[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDAT

• Struggling to sustain momentum above 28800, in its bid to build it for a run at the record 26274 high.
• On the downside, needs to hold support at 25676-26702 to keep the bid pointed higher but only below 25462-25548 would negate the upside risk.

NAS100 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Crude oil ticks up, bond yields tiock down on this Help is on its way headline

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[GVI Forex 2]

Trump pressuring the Fed raises worries about its future independency 10 year 4.183% last

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[Mtl JP]

on yak deck at 10
fed’s musalem

[GVI Forex 2]

Fed remains in wait-and-see mode

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[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1669
back N of its 50day
see if it keeps that direction

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Pause just below 7000 following the US CPI report confirms this psychological level as the key target.
• If 6985 becomes support then a test of 7000 is likely.
• If not, then keeps a bid while above 6960. Below 6960 suggests 7000 is too tough a hill yo climb for today at least. Fallback support, 6950, 6910–25

US500 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

SCOTUS on tariffs

Next Potential Opinion Day

The Supreme Court has scheduled January 14, 2026, as an opinion day, which means it could release decisions then, including the tariff case. However, the court doesn’t say in advance which opinions will actually be issued that day.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1665 (and some other pair I eyeball) are rather calm despite goading by such luminaries as yellen and some ancient colleagues of hers) for markets to panic about some alleged threats to “independence”.

More interesting – to me – is the yen and the underlaying energy vectors driving it.

[GVI Forex 2]

US CPI Core beats (0.1 lower vs consensus

Yields down, stocks up, USD slips

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[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year pre-CPI

4.20% yield remains pivotal (high today 4.202%)

[GVI Forex 2]

<p style=”text-align: center;”>Newsquawk US Pre-Market Movers

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[GVI Forex 2]

Next key focus: US December CPI

Click for a detailed preview

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

4 oil tankers hit today

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[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY UPDATE

• 2025 high at 158.85 broken, marginally so far (high 159.05)
• Significance is that there is a void above it until the major 161.95 2024 high.
• This is why 159-160 will likely put traders on alert for the BoJ but as noted in the Forex market Snapshot, there should be questions whether the government really objects to a weaker jPY other than the pace of its slide.
• On the downside, watch 158.85 to see if there will be a confirmed breakout. Otherwise, only back below 158 would cool the risk.
• Intra-day support ay 158.50-65.

USDJPY WEEKLY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

Posted yesterday

While stocks and the dollar have come off the lows and bond yields have slipped off the highs, XAUUSD continues to march higher, extending its record high above 4600.

Will the divergence last?

• Finally some logic with XAUUSD retracing from its new record high back below 4600.
• With that said, XAUUSD keeps its bid while above 4500-4550 with the focus on the high while the top end holds.
• Intra-day resistance at 4600-00 ahead of the 4630 high.

XAUUSD  4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

<p style=”text-align: center;”>Forex Market Snapshot</p>
The focus is on a weaker JPY, not only vs the dollar but vs other currencies. This includes currencies such as the EUR and CHF, which set record highs vs. the Japanese currency. This followed a weak verbal intervention threat that was quickly shrugged off.

Do Japanese officials really object to a weaker JPY or are they simply paying lip service? With the focus on fiscal stimulus and the Nikkei setting a new record high, why should they be concerned other than the pace of the JPY’s slide?

With that said, 159-160 is likely to be a sticky zone with the major 161.95 (2024 high)  looming above.

For today, watch US CPI which is expected to rebound from a government shutdown distorted result in November.

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX Hovers Around Record Highs

The DAX in Frankfurt was little changed near record highs of 24,415 on Tuesday, amid some caution ahead of a key US inflation report and the kickoff of the quarterly earnings season among major banks, including JP Morgan.

Meanwhile, investors continued to monitor geopolitical developments while also weighing risks to the central bank’s independence.

Among stocks, Symrise surged nearly 7% on plans to divest its terpenes business and launch a large share buyback.

[Belgrade Bobby]

FX option expiries for 13 January 10am New York cut

[Belgrade Bobby]

Japan PM Takaichi reportedly states intention to dissolve parliament’s lower house

It is reported that she has conveyed to a ruling party executive of her intention to dissolve parliament’s lower house, which could set up for a snap election in either early or the middle of February. The next ordinary Diet session is scheduled for 23 January and that is the timing in which Takaichi is reported to be making this call.

For some context, it is standard convention for Japan’s policymakers to convene for the ordinary Diet session in January since 1992. However, it would mark the first time since then that the lower house is dissolved at the very start of the calendar year.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Daily

160.000 – this is where we might see some increasing blubbering and even covert intervention…

Because if that one goes – 162.000 here we come…and next you know 177.000 becomes a new Black 😀

But…only if any of them is serious …that is…

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

The question is: Is it the time for EUR to turn the tide?

Two levels on the upper side will decide on it – 1.16700 & 1.16950

So – break of 1.16700 would be the first signal, but 1.16950 might still keep the downward pressure..

1.16350 stays as a Major support that separates EURUSD from going straight for 1.15200

Current Pressure – UP

[Mtl JP]

reuters reported earlier that “Japan finance minister says US Treasury’s Bessent shares concerns about weak yen”. Not sure that scott is tickled by the idea that he has a spokeswoman on his behalf

[Mtl JP]

USDJPY 158.90 as I type

as I hear squales
both of pleasure and of agony
sentiment , sentiment

[Mtl JP]

and after 158.87 is just a short hop to 161.90

[Mtl JP]

USDJPY 158.43 as I type

hey ho hey ho katayama, one (or two) of you suits has to come out swinging un-equivocally about rate hike prospects

guess what: 158.87 could be history soon

[Mtl JP]

GVI 11:36 – it does not get cuter: usdjpy popped UP 10 or 15 pips on the “concern”

she sounds like an amature, maybe she is ?

[Mtl JP]

So we are now entering “hot” – post-holiday – season, most if not all players are at work.

Current DX is at 98.23 High 99.23 last 5 days.
I think … that inside a month from now, ie. by mid Fed, the dollar will be down by approx 5%.

ps.: NO guarantee.

[GVI Forex 2]

Verbal intervention; Katayama says she shared concerns with US Treas Secy Bessent over the weak JPY

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