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US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR – What AT is showing
Once again, it’s the reaction to news that matters
1) Trump flip flop on EU tariff deadline, 2) CB consumer confidence beat today
5900 the current obstacle… then 5940-67-75 stand in the way of 6000
Keeps a bid while above 5850
AT = The Amazing Trader
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Big beat on upside … makes no sense to me but this is what the report shows… USDJPY testing 144.40
Trump on TS… it is a long way to go and a lot of Trump posts until the July 9 deadline
USDJPY 15 MINUTE – What AT is showing
Running into a wall at 144.18, which now blocks the key 144.40 l;evel.
However, only back below 143.60-80 would shift the risk and confirm a failure to reach 144.40.
AT = The Amazing Trader charting algo
Hassett also said India is one trade deal that is closer to the finish line
DAX
As predicted – DAX closed yesterday just above 24.010 and the result is a new high – 24.230
Resistance was broken, but now what’s left is for Dax to close above 24.200 to continue the rally tomorrow.
Supports: 24.100, 24.000 & 23.950
If this scenario works, first big target on the road is at 26.500
SocGen’s Overnight Economic News Summary
Societe Generale in its early Tuesday economic news summary pointed out:
— Japanese government bonds lead global relief rally in bonds, 20-year yield -13.5bps after ministry of finance enquires with market participants regarding appropriate issuance amounts and current market conditions. MoF sells 40-year debt on Wednesday. 10-year United States Treasury -5bps to 4.46%, Bund -3bps at 2.53%.
#— Soft France consumer price index adds to bid in eurozone government bonds. HICP slows to 0.6% year over year in May from 0.9% in April, the lowest since December 2020. Services moderate to 2.1%, manufactured goods static at -0.2%, energy falls to -8.1%, food +0.1pp to 1.3%.
— European Central Bank call change: 25bps cut in June, next cut delayed from July to September, or later.
— CFTC foreign exchange positioning: long euro reduced to 9.8% OI, long yen trimmed to 45.6%, long sterling trimmed to 12.3%, short Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) raised to 38.9%, Australian dollar shorts increased to 33.2%, short Swiss franc upped to 32.5% and long Mexican peso cut to 45.6%.
— Day ahead: U.S. durable goods orders, consumer confidence. Federal Reserve speaker Kashkari. U.S. Treasury sells $69 billion of two-year notes. ECB speakers Villeroy, Nagel. Hungary’s central bank forecast to keep rates on hold at 6.50%.
— Nikkei +0.4%, EUR 10-year IRS -2bps at 2.525%, Brent crude -0.2% at $64.6/barrel, Gold -0.5% at $3,327/oz.
Nikkei chart
UK outpaces global crypto ownership growth in 2025: Gemini report
The United Kingdom is leading the world in increasing cryptocurrency ownership among its population in 2025, outpacing economies including the United States, according to a new study by Gemini.Gemini, the US-based crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, on May 27 released its latest “State of Crypto” report, giving insights into changes in the global adoption of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin BTCUSD.
Based on a survey of 7,200 adults across the US, Europe, Singapore and Australia, the report found that Europe has been leading the way in growing crypto ownership, with the UK in front.
The UK saw the biggest year-over-year growth in crypto ownership of the surveyed nations, with the share of respondents indicating crypto holdings rising to 24% as of April from 18% last year, Gemini said in the report shared with Cointelegraph.
Crypto sees highest ownership in Singapore
While the UK has reportedly seen an increase in new crypto owners, it’s yet to reach the world’s top crypto ownership rate.
According to Gemini’s report, Singapore has been the top country globally for crypto ownership in the past two years, with 28% of local survey respondents saying they were invested in crypto as of April. In 2024, that share was 26%.
Some European countries have picked up the pace, with 21% of French respondents reporting owning crypto in 2025, up from 18% in 2024. In the US, the indicator grew to 22% from 21%.
Overall crypto ownership rate in the US, UK, France and Singapore increased to 24% by April from 21% last year, suggesting that nearly one in four now own crypto globally.
There’s a New Trump Tariff Trade Set to Overshadow Nvidia Earnings, Inflation Data
There’s a new trade emerging on the heels of the ones that became popular when Donald Trump won the presidency last November.
Tuesday’s trade is known as TACO — for Trump Always Chickens Out and comes after Trump backed away from Friday’s threat to ramp up tariffs on imports from the European Union over the long Memorial Day weekend. The STOXX Europe 600 index was extending gains after jumping 1% on Monday. TACO adds a new dimension to the previous Trump trades — bets on a rising dollar, big domestic technology stocks like Tesla, Microsoft, and Apple, and the now-flagging oil giants Exxon and Chevron.
