[Belgrade Bobby]

Yep Perry…and it was just a begining of the decline…

[Anonymous]

Hi,

 

btw Carl Sagan, back in the 1995, had to say something about the Artificial Economy of nowadays. 

[SF Monedge]

Fairly uninspiring reaction to data.  Sell side of US Dollar is working better for me early.  Stocks have a bit of a buy tone pre-market.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Resistances : 1.04350 , 1.04800 & 1.05350

Supports : 1.03400 , 1.03300 & 1.02650

After almost a month of a sideways, we have a renewed Downtrend.

Major issue is that low at 1.03334 – the way how the market picked up EUR from that level.

Next few days we should be seeing attempts to break it – so depending on the outcome we’ll have a pretty clear situation.

For today : EUR is trying to reach 1.04350 and even to extend it towards 1.04800

Close tonight below 1.04350 ( just below it – give/take few pips) will call for another down attempt tomorrow.

[GVI Forex 2]

Including today, there are only 3 full trading days until Xmas (Xmas Eve is generlly a half day).

This suggests position adjustments rather than adding to risk should dominate… this would have been the case the whole week if not for the Fed throwing a hand grenade at the market.

In any case, this should put a floor under the dollar with any setbacks seen as book squaring/position adjustments.

..

[Anonymous]

Since NVDA entered the DOW30 recently am not considering the DOW as important as It used to be.

Value Vs Growth e.g.

[GVI Forex 2]

Mixed data

Lower jobless claims
Upward revision to Q3 GDP final

Big downside miss in Philly Fed survey

[GVI Forex 2]

Hi Perrie

Maaybe some relief if DOW closes up topday after 10 losing day streak.

[Anonymous]

It is OPEX tomorrow so as the Quarterly Options do expire by month end.

It is a THETA play and Options are becoming worthless.

Yesterday most Options players suffered huge losses. Not sure BUY THE DIP is good idea.

So far, who can really tell

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Next up US data (final GDP, jobless claims. Philly Fed)

See our Economic Calendar

[Anonymous]

What Charts do not tell.-

Fundamental Analysis, Central Banks playing Vegas and the Manipulation of Capital Markets Neo-Wicksell style has just brought us ahead of another and looming Global Credit Crisis.

Recently the WSJ reported that 70% of US Companies (but so about in EU) have released abnormal, unreal balance sheets. Beside that, particularly the EU the Net Debt to EBITDA is manipulated by capital players (funds and banks) so to increase the leverage and credit as values of their assets – to most specialists this has come to unsustainable levels now months already.

Total Debt For Rated U.S. Companies Reaches New High

The total debt load among non-financial US companies with assigned credit ratings from S&P Global Ratings reached a new record in the third quarter.
Combined debt in the third quarter among all rated non-financial companies rose about 0.5% to $8.453 trillion.
Collective debt has grown for US investment-grade companies in all non-financial sectors except information technology and consumer staples.

[GVI Forex 2]

BOE… 6-3 vote gave it a dovish tilt

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Although the Federal Reserve’s “hawkish cut” on Thursday had been broadly expected, markets now fear 4% policy rates will be the floor for the coming year at least – and no further easing until midyear or later.

The picture painted by the Fed removes monetary easing as tailwind from the stock market for months and has seen the dollar rocket (.DXY), opens new tab to its highest in more than two years – bowling over emerging, developed and crypto currencies alike.

Morning Bid: Markets fear Fed floor at 4%, dollar booms

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN

US equity futures gain, DXY gives back some of post-FOMC strength, JPY hit post-Ueda

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European stocks tumble post-FOMC, MU -15% pre-market weighing on chip peers in Europe; US futures attempting to recoup yesterday’s losses.

USD gives back some of yesterday’s post-FOMC gains, JPY hit after BoJ Governor Ueda’s press conference.

US yield curve steepens, JGBs outperform post-Ueda, Gilts lag pre-BoE.

