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Bitcoin, crypto rally expected to resume after dip on hawkish Fed minutes
Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices posted moderate losses following hawkish signals from minutes of the May 6-7 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) session released Wednesday.
U.S. Federal Reserve officials flagged potential “difficult tradeoffs” tied to persistent inflation and looming recession risks. “Participants agreed that uncertainty about the economic outlook had increased further, making it appropriate to take a cautious approach until the net economic effects of the array of changes to government policies become clearer,” the minutes read.
Bitcoin closed in losses below $107,800 following the release but has since rebounded to around $108,500, per The Block’s price page. Meanwhile, ETH closed May 28 in green and climbed higher to $2,711 on Thursday. Altcoins were mixed — XRP and SOL fell, while selective coins like Dogecoin gained, cushioning the GMCI 30 Index.
Rally optimism
Despite the brief pullback, analysts at BRN noted that institutional demand remains strong. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded 10 consecutive days of inflows, with BlackRock leading the pack.
Bitcoin continues to benefit from its positioning as a hedge and long-term asset. Corporate adoption remains strong, with more firms launching BTC reserves
Looking ahead, traders are eyeing Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures report — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — as a key macro trigger.
BTC Chart
Sterling Steadies Below 3 Year High
The British pound traded at $1.348, below its three-year high of $1.356 on May 26, as investors assessed growth and trade developments.
Weak US economic data, including a Q1 contraction and rising jobless claims, strengthened expectations of two Fed rate cuts by early 2026.
Market focus also turned to a US court ruling that blocked many of President Trump’s tariffs, creating fresh uncertainty around trade policy.
In the UK, Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds aims to speed up a trade deal with the US, with tariff cuts on UK goods still awaiting Trump’s sign-off.
The court ruling may affect the context, though its impact on the deal remains unclear.
Meanwhile, the UK government proposed new rules requiring pension funds to invest more in private markets and local projects, targeting £27.5 billion in new investments.
The plan, including pooling £1.3 trillion in pension assets, faces pushback from fund managers who warn it may conflict with their duty to prioritize client interests.
What’s Hot and What’s Not?
What’s Hot
EURUSD: Went from not to hot with outside day (above 1.1346)
USDJPY: Went from not to hot after failing to stay above 145 but not an outside day
GOLD: Went from not to hot after failing to hold an overnight breakdown
US bonds: Went from not to hot (lower yields) as mood turned to risk offr
What’s Not?
US stocks went from hot to not after tariff court ruling rally stalled
BTCUSD (Bitcoin): Went from hot to not and is now down on the day
Trade Outlook Elevates European Bourses Midday
European bourses tracked moderately higher midday Thursday after the US Court of International Trade in New York on Wednesday ruled that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority in imposing a broad range of import levies.
Bank and tech stocks led broad market gains on the continent.
Investors also eyed Wall Street futures signalling green, and higher closes overnight on Asian exchanges.
In economic news, Spain’s seasonally adjusted retail sales rose by 0.7% in April from March, the National Statistics Institute reported.
The pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 Index was up 0.3% mid-session.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Technology Index was up 0.8%, and the Stoxx 600 Banks Index gained 0.8%.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Oil and Gas Index was up 0.2%, and the Stoxx 600 Europe Food and Beverage Index rose 0.1%.
The REITE, a European REIT index, rose 0.5%, and the Stoxx Europe 600 Retail Index advanced 0.2%.
On the national market indexes, Germany’s DAX was up 0.3%, and the FTSE 100 in London was steady. The CAC 40 in Paris was up 0.7%, and Spain’s IBEX 35 gained 0.3%.
Yields on benchmark 10-year German bonds were steady, near 2.57%.
Front-month North Sea Brent crude oil futures were up 0.4% to $64.58 per barrel.
The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index was down 2.5% to 18.84, indicating below-average volatility for European stock markets in the next 30 days, a positive signal. A reading above 20 indicates choppier markets ahead, while below 20 suggests calmer exchanges.
SXXP Index
Month end forex rebalancing: USD Outlook: General consensus points towards moderate USD selling pressure at month-end, influenced by equity performance during the mointh of May.
So the question is:
Can You Time Month-End Forex Rebalancing Flows?
EURUSD
So scenario number 2 from last night came through:
If EUR closes below 1.12850 , it will either hit support first tomorrow and then up, or it will go straight up from the open.
Of course it is close to impossible to predict it 100% – EUR went through the support at 1.12550 and hit 1.12100 – and then you move that lower declination line to that low….this is how it works…it is dynamic and never static.
And afterwards it went straight up…
Now this is what we have:
Resistance: 1.13100, 1.13250 & 1.13450
Supports: 1.12550, 1.12100 & 1.11650
Now we follow it on the smaller time frames – Hourly says: going for 1.13100
IXIC: Nasdaq Futures Surge After US Trade Court Blocks Trump’s Tariffs. White House Vows to Fight
Key points:
· Nvidia +6.45%
· Nasdaq futures pop 2%
· Markets praise court block
· Not going down without a fight
Trump took it too far with his game of tariffs, the US Trade Court ruled. The administration said it’s going to appeal. Clash incoming?
Checkmate… White House
· It’s not every day the courts checkmate the White House — but that’s exactly what happened Wednesday, and the markets responded appropriately — by throwing a party.
· Futures on the Nasdaq Composite IC ripped higher by 2% in premarket trading after a US court struck down nearly all of Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, calling them illegal and calling out Trump for overstepping his authority.
· Futures on the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones also rallied — the broad-based peer added 1.6% and the exclusive 30-member club gained more than 500 points, or 1.3%.
🧐 Making Sense of It All
· The US Court of International Trade ruled that Trump exceeded his authority under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) when he slapped tariffs on just about everyone. The White House immediately filed a notice to appeal the decision.
· The decision, made by a three-judge panel in Manhattan, called out the administration’s overuse of the “economic emergency” label to justify broad levies.
· Is this the turnaround we’ve all been waiting for? Does this mean that Apple AAPL could now breathe freely without fears of business implosion? Shares of the iPhone maker led the charge ahead of the opening bell, up 3.5%.
· But also, Tesla TSLA added more than 2% and Nvidia NVDA rallied 5% on better-than-expected earnings figures despite a potential $10 billion hit to revenue due to a China ban.
· What else is going on? The Federal Reserve released its minutes from the latest meeting three weeks ago. Officials cite in the summary rising inflation concerns that may lead to interest rates that are higher for longer. US GDP data is on deck for today and the Fed’s inflation gauge, PCE, is on tap for tomorrow.
·
Nvidia 143.50USD
+8.69+6.45%
USDJPY
Extended upsde to test 146.25 (high 146.29) but sharp retreat leaves 145 as the pivotal level that will set its tone going forward.
Chart wise, 144.71 needs to hold for the latest leg up to stay intact.
One change from earlier, and this applies to all currencies (and GOLD), the deck is clear of USD buy stops unless intra=day highs are taken out.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
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