[GVI Forex 2]

News algos running a thin market… EURUSD high paused below 1.0420-25 resistance while GBPUSD leading as EURGBP retreats from .83+. causing the EURUSD lag

1.05 is pivotal in EURUSD

Next data Univ of Mich consumer sentiment

[GVI Forex 2]

PCE misses on downside,,,

[GVI Forex 2]

30 minutes until US PCE

House to vote on a temporary debt ceiling fix around 10 AM EST

[GVI Forex 2]

Last US government shutdown in 2019 lasted 35 days

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

U.S. government shutdown fears and fresh trade war threats cast another cloud over Wall Street as a bruising final full trading week of the year comes to a close and dampens what had been a stellar year for U.S. stocks.

Already sideswiped by what was seen as a ‘hawkish cut’ in Federal Reserve interest rates on Wednesday, where the central bank lifted both its 2025 policy rate and inflation projections, the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab was in the red again late Thursday and futures were down almost 1% before Friday’s bell.

Morning Bid: Government shutdown and tariff fears jar year-end markets

[GVI Forex 2]

What is Quad Witching?

“Quad witching” refers to a day in the stock market where four types of derivative contracts – stock options, stock index options, stock index futures, and single stock futures – all expire simultaneously, leading to heightened market volatility and increased trading volume, typically occurring on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December each year; the term “witching” alludes to the sudden and potentially unpredictable market movements that can happen on these days (AI Overview)

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN

Stocks continue to slide on Quad Witching, USD edges lower ahead of PCE & Fed speak

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

Stocks continue to slide on Quad Witching.

USD gives back some of its FOMC-induced gains, JPY gains after the region’s inflation data and overnight jawboning.

USTs and Bunds are incrementally firmer but ultimately contained into PCE and Fed speak.

Crude continues to falter while base metals attempt a recovery.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

Key event is the release of US PCE, said to be the Fed’s favored inflatioon measure. This time around its impact should be limited as the FOMC meeting has passed and Fed has taken a more hawkish stgancfe.

See a detailed preview

[Mtl JP]

GVI 10:21 / re “Trump world”

politicking world, world of big ego principles heel-digging
deal with it

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART – Consolidating

Continues to consolidate between the post FOMC fall from 2640-2583. While this chart shows a hint of upward momentum it would need to take out 2640 to turn into anything more than consolidation.

Within this range 2600 is pivotal in setting the tone,.

 

[Mtl JP]

One could think markets would remain narrow without positioning comittements into the holiday period …

fwiw, do I get a sence of some panic lurking ?

cnbc / Investors need to adjust rate outlook but shouldn’t panic, DataTrek’s Colas says
Jeff Cox

thanx jeff LoL

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP reflects a risk off mood with both the JPY and CHF outperforming.

A key catalyst is the failed US debt ceiling vote. While it is hard to imagine a government shutdown ahead of the holidays this is life in Trump world where logic does not always prevail.

With that said, the deadline is midnight today so there is a risk of a last minute deal being announced either before or after the market closes for the weekend.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART – BOJ TO THE RESCUE

I said yesterday the BoJ was likely lurking and today it stepped up with verbal intervention.

The timing suggests the current line in the sand is 158 (high 157.92)as above it would open the door for 160.

As this chart shows, 156.39 is a key support.

Another way to look at it is to treat the range as 155-18, making the 156.50 midpoint a pivotal level.

[GVI Forex 2]

Alert

Trump-backed bill to avert government shutdown fails; dozens of Republicans vote No (CNBC)

Deadline is Friday night

[GVI Forex 2]

All about positions, first before the hawkish Fed and then the not hawkish BOE

Positions getting squeezed

Long GBP (e.g. short EURGBP)
Long BTCUSD/Cryptos
Long Gold
Long Stocks
Less short EURUSD (meaning less ability to absorb selling)
Apparently long JPY

Markets don’t move this way when they get it right

Those who got blown away will pack it in for the holidays

Those who made out okay will bank their winnings and try not to give it back

Bottom line buy USD dips especially if there is a correction earlier in the day like today

Beware of further liquidations if those with vulnerable positions look to square up, which is typical at this time of year, ahead of a thin Xmas week.

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 DAILY CHART – Damage not yet fatal

For the uptrend to be broken the daily trendline would need to be taken out.

To ease the risk,21323 (red line) would at least need to be renewed.

[GVI Forex 2]

To put the usdcad   price action in perspective, here are FIBOS for 1.3419-1.4467 (not even close to the first level)

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 DAILY CHART- Tested support

Bounce off 5834 (just below) would need to get back above 5960 to ease the risk and shift focus back to 6000.

Below 5834 and then 5800 would force a further squeeze on longs.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART – Consolidating

Taking a breather but expect support on dips as long as it holds the 1.4300-50 zone.

On the other side, expect consolidation unless the high is taken out

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

XRPUSD

Breach of a support at 2.17050 will open a way for  1.93350.

If crypto frenzy continues, we can expect that last support to hold and propel XRP further Up.

[Belgrade Bobby]

NIO Inc.

Nio lost a possibility to create a foothold above 4.50 and now only 4.28 separates it from falling further.

I am afraid that if below it, it might go in a freefall .

[Mtl JP]

EURUSD trade

fwiw, I am gaming the pair by heeding the 2-yr rate differential’s dynamics

[GVI Forex 2]

For those trading EURUSD (or any currency), I suggest looking at a chart from today and then reading this article

What Does it Mean When a Currency Feels “Bid in an Offered Market?”

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD over4night low at 1.0344 untouched, GBPUSD key level 1.2486

[SF Monedge]

I think if DX is going to stall this morning it should be around here at 108.30

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY last 157.56

Posted earlier:

You can see why 156.72 (use 156.70-75) is so impoprtant

If firmly broken then 158-160 comes on the radar.

[GVI Forex 2]

Not high impact data but… Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators beat on upside.

See our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

President elect Trump’s remarks that he favors abolishing the debt ceiling has seen a steepening of the curve with long end yields rising.

[GVI Forex 2]

JPY remains under fire, both vs the USD and on its crosses, after the BoJ decision and remarks afterwards werev taken as a sign that the next rate hike would be in March at the earliest

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – DOUBLE BOTTOM

BOE caught the market flatfooted and this is reflected in EURGBP, which bounced off the major .8223 low to form a double bottom

I like to use this cross to give a clue to EURUSD and GBPUSD, the former finding some support out of a EURGBP bounce while GBPUSD struggles trying to regain its bid.

As the chart shows, resistance is between .8270-00.

[Author]

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