressure right now – Up
–         Channel that we are within is 1.12550 – 1.13850
–Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Resistance just above the head: 1.13400/500
–Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Median/Pivotal is around 1.13250
If EUR gets rejected around 1.13500 , we’ll have 3 possible targets:
1.13250, 1.13000 & 1.12550
However, as long as it stays above 1.13250 it will target 1.13650 & 1.13850
Japanese Yen Weakens Further
The Japanese yen weakened past 144.5 per dollar on Wednesday, marking its third straight session of losses as investors digested recent comments from top policymakers and developments in the bond market.BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that ongoing trade negotiations with the US are contributing to a highly uncertain outlook.
He previously reiterated the central bank’s willingness to adjust monetary policy as needed to ensure inflation targets are achieved.
Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato added that authorities are closely monitoring conditions in the bond market.
On Tuesday, both the yen and Japanese government bond yields declined sharply following reports that the Ministry of Finance is considering reducing the issuance of super-long-term bonds.
The move is seen as an effort to contain rising yields after a disappointing 20-year bond auction last week, which recorded the weakest demand in over a decade, with investors now turning their attention to the upcoming 40-year bond sale.
USDJPY
Break of 144.40 failed to reach 145 and as this chart shows hit a wall 3x at 144.76
If 145 is not regained, then range is 142-145.
Initial support at the intra-day low at 143.85… firm break would indicate a top and build momentum to the downside
Otherwise, 143-144 is sort of a no man’s land lacking key levels or obvious stops.
USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART
FX option expiries for 28 May 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.
The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1300 level. That could help to keep price action more locked in near the figure level in the session ahead, limiting downside pushes. There is also the 200-hour moving average nearby at 1.1297 currently. That said, dollar sentiment remains the bigger driver at this point, so be wary of the flows there.
Then, there are ones for USD/JPY at the 144.00 and 145.00 levels. The two should act as goalposts in keeping price action contained within the region before rolling off later in the day. However, just be wary of headline risks and also influence from the bond market. Japanese bonds are raising some eyebrows this week on a weak 40-year auction today following concerns over the recent volatility in long-term yields.
Global Markets
Overnight review
U.S. stock futures pointed to a slightly weaker open, while markets in Asia and Europe were mixed ahead of Nvidia’s earnings later Wednesday.
Long-dated Treasury yields were on the rise again after a weak auction of Japanese government bonds resurfaced investors’ concerns about government debt.
·        Weak demand at Japan’s 40-year government bond auction sparked a renewed jump in ultra-long JGB yields, with some spillover to other markets. “Global yields are giving back some of their gains this morning,” said market strategists at Deutsche Bank Research. The 10- and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields were last up four basis points to 4.474% and 4.981%, respectively, according to LSEG.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda earlier pledged to closely monitor moves in the super-long bond sector. The 30-year Japanese bond yield last traded at 2.905%, up six basis points, while the 40-year yield rose four basis points to 3.348%.
·        U.S. stock futures pointed to a slightly weaker open after the S&P 500 rose 2.1%, its biggest jump since May 12, and other major indexes gained in Tuesday’s session. Early in Europe, S&P 500 futures nudged down 0.1% with similar moves in Dow Jones Industrials. Nasdaq futures were flat ahead of Nvidia’s earnings.
·        Stocks in Asia ended mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was flat amid focus on the Bank of Japan’s policy strategy. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.5% and China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite held steady. South Korea’s Kospi ended 1.2% higher. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.1% in morning trading, France’s CAC 40 increased 0.1% and Germany’s DAX climbed 0.2%. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.2%.
·        The DXY Dollar Index was recently up 0.1% to 99.6650 against a basket of major currencies after a rebound in the Conference Board’s U.S. consumer confidence survey for May. Still, the dollar continues to face downside risks in the near term as concerns over slowing U.S. economic growth and the budget deficit persist, ING analyst Francesco Pesole said in a note.
·        Brent crude rose 0.7% to $64.02 a barrel. Gold futures were recently up 0.6% at $3,319.30 a troy ounce, recouping some losses incurred earlier in the week.
HANGSENG Index
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows..
… the dollar trading mixed but off earlier highs in a market looking for fresh direction
EURUSD down slightly but found support below 1.13
USDJPY break above 144..40 failed to reach 145 and fizzled
NZD an outperformer after bouncing on the as expected 25bps rate cut
Gold is up a touch but still down on the week
US bond yields up but 10 year still below 4.50% and 30 year below 5.00%
US stocks down a touch aftrer a strong 2-day rally
Light US economic calendar.. FOMC minutes a highlight
EURUSD Daily
EUR is going into pretty tricky close tonight.
Close above 1.13400 would be slightly bullish and would provide opportunity for EURUSD to hit above yesterday’s high.
Close below 1.13250 would be of more Bearish character and would open road for 1.12500
Whenever I have to deal with situations like this, I let it be till the morning and then based on smaller time frames revaluate.
NAS100
Who would believe that with all the tariff chaos and volatility we would be talking about NAS100 challenging its record high (22224).
The obstacle is the 21500 area (21493) as firmly above it would put 22224 on the radar..
In any case, expect support on dips while 21090/21140 holds as support.
NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR CHART’
NIO Inc.
Nio just continued falling down, without a slightest sign of strength.
Now it is closing on 3.60 – support that separates it from reaching first 3.00 and most probably 1.30 afterwards.
Resistances are at : 3.75, 3.85 & 4.00
Unless 3.60 provides strong support, this will be just a beginning of a deep dive for Nio.
It’s Tuesday but if feels like Monday.
What Monday’s dollar sell-off did WAs wipe out sell stops. So unless the USD lows are taken out there are no key stops left to run.
This has shifted the risk to the dollar upside but hard call with month end approaching.
Here are levels to watch in EURUSD at 1.1297 and 1.1255 in case 1.1300 fails to hold.
EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART
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