To be fair U.S. markets, which were closed yesterday, started rebounding late Friday on bets that the steep tariffs on the EU wouldn’t hold. Trump’s latest reversal sets up key dates in July for delayed levies on both the EU and the rest of the world to kick in, but investors are busy betting that they won’t be nearly as bad as feared.
That’s probably good news for Nvidia, the chip maker on the front lines of the trade war that reports earnings tomorrow. Nvidia was already getting hit by restrictions on its H20 semiconductor exports to China. The question now is how much of the estimated $15 billion damage to sales will be accounted for in this quarter and how much will be kicked into the future.
The other big event this week is inflation data out Friday. The Federal Reserve’s preferred metric, the core personal consumption expenditures index, is expected to show slower price gains, but the problem is that economists expect tariffs will drive up consumer prices later this year. Traders are scaling back bets on the Fed delivering interest-rate cuts in June and July.
For what it’s worth, Goldman Sachs says that any tariff-driven inflation spike won’t be like the price gains seen after the Covid-19 pandemic. Unlike then, demand in the economy will be weaker and thus the inflation won’t last.
Of course, the TACO trade may have just as short a shelf life as the previous Trump trades. But for now investors should dine out on optimism that tariffs won’t upset the rally.
Nvidia chart
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows
.. the dollar trading firmer after Monday’s sell-off did not follow through… JPY the underperformer
No tariff related news overnight
Gold is weaker
US stocks are holding Monday’s sharp gains after early selling did not follow through
US bond yields are lower… 30 year moves back belk\ow 5%
US calendar… durable goods orders, CB Consumer Confidence
USDCAD
Loonie trying to escape Bearish destiny..
Resistances: 1.37850, 1.38250 & 1.38650
Supports: 1.37450, 1.37200 & 1.36850
As long as below 1.37850, pressure will continue to be to the down side.
To negate that and to have a chance of becoming bullish, Loonie has to go over 1.39200
Right now – Intraday – pressure is Up and targets 1.38250
GBPUSD
Interesting fundamental approach with hints of technical…
I am not saying that fundamental analysts are wrong – at least not all the time, but there is a huge difference between analysing and trading
Fundamental analysis can shed a light on a very big picture ( when things are going smooth and in one direction – not really situation right now) , but who can tolerate going in minus of like 300 pips – and being leveraged ???
So let’s see what technical’s and charts can tell us right now:
Supports: 1.35200, 1.35000 & 1.34650
Resistances: 1.35950, 1.36350 & 1.37500
If Cable hops over 1.35950 road is open for run at 1.43750
Most important level on the down side is at 1.34400 – if we want to see above mentioned levels, Cable has to hold on to it and create a strong footing.
So let’s see how it will perform today
At the moment pressure is Down – supports will be visited.
GBP/USD: Sterling Breaks Out to Fresh 3-Year Top Near $1.36. How High Is Too High?
Key points:
· Sterling gains to three-year peak
· US dollar remains under pressure
· BoE cut less likely next meeting
Sterling got a few things going for it — consumer spending was robust last month and inflation is creeping up, likely providing enough support for the no-rate-cut narrative.
· The GBPUSD pair broke out to a fresh 3-year high of $1.3592 Tuesday morning as traders piled into the pound after a week packed with sterling-friendly UK data.
· The pair was up nearly 1% on the week, before paring back some of the gains (and it’s still Tuesday, lemon). Behind the rise are back-to-back economic surprises, including a retail sales print that smacked expectations in the face and an inflation report that showed price pressures gaining steam.
· Technical traders should note the pair has now cleared key resistance around $1.3550 — opening the door to $1.3650 and possibly beyond, if momentum holds.
· The Bank of England is now seen as less likely to cut interest rates anytime soon. Why? A 3.5% inflation reading and robust consumer demand paint a picture of an economy that doesn’t need stimulus — at least not yet.
· Markets are now pricing in just a 15% chance of a BoE cut in the next meeting (happening June 19), down from nearly 50% a few weeks ago, according to futures data.
· Several BoE policymakers signalled they want to see “more sustained disinflation” before pulling the trigger — a subtle shift that traders didn’t miss. Higher rates keep the pound well-bid as yields stay high, too.
Analysts say sterling still has room to run, especially if US data weakens and the dollar continues to drift. But the $1.36 handle could act as stiff resistance — a level last touched in mid-February 2022.
Short-term focus now shifts to next week’s PCE inflation and Fed speak, which could swing dollar sentiment and determine whether the pound continues to climb or finally takes a breather.
Forex bros should remain cautious around the next BoE move — unless central bankers surprise with a hawkish tone, the pound may struggle to push far beyond $1.3650 without a fresh catalyst.
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