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XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE
Get the neck brace out, more whiplash trading
- The big figure 4000 proving to be equally pivotal on the downside as it was on the upside with the meltdown from the record 4381 high finding support just above it (low 4004)
- As noted yesterday, “dependent on 4089 (tested) holding to prevent exposing 4000“, so there is some logic to the volatile trading.
- The last stop driven plunge to 4004 could be seen as an exhaustion move if it is followed by a move back above 4186. Otherwise, dependent of 4000+ to keep the floodgates from bursting further.
- Level the shaken bulls do not want to see trade: besides 4000 is 3940.
XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE
The dollar is trading mixed in a quiet session with the a focus on the GBP, which is down after UK CPI holding at +3.8% in September raised talk of a December rate cut.
EURUSD has traded a tight range focused on 1.16.
USDJPY is down a touch but holding a bid above 151.40 while staying below 152 offsets it
Main focus overnight is on more whiuplash trading in gold.
XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE
- Bulls will be hoping for a replay of the last sharp retracement but this time meltdown suggests high is in for now.
- Dependent on 4089 (tested) holding to keep downside in check and prevent exposing 4000
- Key level on this chart is 3940
- Back above 4186 (and 4200) needed to cool the risk.
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART
US500 (SP500) UPDATE
- After watching GOLD meltdown we need to pay attention given complacency in US stocks, especially with charts showing a lower high.
- For complacency to be rewarded a new record high needs to firmly print.
- Otherwise, still in consolidation where 6675-6725 needs to hold to keep the downside in check.
US500 4 HOUR CHART
Bitcoin Absolutely Crushing Gold with Biggest Green Candle Since April
Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, is currently on track to secure its biggest gain since April.
At press time, the digital gold is up by nearly 9% against the asset that is viewed as the traditional safe haven, according to Bitfinex data.
“Black Tuesday” for gold bugs
Gold has had a massive run this year, substantially outperforming both US equities and Bitcoin.
However, things took a sudden turn for the worse on Tuesday for bulls, with both the prices of gold and silver recording their biggest intraday drops in years, Axios reports.
Some believe that the trade has now become too crowded after a video of people lining up to buy physical gold bars and coins in Sydney, Australia, went live on the X social media network.
The recent Bitcoin rally presents yet another opportunity for Bitcoiners to sell “fool’s gold.”
“Bitcoin is catching a bid from this selloff, creating another window for Bitcoiners to sell fool’s gold and buy the real thing
Gold on track for biggest one-day slide in five years as Bitcoin draws rotation flows
Spot gold prices fell more than 5.3% Tuesday to $4,125, putting it on track for its largest single-day decline in more than five years as traders took profits from the metal’s record run to an all-time high of $4,260 on Monday. The retreat follows months of parabolic gains driven by rate-cut expectations and geopolitical hedging, leaving gold’s rally looking stretched and sparking renewed interest in bitcoin and other risk assets.
For much of the past two months, gold has outperformed its digital counterpart by a wide margin, according to The Block’s weekly data newsletter from Oct. 20. The BTC/gold ratio fell roughly 30% since mid-August, from around 37 to about 25, marking its lowest level since President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff shock in April. Over that period, bitcoin declined about 12% while gold surged nearly 30%, cementing the physical metal as one of 2025’s top-performing investable assets.
Analysts attributed the surge to a “risk-off” rotation tied to global trade frictions and a revival of the so-called debasement trade — the belief that persistent fiscal deficits, rising debt, and falling real rates will erode fiat value. With the Federal Reserve widely expected to cut rates again later this month — a move priced in at just under 99% probability, according to CME’s FedWatch tool — gold has drawn consistent structural demand from individuals, central banks, and sovereign funds.
However, that tide may now be turning.
Bitcoin climbed back to the $113,800 level today after hitting an early-morning low beneath $108,000, with Horizon’s Head of Growth Joe Consorti calling it the “early stages of an aggressive catch-up trade.” He said fund managers are shifting back into risk through year-end amid a dovish Fed and calming geopolitical tensions.
Coca-Cola Stock Rises On Double Earnings Beat And Reaffirms Guidance
Oct 21 – Atlanta-based Coca-Cola KO said Tuesday its third-quarter results beat expectations, according to an press release.
The company reported adjusted (non-GAAP) earnings per share of $0.82, up from $0.77 a year earlier and above the consensus forecast of $0.78. Net revenues increased about 5 %6 % to roughly $12.46 billion, topping the ~$12.41 billion estimate.
Coca-Cola also reaffirmed its full-year 2025 outlook, expecting organic revenue growth of 5 % to 6 %, and comparable EPS to rise approximately 3 % from the 2024 base of $2.88. The company warns currency and structural headwinds remain, but noted pricing power and a broad global beverage portfolio support its view.
The stock climbed about 3% in morning trading. This marks another quarter of outperformance on the bottom line and top line, highlighting resilience despite headwinds.
Dollar Climbs on Yen Weakness and Easing US-China Trade Tensions
The dollar index DXY today is up by +0.30% at a four-session high. The dollar is moving higher today on weakness in the yen, which has fallen to a one-week low against the dollar, as expectations rise that new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi will maintain an expansionary fiscal policy. The dollar also has carryover support from Monday, when US-China trade tensions eased after President Trump said, “I think we’re going to be fine with China.”
Gains in the dollar are limited after the Oct Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business activity survey fell to a 4-month low. Also, the ongoing shutdown of the US government is bearish for the dollar. The longer the shutdown is maintained, the more likely the US economy will suffer, a negative factor for the dollar.
The markets are pricing in a a 99% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29.
