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BoC keeps rates unchanged… lack of reaction indicates it was as expected
EURUSD
I said last night: Close tonight above 1.13750 is Bullish – would call for next leg Up tomorrow.
EUR closed at 1.13700 – below that level, but now comes the fact that I am trying to give you some idea up front and without waiting to see exact Close…
MA’s are moving constantly and I have to predict where are they going to be…so it is never really exact.
So always check out what I gave as supports needing to hold for the scenario to unfold.
Supports: 1.13650, 1.13500 & 1.13350
We had low just between 1.13500 & 1.13650 – 1.13570
Now we have two resistances above the head: 1.14200 & 1.14550
If above, it will target 1.15400
DAX – New High
And DAX took out 24.000 again, made a marginally new high – 24.346, but was rejected up there once again.
I was Bullish DAX all along as many of you knows, but now I am starting to be cautious.
Right now that resistance line above the head is at 24.400 and unless DAX goes above it and finds a footing, things can turn sour very quickly.
24.200 & 24.000 Serve as supports in this moment, and have to hold for DAX to continue Up.
We have to see how it is going to close today….
Ether poised for ‘significant breakout’ as ETH price strengthens vs BTC
Key takeaways:
Ether’s price is up 46% in 30 days.
ETH/BTC is up 30% in the past month, signalling stronger demand for Ether.
Spot Ethereum ETFs see 12 consecutive days of inflows.
Ether’s price is up by 7% over the last three days, leading to optimism among traders that the biggest altcoin is ready for a breakout. Interestingly, the ETH/BTC trading pair has also increased, boosting Ether’s recovery prospects in the coming days.
Ether’s ETHUSD price trading at $2,630, up 46% over the last 30 days.
Ethereum is trying to reclaim $2,500 as support and solidify it as the new range low of the $2,500-$4,000 macro range
Altseason coming? Ether gains on Bitcoin
The ETH/BTC pair is also up 30% over the last month, reaching a 10-week high of 0.02618 on May 14. ETH/BTC trades at around 0.02503, up 48% from the multi-year low of 0.01766 reached on April 22.
If you want to track how altcoins are likely to perform relative to $BTC, one of the main factors will be the $ETH/BTC chart strength.
Spot Ether ETF inflows continue
The rise in the ETH/BTC ratio indicates increased demand for Ether, with institutional investors opting for ETH over BTC in the past few days.
US spot Ethereum ETFs have witnessed net inflows for twelve consecutive days.
USD/JPY: Dollar Reclaims ¥144.00 as Yen Traders Pull Back After Ueda’s Rate Message Rings Hollow
Key points:Yen retreats, dollar rises
Ueda fails to excite yen traders
Complicated economic picture in Japan
Borrowing costs will rise only if Japan’s economy shows it’s strong enough to keep growing in a high-rate environment, Ueda said to parliament.
Dollar Fights Back: Yen Rally Fizzles
The USDJPY pair bounced back above ¥144.00 on Wednesday as traders dialed down their hawkish expectations for Japan’s monetary policy.
After a multi-day yen rally during the back half of May, the dollar regained ground following cautious comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Wednesday. Rate hikes will only come when Japan’s economy proves strong enough to sustain them, Ueda said.
The Governor’s measured tone signalled no urgency to act, leaving yen bulls disappointed — and setting the stage for the greenback to reclaim short-term dominance. High rates typically benefit the local currency as deposit yields rise and foreign capital flows in
Ueda Tries to Thread the Needle
In testimony to parliament, Ueda said the BOJ will stay on course with bond tapering beyond March but will not rush into rate hikes until wage and price growth show sustainable momentum.
He acknowledged that US tariffs could pressure Japanese company bonuses and wage talks, potentially dampening future consumer demand.
Despite headline inflation running hot at 4.6% in April, Ueda remains confident that food price pressures will ease and consumption will stay resilient.
·        Japan’s Balancing Act — Inflation & Growth
·        Rising import costs and a surge in rice prices have fuelled inflation, complicating the
·        central bank’s policy path. The BOJ is in a tough spot: inflation is well above target, yet domestic demand is still fragile.
Ueda emphasized that the BOJ expects both economic and wage growth to re-accelerate, which would eventually justify higher rates.
Until then, however, Japan’s rate differential with the US remains intact — a key driver of dollar-yen direction and a continued headwind for the yen.
SocGen’s Overnight Economic News Summary
— US dollar mildly bid with stocks, United States Treasury yields consolidate overnight gains after upside surprise on JOLTS job openings. U.S. 50% tariff on steel/aluminium imports take effect on Wednesday. U.S./European Union trade representatives Greer/Sefcovic meet Wednesday in Paris.
— Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic: in no rush to cut rates, want to see “a lot” more progress on inflation. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook: Tariff-led price increases to complicate rate policy.
— Day ahead: U.S. ADP employment, ISM services. Fed speakers Bostic and Cook. Bank of Canada forecast to stay on hold at 2.75%. Poland’s central bank to stay on hold at 5.25%. The Czech Republic’s consumer price index.
— Australia’s Q1 gross domestic product growth is 0.2% quarter over quarter (1.3% year over year) versus 0.6% in Q4 2024, below forecast. Household spending up 0.4% quarter over quarter, government spending flat, private investment up 0.7%, net trade subtracts 0.1%. AUDUSD flat at 0.6462.
— South Korea’s CPI eases to 1.9% year over year in May, core down a tick to 2.0%, paving way for further Bank of Korea policy loosening. KRW bid after Democratic candidate Lee Jae-myung wins presidential election, defeats Kim Moon-soo of the incumbent People Power Party.
— Nikkei +1.0%, EUR 10-year IRS unchanged at 2.52%, Brent crude -0.4% at $65.4/barrel, Gold +0.1% at $3,360/oz.
Nikkei Chart
Using my phantom as a HEATMAP shows…
A cautious start to the day
.The dollar trading a touch weaker after not following through on yesterday’s firmer close.
US stocks modestly in the green
US bonds steady
Gold consolidating after holding off a retracement yesterday
US ADP employment and Services PMI due today
US500 (SP500) 1 HOUR
Momentum: UP
Keeps a bid if 5945 becomes support.
Break of 5945 puts a potentially tough 5995=6005 zone on the radar.
A move above 6005 would put the record 6140 back in play
However, anything other than a firm 6000+ break would leave it in the current range.
US500 (SP500) 1 HOUR CHART
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