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Another timely article in out blog from the Savvu Trader
How High Can a Surging GBPUSD Go?
Where is GBPUSD Headed by The Savvy Trader?
Gold falls nearly 1% after Trump extends tariff deadline on EU goods
Key points:· Trump extends EU trade talk deadline to July 9
· Citi upgrades its zero-to-three month gold price target
· Markets in the United States and Britain closed
Gold prices fell nearly 1% on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump dropped his threat to impose 50% tariffs on goods from the European Union from June 1, reducing demand for the safe-haven asset.
Spot gold GOLD slipped 0.8% at $3,332.04 an ounce by 1250 GMT. U.S. gold futures GOLD fell 1% to $3,331.90.
“I would call it a range-trading day,” said Giovanni Staunovo, UBS analyst, attributing the modest drop in prices to Trump’s decision to delay the imposition of higher tariffs on the EU.
“With U.S. Memorial Day, activity is likely to be on the lower end today.”
Markets in the United States and Britain were closed on Monday due to public holidays.
On Friday, gold prices recorded their best week in six last week, after Trump renewed tariff threats on EU goods and said he was considering a 25% tariff on any Apple AAPL iPhones that are sold in the U.S. but not made there.
“We still look for higher prices over the coming months, expecting the yellow metal to retest the level of $3,500/oz,” Staunovo said.
Meanwhile, China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong more than doubled in April from March, and were the highest since March 2024, data showed.
Citi on Sunday upgraded its zero-to-three month price target for gold back to $3,500/oz – from $3,150 – amid U.S. tariff policies, geopolitical risks and concerns around the U.S. budget. The bank expects gold prices to consolidate between $3,100/oz and $3,500/oz.
DAX Ends 1.68% Higher at 24027.65
The DAX is up 398.07 points or 1.68% today to 24027.65
· Third highest close in history
· Largest one day point and percentage gain since Friday, May 2, 2025
· Snaps a two trading day losing streak
· Up 10 of the past 13 trading days
· Off 0.39% from its record close of 24122.40 hit Wednesday, May 21, 2025
· Today’s closing value is the third highest this year
· Off 0.39% from its 52-week high of 24122.40 hit Wednesday, May 21, 2025
· Up 38.58% from its 52-week low of 17339.00 hit Monday, Aug. 5, 2024
· Rose 27.98% from 52 weeks ago
· Off 0.39% from its 2025 closing high of 24122.40 hit Wednesday, May 21, 2025
· Up 22.15% from its 2025 closing low of 19670.88 hit Wednesday, April 9, 2025
· Month-to-date it is up 6.80%
· Year-to-date it is up 4118.51 points or 20.69%
Source: Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet
Here’s what happened in crypto today
Today in crypto, one unlucky crypto investor has fallen victim to a double-whammy of zero-value transfer phishing scams within three hours, losing $2.6 million.
Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor hinted at another Bitcoin buy.
Crypto investor loses $2.6 million in stablecoins in double phishing scam
A single victim was scammed two times within three hours, losing a total of $2.6 million in stablecoins.
According to data shared on May 26 by crypto compliance firm Cyvers, the victim sent 843,000 worth of USDt (USDT), followed by another 1.75 million USDt around three hours later. Cyvers said the scam used a method known as a zero-value transfer, a sophisticated form of onchain phishing.
Zero-value transfers are an onchain phishing technique that abuses token transfer functions to trick users into sending real funds to attackers. The attackers exploit the token transfer From function to transfer zero tokens from the victim’s wallet to a spoofed address.
Since the amount transferred is zero, no signature by the victim’s private key is necessary for onchain inclusion. Consequently, the victims will see the outgoing transaction in their history.
The victim may trust this address since it is included in their transaction history, mistaking it as a known or safe recipient. They may then send real funds to the attacker’s address in a future transaction.
In one high-profile case, a scammer using a zero-transfer phishing attack managed to steal $20 million worth of USDT before getting blacklisted by the stablecoin’s issuer in the summer of 2023.
Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor signals impending Bitcoin purchase
Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor hinted at an impending Bitcoin purchase by posting the Bitcoin (BTC) chart the executive typically posts on Sundays to signal that the company will acquire more Bitcoin the following day when traditional financial markets open.
“I only buy Bitcoin with money I can’t afford to lose,” Saylor wrote to his 4.3 million followers in an X post.
According to data from SaylorTracker, the company holds a total of 576,230 BTC, valued at over $62.5 billion, and is up over 55.5% on its investment, representing unrealized gains of over $22 billion at the time of this writing.
UBS Comments on The US Dollar, Euro, Sterling
Fiscal and monetary policy shifts on both the United States and the eurozone sides are likely to trigger a higher EURUSD in the coming quarters, said UBS.
After having traded above 1.15 a few weeks ago, the bank regards the recent consolidation to 1.12-1.13 as an attractive entry level to position for a higher EURUSD.
UBS leaves its EURUSD forecasts unchanged at 1.16 in September, 1.16 in December, and 1.18 in March 2026 and adds 1.20 in June 2026.
GBPUSD benefited from the broader US dollar (USD) weakness that was initiated by the United States Administration’s so-called “Liberation Day”
announcements, stated the bank. The U.S.-United Kingdom trade deal also supported the pair.
U.K. growth surprised positively, and the latest inflation print came in higher. UBS doesn’t think it will have a vast effect on the Bank of England’s policy outlook — and with it sterling (GBP) carry prospects.
The bank leaves its GBPUSD forecasts unchanged through Q1 2026 and adds a new target for Q2 2026 (June) at 1.40.
After U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcements, EURGBP rallied considerably, but quickly came back to the 0.84 target level, pointed out UBS.
In the coming months, the bank thinks EURGBP will remain range-bound given the somewhat similar situation the two economies face.
At the end of its forecast horizon, UBS inserted a new target for June 2026, which slightly points upward at 0.86.
EURGBP Chart
DAX
After a sharp dive caused by Trump’s another tariffs threat , this time towards EU, Dax regained its posture and now is lingering just below the resistance at 24.200
Pattern wise, in case it closes today above 24.010 it will have a chance to break it tomorrow in one go.
Supports: 23.930, 23.680 & 23.350
EURUSD 4h
So EUR moved higher and broke above 1.13750, but my expectations for today were cut short – with the Holiday in UK and USA understandable…
Now we can’t expect much to happen till tomorrow…
Resistances: 1.13850, 1.14200 & 1.14800
Supports: 1.13600, 1.13250 & 1.12550
Close tonight above 1.13750 would be Bullish for Tuesday
BTCUSD – Bitcoin 4h
Bitcoin played this episode by the book.
It blipped below 106.725, but never closed below it.
And once it took out 108.500 it is back in the game.
Supports: 109.300, 108.500 & 107.500
Resistances: 110.450, 111.450 & 112.050
It is still early in the day, but as long as it stays above 109 sky is the limit.
Overnight Global News highlights
Markets: United States Treasury futures weaken in Asia with no UST cash trading on Monday. E-minis recover losses after equities ended lower on Friday. The US dollar trades weaker with EUR rising above $1.14, oil hovers around $65/barrel.
Fed: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel says “we are really in wait-and-see mode,” adds that anything is possible regarding a cut in September.
Trade: U.S. President Donald Trump extends 50% tariff deadline to July 9 after “very nice” call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. She says that the European Union is ready to advance talks “swiftly and decisively,” but a good deal needs time.
U.S.: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the Trump Administration is “very close to moving” on supplementary leverage ratio (SLR), says change is possible over summer and could lower yields.
U.S./Japan: SoftBank’s CEO Masayoshi Son proposes a U.S.-Japan sovereign wealth fund to invest in tech and infrastructure (FT).
Russia-Ukraine war: Trump says he’s considering new sanctions on Moscow, as Russian President Vladimir Putin has gone “absolutely crazy.”
Middle East: Israel’s army aims to take over 75% of Gaza within two months. Trump says he had “real, serious progress” in nuclear talks with Iran.
