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This article is a timely one (read prior posts)
In our blog – It pays to be prepared
How a Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Could Impact the EURUSD Exchange Rate
XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOUR CHART – What AT is showing?
What worked out nicely was what I posted yesterday… downside is contained if the trendline can hold
BUT still needs to break 3350-70 for the rebound from 3120 to build momentum.
3300 remains pivotal with XAUUSD find support below it (trendline, 3276, 3250-65)
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows…
.. the dollar trading weaker across-the-board… not nnws driven
Gold is up
US stocks are flattish to lower
US bond yields are lower
All. ahead if a long US/UK holiday weekends which will likely be a cautious one given the number of news driven opening week gaps seen recently.
Freddie Mac – FMCC
Freddie made a new all time high – Wrong!
For all of you that joined our trading society in last few years and have number 2 in the beginning of your birth date – after about 15 years Freddie broke out of it’s pathetic life.
20 years ago Freddie was quoted between 60 & 70 bux, and within just one year lost it all….
The company faced a financial crisis in 2003 due to accounting errors, which led to the ouster of top executives. The company’s stock price plummeted during the 2008 financial crisis, and investor confidence eroded, leading to government intervention and a bailout.
Freddie Mac’s net income dropped 60% in the first half of 2005 due to losses on derivatives contracts used to hedge interest rate risks
So Yes – even big ones can lose BIG.
Over-the-counter (OTC) shares in Fannie Mae (FNMA.PK), and Freddie Mac (FMCC.PK), jumped to highest since 2008 on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was considering taking the U.S. mortgage finance firms public.
Now first important level to be reached is 16.50 followed by 36.90
NIO Inc.
Resistances: 3.95, 4.05 & 4.30
Supports: 3.80, 3.60 & 3.40
If Nio could find a footing above 3.80, there would be a chance for some serious attack of Major resistance now at 4.30
Break of that resistance would open a door for levels like 5.50 to start with.
But for now it is just a wet dream 😀
DAX
This is one pretty bullish close on DAX
It should attack tomorrow 24.200 resistance ,again  and if manages above it, the rally that started in early April will be – just a beginning .
Supports: 23.930, 23.845 & 23.650
Two levels on the down side are important if DAX starts the correction:
23.450 & 22.975 – later one being of utmost importance for DAX now.
US dollar modestly recovers, but sentiment still tense; euro wobbles
Key points:·        US house passes Trump tax bill
·        Trump bill could add $3.8 trillion to debt over next decade
·        Euro drops on soft data
·        US jobless claims suggest stable labor market so far
·        Bitcoin hits record high
The U.S. dollar advanced on Thursday after three days of losses, as the House of Representatives narrowly passed President Donald Trump’s bill for huge tax and spending cuts, even as the euro stumbled after data painted a bleak economic picture for the euro zone.
“The dollar’s up a touch today, but market nerves are pretty clearly quite frayed and all movements over the last few sessions have been very cautious,” said Helen Given, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington.
A low weekly jobless claims reading gave the dollar a bit of a lift as the labor market continued to show stability. The weekly report showed unemployment rolls approaching levels last seen in late 2021.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 227,000 for the week ended May 17. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week.
Meanwhile, a lacklustre 20-year bond sale on Wednesday reinforced the “Sell America” narrative and weighed on the dollar overnight. The soft auction also put some pressure on Wall Street as well, with traders already jittery after Moody’s cut its triple-A U.S. credit rating last week.
These Stocks Are Moving the Most Today
Stocks traded mixed Thursday following narrow passage in the House of President Donald Trump’s tax-and-spending bill. Treasury yields retreated.
These stocks were moving the most Thursday:
Snowflake rose 9.2% after it reported fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings that were better than expected and revenue rose 26% from a year earlier to $1.04 billion. It was the cloud-based data storage company’s first-ever $1 billion revenue quarter. Product revenue — derived from Snowflake customers’ consumption of compute, storage, and data transfer — also increased 26% from the previous year to $996.8 million and beat Wall Street estimates. The company said it expects second-quarter product revenue of between $1.035 billion and $1.04 billion, higher than consensus of $1.02 billion.
Fannie Mae jumped 26% and Freddie Mac rose 27% after Trump said he was giving ” very serious consideration” to taking the mortgage giants public. The companies have been under the conservatorship of the Federal Housing Finance Agency since the 2008 mortgage-led financial crisis.
AT&T slipped after the telecommunications giant agreed to acquire substantially all of Lumen Technologies’ residential fiber broadband network for about $5.75 billion in cash. Lumen’s Mass Markets fiber business includes about 1 million fiber customers, including residential and business customers, and reaches more than 4 million fiber locations across 11 states. Lumen shares rose 2.6%.
Nike was up 1.5% after the sportswear company said it plans to sell products on Amazon.com’s U.S. site for the first time in more than five years. Nike stopped selling to Amazon directly in November 2019 to focus on its direct business.
Shares of Urban Outfitters jumped 21% after the conglomerate of apparel brands reported an increase in first-quarter earnings and sales. The company’s three main brands — Anthropologie, Free People, and its namesake brand Urban Outfitters — each posted sales increases in the period.
Alphabet was up 4%. The stock rose 2.8% on Wednesday, bucking the stock market’s slide, as investors — initially cool to the company’s new artificial-intelligence offerings — warmed to its AI developments.
Freddie Mac Chart
What’s Hot and What’s Not?
What’s Hot
USD firmer: GBP (hot) vs EUR (i.e. EURGBP weaker)
Bitcoin… continues into unchartered territory but faces a tough obstacle at 112000
What’s Not?
EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD
GOLD down after failing to test 3348
What’s lukewarm
US stocks going sideways after bounce off the low
US bonds… yields remain elevated but off its highs
XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOUR CHART – What AT is showing?
The price action may be disappointing to the bull side but shouldn’t be looking at this AT chart.
Failure to test 3348 (high 3345) has been followed by a run through some stops below 3290.
However, downside is contained if the trendline can hold (fall back support at 3250-65)..
Game changer for the bull side would be a break of 3204 support.
EURUSD 1h
EUR tried to reach previous high overnight, but fell short of it.
We have now down pressure, and closing of this hourly bar below 1.12950 indicates more down to come.
Supports are: 1.12850, 1.12600 & 1.12200
Resistances: 1.13150, 1.13450 & 1.13750
Pattern wise – we should see new low next hour.
DAX
Is Dax losing some of it’s Mojo??
It failed to overcome that resistance – channel line at 24.150, and now it all comes back to Supports.
Supports: 23.760, 23.475 & 23.350
If it gets into a correction phase, Major support comes at 22.965
But let’s see how this day ends – spark above 24.015 would put it back on offensive.
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