Crude lifts incrementally off Wednesday’s lows, XAU fares better as the USD pauses for breath.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 1 HOUR CHART – WAITING FOR THE BOE

GBPUSD retracing but only a break of 1.2720-28 would end the trend.

Note EURGBP held a test of its key .8223 low.

Next up BOE: No change is widely expected

[GVI Forex 2]

I posted this earlier

Treat EURUSD as a retracement as long as it stays below 1.0420-25

(Note EURUSD lagging GBPUSD… high was 1.0422… as EURGBP slips pre-BOE)

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a heatmap shows it is JPY vs the world

[GVI Forex 2]

While the BoJ may be lurking pressure on the USDJPY upside is coming out of its crosses…

WHICH ARE WEIGHING ON THE USD ELSEWHERE, LED BY GBP, WHICH IS BID AHEAD OF THE NO CHANGE IN RATES EXPECTED FROM THE BOE IN A FEW HOURS (GBPJPY IS +2% ON THE DAY)… Note EURJPY is up 2% as well (helps explain the EURUSD rebound)

Hint: When you see a big move in USDJPY there is generally a cross flow(S) helping to drive the move.

Hint: When you see two currencies moving in opposite directions vs. the dollar it is a sign of real money order flow buying/selling a cross.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY briefly hits 156.78 and then back down…Conspiracy theory says BoJ looks at the same charts… and if I was in its shoes, I would be in covertly selling to protect this level.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY WEEKLY CHART – Key levels loom

You can see why 156.72 (use 156.70-75) is so impoprtant

If firmly broken then 158-160 comes on the radar.

[GVI Forex 2]

All about the JPY selling after the BoJ meeting.

Key USDJPY resistance is at 156.72 (use 156.70-75) … Cross offsets giving some support to others vs USD… Treat EURUSD as a retracement as long as it stays below 1.0420-25

[michael Calif]

daily charts.  Euro Low.  current Nov-Dec low remains polar opposite to the July ’23 high; will this rally Euro from 1.03-1.04 t0 1.12 ….    gtwo3

[Anonymous]

Made 20% of MY capital although the market was ranging abit

[GVI Forex 2]

This triggered the earthquake

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday projected only two quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, fewer than previously forecast, according to the central bank’s medium projection for interest rates.

The so-called dot-plot, which indicates individual members’ expectations for rates, showed officials see their benchmark lending rate falling to 3.9% by the end of 2025, equivalent to a target range of 3.75% to 4%.The Fed had previously projected four quarter-point cuts, or a full percentage point reduction, in 2025, at a meeting in September… truncated (CNBC)

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year closing above 4.50%

 

[GVI Forex 2]

And the DOW, which looked like it would end its losing streak wound up extending it to 10 days in a row… also, US500 bounced off my 5834 support.

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 DAILY CHART – ???

Trying to give a view after an earthquake hits the market is like looking for a bright spot in a blackout.

Trendline broken, if decisively then probably has to hold 20K to contain the damage.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 DAILY CHART – Reaction to news…

The old adage “it is the reaction to news that matters” proved true once again following the HAWKISH FZOMC.

I have been pointing out for some time that the failure to follow the NAS to a new record high was a red flag that left it vulnerable.

The break of the trendline indicates the uptrend is over but to suggest more scope on the downside 5834 and 5800 would need to be broken.

Only back above the trendline and 6000 would put the high back in play.

[SF Monedge]

The 10 year yield took off like a rocket on the announcement, which is the opposite of what it should do with a rate cut. Bitcoin fell off a cliff with stocks. I actually do not see the activity going out of bounds in percents of movement. This is about ongoing Dollar strength largely and I do not think the selling in stocks will stick for any significant duration.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART – WAITING FOR THE BOJ

Following the general USD trend with a lag on some safe haven flows.

Pivotal level is clear at 155 as this will dictate wheher it can make a run at 155.86-156.72.

Next event risk: BoJ decision

[Author]

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