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XAUUSD (GOLD): Once again in unchartered territory
- New record high (4104)
- When in unchartered territory, big figures like 4100 increase in importance.
- What worked out for day traders today was following this logic posted earlier
- Keeps a strong bid while above the former record at 4059
- Hard to chase so keep an eye on 4059 as sort of a pivot
- Intra-day support now starts at 4080 (overnight high)
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART[JM1]
NAS100 (NASDAQ)) Buying the dip
- What worked out for day traders would have been to followi my logic (see below) buying a decent dip (24771 => 24550)
- Hard to suggest chasing but should be support on any decent  (deep) dip today should one occur with the deck cleared of sell stops.
NAS100 4 HOUR CHART
Many years ago when I ran a commodities fx trading room we had a great Columbus Day when the futures market went nuts selling USD. We had to scour the world to find banks we could deal with to arbitrage between cash and futures until we found a US bank branch in Panama to trade with
Times have changed with electronic platforms providing liquidity so doubt there will be a replay.
Focus more on GOLD as it extends it record high towards 4100 despite a better risk mood, stocks keeping a bid but off its highs after the overnight pop, and the dollar up except vs AUD but with little enthusiasm.
Trading tip: Testing strength of trend
- The test of the strength of a trend is whether a retracement is followed by a new high (low) with the trend.
- If not, then it gives a clue as well the other way (i.e. retracement or consolidation)
- The same principle applies to intra-day trends
Test of trend strength:
- Passed the test ;: XAUUSD seting a new record highb at today after retracement low at 3944
- Jury is out: Whether US500 and/or NASS100 can set new record highs aftrer sharp retracements
US500 (SP500): Rebound faces obstacles
- Rebound would need to regain 6693-6702 to negate the breakdown.
- High so far at 6665 is around the 61.8% retracement level.
- Hard to chase here with obstacles aboive the market but with sell stops exhausted, should find support on any decent (deep) dip.
US500 4 HOUR CHART
NAS100 Â 25000 back on the radar
- Focus on US stocks with banks closed for Columbus Day
- On this chart, 24793-24975 break was a trigger for Friday’s meltdown so a key resistance zone along with psychological 25000.
- Hard to suggest chasing while below 25000 but should be support on any decent (deep) dip today should one occur with the deck cleared of sell stops.
NAS100 4 HOUR CHART
Forex Market Snapshot
With Trump toning down the tariff rhetoric over the weekend markets have calmed down to start the week.
In forex, the dollar is treading generally firmer, JPY and CHF are underperforming, AUD (higher) is outperforming.
Note the U.S. Coumbus Day holiday sees banks closed by stock markets open.
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