Russia’s largest aerial attack on Ukraine since the start of the war was has not had any market impact but has frustrated Trump’s attempt to broker a ceasefire. The lack of progress has raised talk of more sanctions but the questions is what is left to sanction?
Areas Still Open to Further Russian Sanctions
1. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
While the EU has significantly curtailed imports of Russian oil and coal, liquefied natural gas remains a notable exception. Some EU countries, including Spain, Belgium, and France, continue to import Russian LNG
2. Chinese Support for Russia
China has emerged as a key economic partner for Russia, particularly through the purchase of Russian energy exports. To address this, the U.S. Congress is considering the “Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025,” which proposes a 500% tariff on imports from countries that continue to buy Russian oil, gas, or uranium. This measure aims to pressure nations like China to reduce their support for Russia’s economy.
3. Frozen Russian Central Bank Assets
Approximately €200 billion in Russian central bank assets remain frozen in Western financial institutions. While these funds generate interest used to support Ukraine, the principal amounts have not been confiscated
4. Secondary Sanctions on Third-Party Entities
Although the EU and UK have targeted entities in countries like Turkey, the UAE, and Hong Kong that assist Russia in circumventing sanctions, the U.S. has yet to implement broad secondary sanctions against these third-party actors.
5. Dual-Use Technologies and Components
Despite restrictions on exporting certain technologies to Russia, gaps remain in controlling the flow of dual-use items—goods that have both civilian and military applications
(from the internet)
XAUUSD (GOLD) 1 HOUR CHART – What AT is showing?
Reacting to another Trump flip flop, this on EU tariffs and ignoring Russian attack on Ukraine. .
Retreat from a pause below 3360, an AT level cited loast week, has seen 3322 supported tested and holding.
So, 3322 is key support. 3287 is the key level on a 4 hour chart.
Resistance 3340 through 3366/69.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Displays Signs of Weakness Following New All-Time High
Bitcoin has officially broken above its previous all-time high of $109K, establishing a new peak around the $112K region. This breakout underscores strong buyer interest and highlights the bullish sentiment that continues to fuel this cycle.
However, the recent price action suggests that bullish momentum is softening, with BTC beginning a minor pullback toward the broken $109K level. This area now acts as a crucial support zone. If renewed demand materializes at this level, Bitcoin could resume its upward trajectory toward the $115K mark and potentially higher.
Conversely, if selling pressure intensifies and the $109K level fails to hold, a deeper correction may unfold. In this scenario, a retest of the psychological $100K support becomes increasingly probable, potentially classifying the breakout as a bull trap, shaking investor confidence, and introducing volatility in the short term.
The LTH-SOPR has remained relatively low during this rally, especially when compared to the levels seen during Bitcoin’s surge to $73K in late-2024. Despite the price now being significantly higher, long-term holders are not showing signs of major profit realization. This indicates ongoing accumulation behavior, reflecting confidence in higher future valuations.
This divergence in behavior highlights that the current consolidation phase is likely driven by short-term holders and retail participants, rather than broader market distribution. If long-term holders continue to display conviction, Bitcoin is well-positioned to resume its uptrend following this short-term pause, with the potential to set new ATHs in the mid-term.
EURUSD Daily
This is where we left EUR on Friday.
Based on the Pattern, it should just move higher and break above 1.13750
That move should go to at least 1.14800 on Monday
However, if it decides to re-test supports, Major level is at 1.12950 and a break of it would delay further advances for days.
EUR is Bullish and only some major fundamental developments might change that fact.
Intermediate supports: 1.13500 & 1.13050
BTCUSD 4h
Scenario that I have laid out yesterday played out so far – BTC reached higher, but stayed short of 110K and now testing supports.
106.725 is current support and frankly I wouldn’t like to see it any lower if BTC intends to turn north.
Resistance at : 107.900, 109.550 & 110.450
If Bitcoin manages to overcome 108.500 till tonight, we should have another run Up on Monday.
Close below 106.750 won’t be good for BTC on mid term.
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