XTIUSD (WTI)
What do you say when XTIUSD falls 16,0% from its high (78.85) to a low (66.24), breaking its trendline and producing an outside day key reversal in a straight line move down?
It’s easy to say after the fact it was a case of pricing in a worst case outcome (Iran retaliation) and running for cover once it became apparent that the worst case (e.g. closing straits of Hormuz) would not materialize.
As I noted last night and again today, crude oil would act as a key indicator of the risk mood so it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out how other markets reacted to the plunge in oil.
So keep an eye on the price of crude although it will be less of an indicator now that the upside failed below 80.00
Supports: Various levels between 60.00-67.00, 60.00 is major support. Expect offers to be lying above the market.
XTIUSD 4 HOUR CHART
Is this the end ngame?

… They’ve gotten it all out of their ‘system,’ and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE,” Trump writes.
“I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost and nobody to be injured,” Trump says.
“Perhaps Iran can now proceed to peace and harmony in the region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same,” he adds
NAS100 (NASDAQ)
‘It has been one-way up following the pause just above 21364 support on the u-turn to risk on.
21900-22000 remains the tough zone that needs to be cracked for a run at the elusive 22220 record high.
Watch the trendline as well as a break is needed to cool any lingering downside risk and shift the risk to the upside.
Look for support on any decent dip while above 21364.
NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

US500 (SP500)
Reversal of fortune after failure to test 5900.
Reaction to Iran retaliation was like a buy the rumor, sell the fact (or in this case sell the rumor, buy the fact).
Move back above 6000 needs to hold to have a bid, break 6025 and then 6052 to give this rebound more legs to the upside.
In any case, 6000 will continue to be pivotal in setting its tone.
US500 4 HOUR CHART

Iran attack appears to be symbolic and to save face at home

Nvidia Corporation – NVDA
We can look at Nvidia from two opposite angles:
Nvidia is struggling to continue this rally UP
Nvidia is successfully holding onto the gains of this rally UP
Anyway you look at it, it is going up….
Resistances: 146.25, 148.95 & 153.15
Supports: 142.00, 140.85 & 138.85
Overall target stays at 160.00

BTCUSD – Bitcoin
BTC stayed short of reaching 95K support, and this rebound looks promising, but there are lots of obstacles in front of it.
Resistances: 103.370, 104.400 & 106.550
Supports: 99.675, 98.190 & 97.950
If it stays till closing tonight below 103.370 it would be no man’s land :
Above it, becomes Bullish
Close below 102.550 – Bearish

EURUSD Daily
After all support at 1.14500 held firmly.
As always I will look at it strictly technical – pattern recognition of different bombs being thrown is not operational, yet 😀
Supports: 1.15450, 1.15300 & 1.14700
Resistances: 1.15800, 1.16150 & 1.16300
This is a Bullish pattern, but I would like to see the close tonight around 1.15450 to be sure that next move will be up.

What’s Hot and What’s Not?
What’s Hot?
Dollar is no longer hot after giving back some or all of its gains (down vs C HF, GBP, EUR in that order) and well off its highs vs, others)
GOLD is trying to trying to turn hot but still below 3400
US bonds (yields lower)
US stocks rebounding from early losses but cautiously.
What’s Not?
The dollar giving back its safe haven gains
Crude oil after failing to follow through on an early spike higher

Looking for a ctalyst for the sudden turnaround to risk oin and a weaker USD, a shift to a dovish stance may have been the catalyst.

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