Apple at All-Time High on iPhone 17 Boom
Over the past week, Apple AAPL shares have rallied about 6.10%, pushing the stock up nearly 5.9% year to date. Gaining about 3.9% on Monday alone, shares of the tech giant hit an all-time high, driven by robust iPhone 17 sales in the United States and China.
According to a recent report by Counterpoint Research, as quoted on Yahoo Finance, in the first 10 days following the launch of the latest iPhone models, overall iPhone sales climbed 14% year over year, with sales of the standard iPhone 17 model surging by nearly one-third.
Per Mengmeng Zhang, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, the iPhone 17 offers a faster chip, enhanced display, increased base storage and an upgraded selfie camera, comparable to the price of iPhone 16, making the iPhone 17 an easy choice, as quoted on the abovementioned Yahoo Finance article.
Loop Capital upgraded its rating for the tech giant from Hold to Buy, stating that Apple is well-positioned for further gains as demand for the latest iPhone surpassed expectations, as quoted on CNBC. Evercore analysts are also upbeat, expecting Apple to deliver robust results when it reports earnings next week.
According to another CNBC article, per Evercore and Loop Capital reports, double-digit growth in Apple’s services and a multi-year phone cycle are expected, underlining the stock’s long-term upside.
Into AAPL’s Stock Outlook
Apple currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 2.04 on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations made by 42 brokerage firms. The current ABR compares to an ABR of 2.09 a month ago based on 39 recommendations.
Of the 42 recommendations deriving from the current ABR, 21 are Strong Buy and two are Buy. Strong Buy and Buy, respectively, account for 50% and 4.76% of all recommendations. A month ago, Strong Buy made up 46.15%, while Buy represented 5.13%, indicating that the majority of the analysts remain bullish.
Based on short-term price targets offered by 36 analysts, the average price target for Apple comes to $250.03, with the forecasts ranging from a low of $180.00 to a high of $310.00. Currently, AAPL stock is priced at $262.94 – High at $265.29
NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE
- With GOLD melting down, BITCOIN lower, USD firming, it doesn’t pay to be complacent given unwinding elsewhere, especially with NAS100 bouncing off its record 25207 high.
- 25000 is clearly pivotal with support below it at 24886.
- Key support is the recent 24249 low.
NAS100 1 HOUR CHART
Bitcoin crash to $104K was ‘flush,’ not crypto cycle ‘failure’
Bitcoin’s four-day drop to $104,000 triggered what analysts call a “defensive rotation” among crypto investors, but onchain data suggests the correction was a healthy reset rather than the start of a broader market crash.
Bitcoin BTCUSD experienced a four-day crash last week, falling from $115,000 on Oct. 14 to a four-month low of $104,000 by Friday, a level last seen in June, TradingView data shows.
Despite the decline, analysts said the correction flushed out excess leverage, prompting investors to shift from chasing gains to protecting capital.In a report Tuesday, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode said short-term Bitcoin holder supply has risen, signaling that “speculative capital” is taking a larger share of the market.
Onchain, the short-term holder supply share continues to rise, suggesting that speculative capital is becoming more dominant
This combination of signals points to a market shifting into protection mode, with traders prioritizing capital preservation over directional bets.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s open interest fell by about 30%, signaling that the crypto market is “far less vulnerable to another liquidation cascade”
USDCAD Technical Analysis: Canadian and US inflation data in focus
Fundamental Overview
The USD strengthened a bit on Friday following some positive Trump’s comments on China as Treasury yields bounced and erased the Thursday’s losses. Overall, the US dollar performance has been mixed as markets have been driven by quick changes in risk sentiment since Trump’s tariffs threat.
On the domestic side, the US government shutdown continues to delay many key US economic reports. The dollar “repricing trade” needs strong US data to keep going, especially on the labour market side, so any hiccup on that front is weighing on the greenback.
The BLS will release the US CPI report on Friday despite the shutdown, so that’s going to be a key risk event. That will need to be seen in the context of US-China relations and any negative shock by that time though. If things go south, then the CPI will not matter much as growth fears will trump everything else.
On the CAD side, we got a strong employment report recently which reduced the probabilities for a cut in October to 56%. The risk-off sentiment triggered by Trump and some dovish comments from BoC Governor Macklem last week, increased the probabilities to 86%. It looks like the BoC prefers to cut no matter what in October and bring their policy rate to the lower bound of their estimated neutral rate, but the Canadian CPI data today might still trigger some hawkish repricing in case it surprises to the upside.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
USDCAD daily
On the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD is consolidating above the key 1.4018 level. This is where the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally into the 1.43 handle next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the key level to target a pullback into the major trendline around the 1.3850 level.
FX option expiries for 21 October 10am New York cut
There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.
That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. It isn’t one that ties to any technical significance, so the impact of the expiries might be a bit more muted. The pair is now tussling with key near-term levels, with the downside leaning on the 200-hour moving average of 1.1625. A drop below that will see the near-term bias turn more bearish, so that’s a key level to watch in the session ahead. If so, then only the expiries might factor in to act as a secondary floor to any downside price extensions before we get to US trading.
EURUSD Monthly
Supports: 1.16050, 1.15750 & 1.15400
Resistances: 1.16950, 1.17350 & 1.17800
Monthly chart has to be looked upon a bit differently than smaller time frames – Break of Major support ( 1.15400 in this case) would signal a Trend change, but not without possible strong Upticks that should cement the top.
We still have to see what the near future brings, but do not overlook one equally possible outcome:
– If this month closes above 1.17350 EURUSD would still be very Bullish and ready to hit above 1.19200, targeting 1.22500
– However, there is an interesting resistance at 1.20300 that might limit any further upside and in that case EUR would just make an extension to the current Rally.
So for now treat EUR with a caution as it can show its teeth suddenly and without any compassion…
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