[GVI Forex 2]

I have been scanning the news looking for reasons for the bounce in USDJPY back to 144

I have so far come up empty but this caught my eye

The COT (futures) report showed a huge drop in long positions, which explains some of the recent USDJPY support

Open interest fell -47%, fastest weekly pace on record

177k contracts closed

Open interest at 376.5k contracts in the prior week was its second highest level on record

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report is a weekly market report that summarizes the holdings of participants in the US futures market. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes the report every Friday at 3:30 PM Eastern Time, and it covers the previous Tuesday’s trading day.

(AI Overview)

[GVI Forex 2]

I have been scanning the news looking for reasons for the bounce in USDJPY back to 144

I have so far come up empty but this caught my eye

The COT (futures) report showed a huge drop in long positions, which explains some of USSDJPY support

Open interest fell -47%, fastest weekly pace on record

The -177k contracts closed

Open interest at 376.5k contracts in the prior week prior was its second highest level on record

[GVI Forex 2]

The forex market is largely controlled by interest rates. In fact, the interest rate is generally the single most important factor when it comes to determining the value of that specific currency. Investors will constantly look at how the interest rate on one currency compares to another, and they will use this information to take action in the markets.

Interest Rates and Why they Matter to Forex Traders

[GVI Forex 2]

Markets trade on interest rate expectations… looking at how they have shifted after the weaker Consumer Confidence report from 50/50 to 62/38 in favor of a 50bps rate cut at the Nov FOMC, it explains today’s (weaker USD) price moves

CME Fed Watch (62/38)

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 DAILY CHART – 20k ON THE RADAR?

Weaker US data => lower yields => weaker USD => higher NAS100

Chart is clear, firm break of 19372 i needed to make a run at 20K with major levels above it.

On the downside, expect support on dips while red support lines hold.

[SF Monedge]

UsdJpy began a buy cycle last Thursday which changed to a near term sell cycle as of the European session last night.  The conviction on the buy side is quite lateral this time around but there is feasibility for the pair to hold around 142.20.

[SF Monedge]

When I mention price/value magnets these are either reoccurring values or range related values of importance to large firms.  You won’t find that with an Macd it comes from experience in banking (Jay of GVI) or as a CTA.  With Yen much of that is import/export related entities, especially in the Asian session.  UsdJpy 143.20 and 142.90 are medium term cycle magnets.  If the latter is definitively compromised then look out below.  If it holds we see likely see 146 in time.

[GVI Forex 2]

US yields edging down…USD correlating

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC 4 HOUR CHART – More of the same

I wish I had something new to say other than while within a 60-65k range expect more chop.

The sideways price action since last week suggests more of the same unless 65-66K is taken out, which would open the door for 70K.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Another day, another record high

With another record high day, there is no change to:

When in unchartered record territory, resistance is only a guess so use the latest high as the only level that matters,

Otherwise, look for a strong bid if it stays above 2640, scaled down buy interest as long as it trades above 2600.

To suggest a pause, it would need a day without a new high.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – RESISTANCE?

Note that CFD price feeds can differ between broker, even those using the same symbol. Ss, look at the chart pattern if the levels below do not line up with the prices on your chart.

US500 ran into resistance at yesterday’s record high (5735 on this chart).

As I have said, there is no reason to guess at a top when in record high territory but it pays to keep an eye on the high to see if it holds.

Supports 5697, 5671

Resistance, 5735, ?

[SF Monedge]

Other value magnets for EurJpy are at 159.60 and 160.50 (note the lower area is 1/10th lower, indicating slightly stronger sell pressure overall.

[SF Monedge]

EurJpy 159, 160.20 and 161.10 are significant value magnets.  With the activity behavior as it is today, ordinarily there will be consolidation beforegunning for either of the extremities.  To this point it looks like 159 first.  To this point.

[SF Monedge]

I use a very cycle driven algorithm model.  In that model for UsdJpy the key areas are 143.10 and 144.10 (ironically) at present.  143.60 is the price magnet (at present) and is right in the middle.

I sold 143.80, I bought 143.55 and then sold 143.69.   Already out of the sell but if I see 143.40 break I will likely jump on it for 143.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 broke 5729 (see chart) briefly so far but enough to confirm what charts were already showing

[michael Calif]

for example, SP 500 futures have just run out of Time on this particular vibration,    :gtwo3

[michael Calif]

Yes

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 30 MINUTE CHART

Bounce from post-Consumer Confidence dip would need to break 5729 (red arrow) to fully negate any lingering downside risk.

[GVI Forex 2]

CME FED WATCH – ODDS OF 50BPS NOIV RATE CUT NOW 56% (56/44) AFTER WEAK CONFIDENCE DATA

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Thanks Michael… Are you saying it is based on time more than price?

[michael Calif]

Time vibration still the same, Jay    :gtwo3

[michael Calif]

no change in Time, Jay    :gtwo3

[SF Monedge]

DX 100.50 is a long standing value magnet in my model in recent times and the post data price activity bounced right off of it.  Forwards and other components are decidedly negative UsdJpy and so if that area is compromised and holds it is curtains for that pair.  If not it will likely see 100.90 in coming days.

[GVI Forex 2]

Michael, let us know if your cycle changes on the USD

[GVI Forex 2]

CB Consumer Confidence big miss on downside… stocks slip… yields dip, usd dips… good alert by SF pre-data

[SF Monedge]

Just a heads up the Advance/Decline ratio in stocks opened up schizophrenic indicating to me a lot of positions bailing pre-data and thus a bit of drop off in conviction to start anyway.

[SF Monedge]

GVI 12:43 – See that, thank you Jay

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY 1 HOUR CHART

SF, I show 161.18 as the key resistance.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD MONTHLY CHART – EXTENDING HIGH

AUDUSD extending its high to .6869, up 8% in the past 2 months.

Next target is clear at .6899 (use .6800) if .6869 is broken.

In any case, hard to chase up here but expect support below the market as long a it stays above .6800

[SF Monedge]

EurJpy 161.40 has been an ongoing value magnet in my view and one where I have keyed positions on when price activity returns there after being active at other levels.  Price failed to breach it 3 times now since Friday after pulling up from lows.  As a standalone, the pattern of participation is forming what usually amounts to a breakout uphill from there toward 163.  But that is only a pattern,  albeit an ongoing and repetitive pattern across currencies.  If not it looks like it might head for 158.

[Author]

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