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One week to the FOMC and a 25bps rate cut
GOLD bulls got ahead of themselves and tried to hang on but with a disastrous result.
US stock market bulls likely trying to do the same as well as hoping for a relief pop higher once the government shutdown ends
30 point range too tight to last. 6673-6768 outside of it
US500 1 HOUR CHART
FX option expiries for 22 October 10am New York cut
There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below.
Major currencies are lacking any real catalysts to work with, as traders continue to wait on key developments on US-China trade and the Fed meeting next week. That’s making for a bit of a lull with the US government shutdown not helping whatsoever. Amid the selloff yesterday and dip buying today, the focus in the session ahead will likely be more on gold and silver once again.
XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE
Get the neck brace out, more whiplash trading
- The big figure 4000 proving to be equally pivotal on the downside as it was on the upside with the meltdown from the record 4381 high finding support just above it (low 4004)
- As noted yesterday, “dependent on 4089 (tested) holding to prevent exposing 4000“, so there is some logic to the volatile trading.
- The last stop driven plunge to 4004 could be seen as an exhaustion move if it is followed by a move back above 4186. Otherwise, dependent of 4000+ to keep the floodgates from bursting further.
- Level the shaken bulls do not want to see trade: besides 4000 is 3940.
XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE
The dollar is trading mixed in a quiet session with the a focus on the GBP, which is down after UK CPI holding at +3.8% in September raised talk of a December rate cut.
EURUSD has traded a tight range focused on 1.16.
USDJPY is down a touch but holding a bid above 151.40 while staying below 152 offsets it
Main focus overnight is on more whiuplash trading in gold.
XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE
- Bulls will be hoping for a replay of the last sharp retracement but this time meltdown suggests high is in for now.
- Dependent on 4089 (tested) holding to keep downside in check and prevent exposing 4000
- Key level on this chart is 3940
- Back above 4186 (and 4200) needed to cool the risk.
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART
US500 (SP500) UPDATE
- After watching GOLD meltdown we need to pay attention given complacency in US stocks, especially with charts showing a lower high.
- For complacency to be rewarded a new record high needs to firmly print.
- Otherwise, still in consolidation where 6675-6725 needs to hold to keep the downside in check.
US500 4 HOUR CHART
Bitcoin Absolutely Crushing Gold with Biggest Green Candle Since April
Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, is currently on track to secure its biggest gain since April.
At press time, the digital gold is up by nearly 9% against the asset that is viewed as the traditional safe haven, according to Bitfinex data.
“Black Tuesday” for gold bugs
Gold has had a massive run this year, substantially outperforming both US equities and Bitcoin.
However, things took a sudden turn for the worse on Tuesday for bulls, with both the prices of gold and silver recording their biggest intraday drops in years, Axios reports.
Some believe that the trade has now become too crowded after a video of people lining up to buy physical gold bars and coins in Sydney, Australia, went live on the X social media network.
The recent Bitcoin rally presents yet another opportunity for Bitcoiners to sell “fool’s gold.”
“Bitcoin is catching a bid from this selloff, creating another window for Bitcoiners to sell fool’s gold and buy the real thing
Gold on track for biggest one-day slide in five years as Bitcoin draws rotation flows
Spot gold prices fell more than 5.3% Tuesday to $4,125, putting it on track for its largest single-day decline in more than five years as traders took profits from the metal’s record run to an all-time high of $4,260 on Monday. The retreat follows months of parabolic gains driven by rate-cut expectations and geopolitical hedging, leaving gold’s rally looking stretched and sparking renewed interest in bitcoin and other risk assets.
For much of the past two months, gold has outperformed its digital counterpart by a wide margin, according to The Block’s weekly data newsletter from Oct. 20. The BTC/gold ratio fell roughly 30% since mid-August, from around 37 to about 25, marking its lowest level since President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff shock in April. Over that period, bitcoin declined about 12% while gold surged nearly 30%, cementing the physical metal as one of 2025’s top-performing investable assets.
