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ING Comments on Euro, Swiss Franc, Poland’s Zloty
ING said it was caught off guard by the main message from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday that the easing cycle was nearing its conclusion.
The terminal rate for the ECB easing cycle was subsequently priced 11bps higher, with one-month euro ESTR priced one year forward now at 1.71%, wrote the bank in a note. This compares with the extreme of 1.40% in mid-April.
Markets still price a further 25bps ECB cut later this year, but this has now been pushed back to October from September, stated ING. ECB confidence in the modest growth cycle into 2026 and 2027 is a “modest” euro-positive.
EURUSD came close to 1.1500 on those Lagarde remarks on Thursday. The bank is going to need quite a soft set of United States data on Friday to break that 1.1500 barrier above which April’s 1.1575 high comes into play.
On the eurozone calendar, ING is looking out for ECB speakers and eurozone retail sales for April. Currently, the ECB still seems to think that positive real wages will keep consumption supported, despite much uncertainty.
The bank suspects 1.1330/1350 may be the limit of the EURUSD sell-off should U.S. data not be as weak as the market is positioned for.
Switzerland and Ireland were added to the U.S. Treasury’s monitoring list when it comes to foreign exchange practices. This is unwelcome attention for the Swiss central bank (SNB), which faces inflation near zero, a very strong Swiss franc (CHF) and heavily uses foreign exchange intervention as part of its monetary policy, added ING.
While the SNB will publicly say that this new U.S. Treasury designation changes nothing when it comes to foreign exchange intervention, it will certainly make life more difficult, pointed out the bank. With foreign exchange intervention potentially constrained, at the margin, it could favor a 50bps rate cut from the SNB on June 19.
For reference, the OIS market currently prices a 30bps rate cut.
EURCHF has been enjoying a little support from the ECB’s end-of-cycle rhetoric on Thursday. But a substantial break over 0.94 will likely require that large SNB rate cut later this month, noted the bank.
EURPLN rates are still pointing to the 4.250-260 range but arguably the political premium is preventing the zloty (PLN) from strengthening. Next week’s government confidence vote in Poland could unblock this and ING remains “tactically positive” on PLN.
EURCHF Chart
Global Markets Mixed – U.S. Futures Slightly Higher Ahead of Jobs Data
U.S. stock futures were modestly higher early in European trading, with the focus on monthly jobs data for May later.
Stocks on Wall Street fell Thursday, with Tesla a major drag amid the intensifying war of words between President Trump and Elon Musk. That took the gloss off what Trump described as a “very positive conclusion” to a phone call with China’s Xi Jinping.
Stocks in Asia and Europe were mixed Friday, while the dollar rose a touch and Treasury yields edged lower.
· U.S. futures for the S&P 500 were up 0.4% and futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.4%. Nasdaq stock futures rose 0.4%.
· Asian indexes closed mixed, with profit-taking setting in for some markets that have gained in recent sessions. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index gained 0.5%, whereas Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.4%. China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite was flat. South Korea’s Kospi was closed for a public holiday. India’s Sensex rose after the country’s central bank surprised the market with a jumbo 50 basis points rate cut.
· In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 was flat in morning trading. France’s CAC 40 declined 0.1% and Germany’s DAX fell 0.2% after closing at a new record high Thursday. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.2% after closing at its second-highest-ever level in the previous session.
· The two-year Treasury yield was last down one basis point to 3.913%, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell about 0.5 basis point to 4.388%, according to LSEG. “We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to hover around 4.50%, and the two-year yield to decline towards 3.50%,” said SEB Research chief strategist Jussi Hiljanen in a note, resulting in a widening gap between short- and long-dated Treasury yields.
· The dollar recovered modestly after dropping to a six-week low against a basket of currencies and the euro on Thursday. That followed weak U.S. data and the European Central Bank signaling that it is nearing the end of interest-rate cuts. The DXY dollar index was up 0.1% to 98.827 against a basket of major currencies after hitting a six-week low of 98.351 on Thursday.
· Eurozone government-bond yields stabilized after a selloff during European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s press conference Thursday when she signaled that Thursday’s widely-anticipated 25-basis-point interest-rate cut took its policy stance close to the end of the easing cycle. The 10-year German Bund yield was recently down 1 basis point to 2.580%, according to Tradeweb
· Gold futures were up 0.25% at $3,383.50 a troy ounce and on track to finish the week higher on safe-haven buying and a weaker U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, oil prices dipped but were on track for a weekly gain of more than 3%, boosted by the positive noises from Trump and Xi Jinping over trade talks. Brent crude was last down 0.6% to $64.95 a barrel.
Hangseng Index
Gold Futures Set to End Week Higher on Renewed Safe-Haven Demand
Gold futures rise, on-track to finish the week higher. Futures are up 0.25% at $3,383.60 a troy ounce. The precious metal has gained on renewed trade tensions, geopolitical risks and a weaker U.S. dollar, BMI analysts say in a note. Earlier in the week, President Trump doubled existing steel and aluminium tariffs to 50%, the Russia-Ukraine war intensified and the dollar slid, improving gold’s safe-haven appeal. Gold looks like it has further room to rise, given the U.S. Federal Reserve should eventually cut interest rates again and significant volatility is set to persist as global markets remain on edge, BMI says. Lower interest rates are typically a boon for non-interest bearing bullion.
