Forum Replies Created
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Forex Market Snapshot
- A cautious start to the week with the dollar trading lower after not following through after closing last week on a firm note. There seems to be some relief that crude oil did not follow through on an opening week spike higher.’
- AUD is the outperformer (NZD as well) ahead of Tuesday’s RBA decision.
- EURUSD is up but only 1.156+ would fully deflect risk from the downside.
- USDJPY has backed off after pausing below the pivotal 160 level.
- Otherwise, it has been a quiet news day with the focus remaining on reaction to headlines related to the Middle East.
Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News – 16th March 2026
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ETHUSD (4HR)
Ethereum is currently testing the $2,150 resistance level after gradually recovering from its earlier downtrend. Price action has been forming higher lows along an ascending support trend line following almost similarly to February’s trend line, indicating strengthening buyer momentum
Similar to last month’s setup… a sustained breakout above $2,150 would likely signal continuation to the upside. The key question now is whether Ethereum can finally break above this level and confirm the move higher.
Trump warns of more strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island, pressures allies to secure oil chokepoint
- Summary
- Trump wants allies’ warships for Strait of Hormuz as oil prices rise’
- US, Iran reject talk of diplomatic solution – sources’
- Missile, drone strikes continue on Sunday
- Unprecedented oil market disruption unlikely to end soon
Reuters
A VERY TIMELY ARTICLE IN OUR BLOG
News Algos in Trading: Why Markets Suddenly Spike During Geopolitical Crises
- Critical island hit: President Donald Trump said the US “totally obliterated every military target” on Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports. He threatened to attack the island’s oil infrastructure if Tehran continues blocking ships from traversing the Strait of Hormuz.
- •Iran’s threat: Tehran warned it would hit regional oil facilities if its own energy infrastructure was attacked, reported state media. It also reported that no oil infrastructure on Kharg Island was damaged. CNN
I posted this soon after the war started. Since then there have been unintended consequences
The longer the war goes on the greater the risk of unintended consequences.
The law of unintended consequences states that actions—particularly policy decisions, regulations, or interventions—always have unanticipated, often negative, effects. Popularized by sociologist Robert K. Merton, this principle highlights how complex systems often produce results opposite to their intended purpose due to poor foresight and unforeseen human reactions.
Unintended consequences:
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz => Oil prices surged => Increased inflation risk => US bond yields rose => Fed rate cut expectations have been scaled back to 1 or none this year => ???
Newsquawk US Market Wrap 2
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US FX WRAP: Dollar extends on gains as Middle East war rages on
US FX WRAP: Dollar extends on gains as Middle East war rages on
NZDUSD (4HR)
The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.584, reaching its lowest level in more than seven weeks as investors became more cautious due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
NZDUSD is trading within a descending channel on the 4-hour timeframe, reflecting continued bearish momentum. The pair recently broke below a key horizontal support level near 0.5930, which has now turned into resistance and reinforced the downside pressure.
Resistance and support around 0.5800, and 0.5860.
Mood turning risk off, Oil up, USD up, stocks down… no specific news other than this headline and defense ahead of the weekend.’
‘AUDUSD (4HR)
The Australian dollar rose in Asian trading on Wednesday against a basket of global currencies, extending gains for the fourth consecutive day versus the US dollar and reaching its highest level in four years, supported by the decline of the US currency ahead of key US inflation data. However, the pair pulled back from its recent highs as the US dollar regained some strength
AUDUSD has been trading within a broad ascending channel on the 4-hour timeframe. After testing the upper boundary near 0.7150, the pair faced selling pressure and pulled back toward the middle of the structure.
The pair is currently trading near the 200-period EMA around 0.7020. Support is around 0.7000, while resistance is near 0.7080.
NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE
- Getting an early respite from a dip in crude oil but with XBRUSD back above $100 and XTIUSD at $95 ,stocks seem hard pressed to gain up momentum into the weekend.
- For that to occur, a move above 24909 would be needed (high 24787)
- Otherwise, dependent on 24378 holding to keep thoughts away from 23975.
NAS100 4 HOUR CHART
U of M Consumer Sentiment: Slight headline beat, slight expectations miss
