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USDJPY Daily
Supports: 144.250, 144.050 & 143.550
Resistances: 145.100, 145.450 & 145.800
USDJPY still hasn’t escaped the downtrend, and aside of time it needs to cover some mileage – like to go over 150
First signal that the bottom is being created is if it reaches over 146 this week.
So as long as below it – 146- Yen can continue gaining and USD losing.
For tomorrow I expect a higher high to be seen,  but wouldn’t be surprised to see retest of 144.000 first.
EURUSD Daily
Tactical approach 😀
For tomorrow :
–Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Resistance at 1.13250 / Support at 1.12550
–         If EUR closes tonight around 1.13 – reaching first 1.13250 should be feasible for a run towards support later on.
Now this is probably the trickiest play in the whole game – you see it going down, but where to enter..
If EUR closes below 1.12850 , it will either hit support first tomorrow and then up, or it will go straight up from the open.
This is why we have to wait for the Pattern to emerge – and it always takes two consecutive closings…
And when you know that it can reach even 1.13850 before down again, you have to position yourself properly.
Use hourly chart for trade, and keep in mind this daily picture – so you won’t be surprised no matter what happens next.
DAX
So Dax managed to break above 24.200 – level alone is not much of importance per se, but fact that it is the channel upper line makes it significant.
This close slightly below 24K is signalling a probable correction under way.
As long as that correction doesn’t go below 23K, Dax will be able to go over that resistance / channel line – mind you, it is slowly going higher.
Current supports:
23.985, 23.635 & 23.350
What’s Hot and What’s Not?
What’s Hot
Not much
What’s Not?
US stocks down after a big 2-day rally
US bonds (yields higher)… 30 year yield back to 5.00%D
GOLD down but consolidating
What’s lukewarm?
Currencies: USD is still up on the day but off its highs…
EURUSD found support again below 1.13
USDJPY stalled just below 145
US Dollar Mixed Early Wednesday Before Data, Fed Appearances, FOMC Minutes
The US dollar was mixed against its major trading partners early Wednesday — up versus the euro and pound, down versus the yen and Canadian dollar — ahead of a busy day of economic data and appearances by Federal Reserve officials, with the minutes of the May 6-7 Federal Open Market Committee meeting set to be released later in the day at 2:00 pm ET.
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin is due to speak at 8:30 am ET, followed by weekly Redbook same-store sales at 8:55 am ET and an appearance by New York Fed President John Williams at 9:00 am ET.
The Richmond Fed’s conditions readings for May is due to be released at 10:00 am ET and the Dallas Fed’s Services report for May is due at 10:30 am ET.
Earlier Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association said overall mortgage applications declined in the week ended May 23 due to a third straight increase in mortgage rates.
A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Wednesday:
EURUSDÂ fell to 1.1326 from 1.1331 at the Tuesday US close and 1.1343 at the same time Tuesday morning. There are no Eurozone data on Wednesday’s schedule. The next European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for June 4-5.
GBPUSDÂ fell to 1.3497 from 1.3505 at the Tuesday US close and 1.3541 at the same time Tuesday morning. There are no UK data on Wednesday’s schedule, but Bank of England policy board member Huw Pill is due to speak at 11:00 am ET. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for June 19.
USDJPYÂ fell to 144.2446 from 144.3256 at the Tuesday US close but was above a level of 144.1376 at the same time Tuesday morning. There were no Japanese data released overnight. The next Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for June 16-17.
USDCADÂ fell to 1.3821 from 1.3826 at the Tuesday US close but was above a level of 1.3763 at the same time Tuesday morning. There are no Canadian data on Wednesday’s schedule. The next Bank of Canada meeting is scheduled for June 4.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin
BTC touched support at 108.250 ( rising support line) and is fighting now to stay in the game.
Needs to overcome 109.200 , to be able to test again yesterday’s high at 110.800
As long as it manages to find footing above 108.250, there is a fair chance of continuing Up.
If losses it, we could see a correction towards 100K
Right now just watch those two levels : 109.200 & 108.250
EURUSD 1h
EUR closed last night at 1.13270 and opened at 1.13240 – so close to 1.13250 that I mentioned prior to close, but not clear enough for a decent direction.
So as I said – move to smaller time frames…
Looking at 1h chart, this is what we have:
–         Pressure right now – Up
–         Channel that we are within is 1.12550 – 1.13850
–Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Resistance just above the head: 1.13400/500
–Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Median/Pivotal is around 1.13250
If EUR gets rejected around 1.13500 , we’ll have 3 possible targets:
1.13250, 1.13000 & 1.12550
However, as long as it stays above 1.13250 it will target 1.13650 & 1.13850
Japanese Yen Weakens Further
The Japanese yen weakened past 144.5 per dollar on Wednesday, marking its third straight session of losses as investors digested recent comments from top policymakers and developments in the bond market.BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that ongoing trade negotiations with the US are contributing to a highly uncertain outlook.
He previously reiterated the central bank’s willingness to adjust monetary policy as needed to ensure inflation targets are achieved.
Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato added that authorities are closely monitoring conditions in the bond market.
On Tuesday, both the yen and Japanese government bond yields declined sharply following reports that the Ministry of Finance is considering reducing the issuance of super-long-term bonds.
The move is seen as an effort to contain rising yields after a disappointing 20-year bond auction last week, which recorded the weakest demand in over a decade, with investors now turning their attention to the upcoming 40-year bond sale.
USDJPY
Break of 144.40 failed to reach 145 and as this chart shows hit a wall 3x at 144.76
If 145 is not regained, then range is 142-145.
Initial support at the intra-day low at 143.85… firm break would indicate a top and build momentum to the downside
Otherwise, 143-144 is sort of a no man’s land lacking key levels or obvious stops.
USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART
FX option expiries for 28 May 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.
The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1300 level. That could help to keep price action more locked in near the figure level in the session ahead, limiting downside pushes. There is also the 200-hour moving average nearby at 1.1297 currently. That said, dollar sentiment remains the bigger driver at this point, so be wary of the flows there.
Then, there are ones for USD/JPY at the 144.00 and 145.00 levels. The two should act as goalposts in keeping price action contained within the region before rolling off later in the day. However, just be wary of headline risks and also influence from the bond market. Japanese bonds are raising some eyebrows this week on a weak 40-year auction today following concerns over the recent volatility in long-term yields.
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