Euro Dips but Holds Strength Amid ECB Signals of Rate Cut End
The euro slipped slightly to $1.142 on Friday, but remained close to Thursday’s six-week high of $1.149, following the ECB’s widely expected rate cut and President Christine Lagarde’s signal that the bank is nearing the end of its easing cycle.
Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras told Bloomberg the eurozone has achieved a soft landing, adding that most rate cuts are likely done—though uncertainty persists.
The ECB now projects headline inflation to average 2.0% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026, and return to 2.0% by 2027.
Forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were revised down by 0.3 percentage points since March, reflecting lower energy price expectations and a stronger euro.
The euro also found some support from broad dollar weakness, as investor confidence in US assets fades amid President Trump’s tariffs and spending cuts, which are raising concerns over the outlook for US economic growth.
FX option expiries for 6 June 10am New York cut
EUR/USD
· 1.1500 (EUR 3.19bn)
· 1.1400 (EUR 2.38bn)
· 1.1300 (EUR 1.28bn)
USD/JPY
· 146.00 (US$ 1.35bn)
· 142.00 (US$ 2.08bn)
GBP/USD
· 1.3600 (GBP 413mn)
· 1.3410 (GBP 896mn)
USD/CHF
· 0.8300 (CHF 415mn)
· 0.8250 (CHF 470mn)
USD/CAD
· 1.4040 (US$ 1.11bn)
· 1.3600 (US$ 1.13bn)
AUD/USD
· 0.6300 (AUD 1.64bn)
NZD/USD
· 0.5590 (NZD 766mn)
BTCUSD – Bitcoin
BTC bounced back from the support at around 100.500 ( with BTC it is never really exact one as range is way too big for some serious precision )
Resistances: 104.000, 104.700 & 105.300
Supports: 102.200, 100.500 & 98.000
Failure to overcome 104.700 would signal another push down on its way.
US Jobs Report: A NFP beat on the upside would likely be the bigger surprise while weaker US data this week suggests there is a risk of a miss on the downside as well.
See a Detailed Preview of the May U.S. Employment Report
EURUSD
Back below 1.1455 after failing to hold the breakout yesterday
1.1404: Needs to hold to keep the risk pointed up (potential stops lying below this level, more likely below 1.04)
Below 1.1404: Exposes 1.1375 and 1.1357
Above 1.1455: Exposes 1.1495-00
Given likely volatility after NFP, watch whether any breaks of these levels are sustained, more important than any breaks by themselves.
EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART
Signs of Trump-Musk feud easing has given stocks a lift
President Trump and Elon Musk struck more conciliatory tones on Thursday night, hours after their feud ignited and then escalated over social media….
…Trump sought to reassure the outlet about their relationship during the brief phone call, per Politico. “Oh it’s okay,” he said when asked about the fallout. “It’s going very well, never done better.”… (Axios)
With the US economy showing some chinks in the armort, this articxe is worth reading as we Wwait for tariffs to kick in.
Are Tariffs 1 Bad Hidden Tax Hike on Consumers?
NAS100 (NASDAQ)
:Similar to others: Outside day. Failed breakout and retreat.
Momentum: Still up but obstacles to further gains.
On the upside, 21800-22 000 remains a formidable obstacle and high at 21897 confirms it.
Supports 21363 and trendline need to hold to keep the bid.
NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR CHART
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR
Similar to others: Outside day. Failed breakout and retreat after target hit at 6006. Potential to turn bearish or at least a stall..
Momentum: Clinging to trendline to keep it pointed up
Otherwise: 5950 is pivotal
Needs above it to keep 6000+ on the radar
Below it risk is for 5900 or below
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR CHART
Nvidia – NVDA
Nvidia made a new high today, but right now it needs to move a bit higher and close above 142.20 to be able to continue with this Up move.
Resistance is at 144.00 & 147.25
Supports: 139.75, 138.15 & 137.50
If it does manage to reach a new high tomorrow, it will avoid a possible correction that looms over it right now.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. – AMD
AMD failed to reach a new high today , but still looks good for more…
I would like to see it close tonight above 117.40, in which case new high tomorrow would be probable.
Supports: 115.90, 113.85 & 109.35
Once it manages to go above 122.50 situation will be way more clear.
XRPUSD
After testing previous support-turned now into resistance- at 2.28400 XRP lost a momentum and returned downwards.
Support that we should watch very carefully is at 2.06650 and if it holds , XRP might turn north again.
Below it faces 1.64500
It is going into a bearish close tonight and tomorrow we should see test of supports.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin
And here we go – BTC is going into full correction, unless somehow 103.125 provides a support.
Below that one we have following supports:
101.350, 100.500 & 98.000
Resistances: 103.650, 104.400 & 105.265
I would like to see BTC take out today 103.125 to confirm Down move tomorrow – as right now this might be tricky
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