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Squeeze on Iran
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Newsquawk US SMarket Wrap 2
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Newsquawk US Market Wrap 1: Dollar hot and curve steepens on DKP Fed probe
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In our blog
Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Could Rock Markets
XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE
- While stocks and the dollar have come off the lows and bond yields have slipped off the highs, XAUUSD continues to march higher, extending its record high above 4600.
- Keeps a bid while above 4550-4600, stronger bid while above 4600.
- Resistance is only at the latest (record high) as it trades in unchartered waters.
- Will see if divergence lasts
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART
This is a good one
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Market Update
- Forex: USD remains on the defensive but off its lows as the risk off tone eases..JPY underperforming with USDJPY unable to shake from 158.
- US Stocks: Not following through on the overnight sell-off but consolidating while below recent highs (e.g. US500 6975, NAS100 25808)
- XAUUSD: Surged to a new record high above 4600 as it remains as it continues tio attract safe haven flows, even when risk off eases.
- BTCUSD: Continues to struggle trying to build momentum but while above 90K there is hopo for the bulls.
Fed independence concerns
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US500 (SP500) UPDATE
- Retreat from the new record high (6975) not fatal after a brief break of 6814 found support just below it.
- Now dependent on 6887-93 and the trendline holding to keep the downside contained.
- What has changed from last week is there should not be any key buy stops unless the 6874 is taken out.
US500 4 HOUR CHART
Newsquawk US Pre-Market Movers
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The case against Powell
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Traditionally it is the bond market that holds policymakers accountable. US 10 year 4.20% has been acting as a pivotal level and the yield move higher back to it overnight followed the legal attack on Fed Chair Powell.
So keep an eye on 4.20% as higher yields in this case reflect concerns over Fed independence and are therefore not supportive for the UYSD,
This Week’s Market-Moving Events
The week ahead is pivotal for global markets, with investors focused on inflation data that will shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s January 27–28 policy meeting. In the U.S., December CPI and November PPI reports will clarify whether price pressures—especially those linked to tariffs and services—are continuing to ease. While the labor market remains soft, unemployment at 4.4% suggests stability rather than deterioration, giving policymakers room to stay patient as they assess inflation progress.
Recent data point to moderating inflation, with headline and core CPI drifting closer to the Fed’s 2% target. Declining energy prices may pull down headline inflation further, but policymakers remain most concerned about services inflation, particularly outside of housing. With U.S. growth still running above its longer-run potential, most participants at the Federal Open Market Committee are likely to favor cautious, incremental adjustments rather than aggressive easing.
Globally, the calendar is packed with key releases that will help frame the growth outlook. China’s trade data, India’s inflation readings, and GDP and industrial production figures from the UK and eurozone will provide insight into demand trends. In the U.S., retail sales, housing data, jobless claims, and regional Fed manufacturing surveys round out a busy week that will help determine whether disinflation is firmly back on track—or merely pausing. (Econoday)
Newsquawk Daily US Opening News
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Is the USD a safe haven?
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Forex Market Snapshot
The week has started off in a risk off mood after threats to indict Fed Chair Powell and President Trump’s stepped up threats against Iran saw gold surge to a new record high, the USD tumble, US stocks trade weaker and US bond yields rise (for the wrong reasons). In addition, President Trump’s call for a 10% cap on credit card interest for one year may be weighing on stocks.
- EURUSD easily broke through 1,1659 but is still below 1.,17
- GBPUSD has followed but remains below 1.135
- USDJPY is back below 158 and lagging with Tokyo closed Monday for a holiday.
- CHF is so far the outperformer.
- All this volatility and we still face the SCOTUS tariff ruling on Wednesday.
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