[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Market Update

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[GVI Forex 2]

Trump’s red line

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[Mtl JP]

GVI 12:20 NYT not helping jerome with their choice of pic

[Mtl JP]

something making euro turn uP 20-ish pips suddenlike
or dlr taking a mini-puke

[GVI Forex 2]

It is not clear whether news algos reacted to this headline but USD just spiked down. Big winner has been XAUUSD, which extended its gap opening to a new record high.

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[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog

Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Could Rock Markets

Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Could Trigger Market Turmoil: Winners, Losers, and What Investors Should Expect

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead: 12th-16th January 2026

Highlights include Start of US earnings, US CPI, US Retail Sales, UK GDP, and China Trade

[GVI Forex 2]

2026 Global Markets Scorecard

Consensus forecasts to start 2026 were calling for firmer US stocks, firmer Gold, a weaker dollar, most notably vs the JPY based on divergent monetary policies between the BoJ and the Fed, and a dollar and sharply higher Bitcoin,

Scorecard after the first full week of trading (focus in 2nd week will be on whether momentum builds further):

• US stocks (up): DJIA and US500 setting record highs while NAS100trying to play catch up.
• Gold: Closed the week at 4500, putting the record 4549 high on the radar.
• US dollar: Confounding the consensus by ending the week on a firm note.
• Bitcoin: Disappointing start after not able to sustain a breakout from its congestion range.

Test now comes in the second week where SCOTUS will issue its ruling on the legality of tariffs on Wednesday. In addition, Trump’s choice of a new Fed Chair can be announced at any time (perfect for a distraction).

USDX (US DOLLAR INDEX) DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

BTCUSD (BITCOIN) UPDATE

• Disappointing but not fatal start to 2036
• It’s hard to find a correlation for Bitcoin with the relationship with tech shares breaking down. G
• This leaves it back into a congestion range bounded by 89-92K (can also use 88-92K) where 90K is clearly pivotal in dictating its tone going forward.

BTCUSD  4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Wrap 2

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[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Wrap 1

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[GVI News]

Alert

WASHINGTON – The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue its next rulings on January 14 as several major cases remain pending including the legality of President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• Now that stops have been taken out above 4500, this becomes the pivotal level with the record high at 4549 exposed if it becomes support.
• New 2026 high at 4516 stands in the way of 4549.
• On the downside, keeps a bid while above 4459 and the trendline.

XAUUSD  4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 trading to a new record high, just marginally so far.

NAS100 eyeing but still below key resistance above 25800

As I said at the start of the week, how markets close the week is more important than how they start out. Stocks seem set to end the week ion a positive note.

[Mtl JP]

OIL

Both Brent and WTI look as if they ll close the week on high(er) note

[Mtl JP]

Any time now …
–
Yesty Colby Smith in NYT:
“Trump Says He Has Made Up His Mind on His Fed Chair Pick”
The president stopped short of announcing his selection, but when asked about Kevin A. Hassett, his top economic adviser, he said he was “certainly one of the people that I like.”

Trick ? Q is … how – if – to trade the eventual announcement

[Mtl JP]

CNBC
–
“Trump will use other tariff authorities to get to ‘same place’ if Supreme Court rules against him: Hassett” – By Yun Li

bessent said something similar fair while ago, so really nothing new as far as yik-yak goes

[Mtl JP]

CNBC
–
Supreme Court holds off on Trump tariff ruling for now — what’s at stake for economy
The decision is poised to have far-reaching impacts on not only trade policy but also the U.S. fiscal situation.

By Jeff Cox (yesty report but updated approx an hour ago)

The Supreme Court did not rule Friday on the legality of broad tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, leaving markets still awaiting a decision poised to have far-reaching impacts on trade policy and the U.S. fiscal situation.

There had been speculation that the tariff ruling would be issued on Friday, but the Supreme Court released just one opinion for the day, and it was unrelated to tariffs.

It is unclear when the tariff ruling will be released. …/.

[Mtl JP]

Supreme Court yet to …. declare itself on the president’s tariffs

[GVI Forex 2]

US bonds yields down (10 year backs off from brief 4.20% test)… USD following but so far not enough to reverse

[Mtl JP]

USDYEN 157.90 as I type, HoD 158.18

Odds are puppy will close the day/week under 158
(famous last words)

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD UPDATE

• Pause below the 1.1614 target (low 1.1618) has so far checked the downside but would need to regain 1.1650+ to postpone the risk.

EURUSD DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• Back on firm ground after the sharp but brief spike lower.
• Still needs to take out 25808 and 25842 to build momentum for a run at the record 26274 high.
• Otherwise, it is just consolidation in a choppy range, currently with an upward tilt.
• Intra-day, finds support as long as it trades above 25435.

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

And stocks dip has been met with buyers… US500 15 Minute Chart

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks dipped, bond yields dipped, USD up after the Scotus no ruling today headline

[GVI Forex 2]

No tariff ruling today

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[GVI Forex 2]

U of M slight beat (5 year inflation expectations tick up)

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[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year yield testing 4.20% (acts like  pivot)… USDJPY testing 158

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Back on firm ground after a choppy post-US jobs reaction.
• Keeps a bid focused on the record 6963 high as long as trade is above 6823.but contained unless the high is taken out
• Below that are layers of support with 6886-93 the key area.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

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