Analysts attributed the surge to a “risk-off” rotation tied to global trade frictions and a revival of the so-called debasement trade — the belief that persistent fiscal deficits, rising debt, and falling real rates will erode fiat value. With the Federal Reserve widely expected to cut rates again later this month — a move priced in at just under 99% probability, according to CME’s FedWatch tool — gold has drawn consistent structural demand from individuals, central banks, and sovereign funds.
However, that tide may now be turning.
Bitcoin climbed back to the $113,800 level today after hitting an early-morning low beneath $108,000, with Horizon’s Head of Growth Joe Consorti calling it the “early stages of an aggressive catch-up trade.” He said fund managers are shifting back into risk through year-end amid a dovish Fed and calming geopolitical tensions.
Coca-Cola Stock Rises On Double Earnings Beat And Reaffirms Guidance
Oct 21 – Atlanta-based Coca-Cola KO said Tuesday its third-quarter results beat expectations, according to an press release.
The company reported adjusted (non-GAAP) earnings per share of $0.82, up from $0.77 a year earlier and above the consensus forecast of $0.78. Net revenues increased about 5 %6 % to roughly $12.46 billion, topping the ~$12.41 billion estimate.
Coca-Cola also reaffirmed its full-year 2025 outlook, expecting organic revenue growth of 5 % to 6 %, and comparable EPS to rise approximately 3 % from the 2024 base of $2.88. The company warns currency and structural headwinds remain, but noted pricing power and a broad global beverage portfolio support its view.
The stock climbed about 3% in morning trading. This marks another quarter of outperformance on the bottom line and top line, highlighting resilience despite headwinds.
Dollar Climbs on Yen Weakness and Easing US-China Trade Tensions
The dollar index DXY today is up by +0.30% at a four-session high. The dollar is moving higher today on weakness in the yen, which has fallen to a one-week low against the dollar, as expectations rise that new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi will maintain an expansionary fiscal policy. The dollar also has carryover support from Monday, when US-China trade tensions eased after President Trump said, “I think we’re going to be fine with China.”
Gains in the dollar are limited after the Oct Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business activity survey fell to a 4-month low. Also, the ongoing shutdown of the US government is bearish for the dollar. The longer the shutdown is maintained, the more likely the US economy will suffer, a negative factor for the dollar.
The markets are pricing in a a 99% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29.
Apple at All-Time High on iPhone 17 Boom
Over the past week, Apple AAPL shares have rallied about 6.10%, pushing the stock up nearly 5.9% year to date. Gaining about 3.9% on Monday alone, shares of the tech giant hit an all-time high, driven by robust iPhone 17 sales in the United States and China.
According to a recent report by Counterpoint Research, as quoted on Yahoo Finance, in the first 10 days following the launch of the latest iPhone models, overall iPhone sales climbed 14% year over year, with sales of the standard iPhone 17 model surging by nearly one-third.
Per Mengmeng Zhang, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, the iPhone 17 offers a faster chip, enhanced display, increased base storage and an upgraded selfie camera, comparable to the price of iPhone 16, making the iPhone 17 an easy choice, as quoted on the abovementioned Yahoo Finance article.
Loop Capital upgraded its rating for the tech giant from Hold to Buy, stating that Apple is well-positioned for further gains as demand for the latest iPhone surpassed expectations, as quoted on CNBC. Evercore analysts are also upbeat, expecting Apple to deliver robust results when it reports earnings next week.
According to another CNBC article, per Evercore and Loop Capital reports, double-digit growth in Apple’s services and a multi-year phone cycle are expected, underlining the stock’s long-term upside.
Into AAPL’s Stock Outlook
Apple currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 2.04 on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations made by 42 brokerage firms. The current ABR compares to an ABR of 2.09 a month ago based on 39 recommendations.
Of the 42 recommendations deriving from the current ABR, 21 are Strong Buy and two are Buy. Strong Buy and Buy, respectively, account for 50% and 4.76% of all recommendations. A month ago, Strong Buy made up 46.15%, while Buy represented 5.13%, indicating that the majority of the analysts remain bullish.
Based on short-term price targets offered by 36 analysts, the average price target for Apple comes to $250.03, with the forecasts ranging from a low of $180.00 to a high of $310.00. Currently, AAPL stock is priced at $262.94 – High at $265.29
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