[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

By any standards of an already busy year, markets are digesting an awful lot of information in a very short space of time – with a Bank of Japan interest rate rise and Microsoft earnings disappointment the latest servings on the final day of July.

Morning Bid: BOJ hikes with Fed ahead, Big Tech flubs

[Mtl JP]

Officials were burned earlier this year by hotter inflation, but new risks to the labor market have helped rebuild the groundwork for cuts.
Nick Timiraos
July 30, 2024
The Outlook
Inflation and labor-market developments should allow Federal Reserve officials this week to signal that a cut is very possible at their next meeting, in September.

here is jeff with his nickle’s worth:
Here’s everything you need to know about the Fed decision coming Wednesday

***
Ps / Jerome holds a press conf after FOMC’s deed

[Mtl JP]

This yield curve-fueled recession indicator from the Fed shows a 70% probability of a recession. Here’s what its author says.

One model used at the Fed was written in 2006. Titled “the yield curve and predicting recessions,” the paper calculates recession probabilities over the next 12 months using just three variables: the 10-year yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y, the 3 month yield BX:TMUBMUSD03Mand the current federal funds rate. Right now, that indicator points to a 70% probability of a recession.

[Mtl JP]

BoJ hiked
Yen rebound / ed
that’s it for first leg

now the fearful and greedy players wait to game FOMC
coming up later today

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – 1.08 HOLDS

Headline inflation in the euro zone unexpectedly rose to 2.6% in July, the European Union’s statistics agency said Wednesday.

Core inflation, which excludes more volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, hit 2.9% in July, which was higher than expected.

The widely watched services inflation print came in at 4% for July, easing slightly from June’s 4.1% reading.(source: CNBC)

Chart shows the bounce from just below 1.08 would need to take out 1.0835-44 to puit the neutral 1.0850 level in play again.

Logic says to expect support while above 1.08 but beware of month end erratics.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 150.90

150,00 defended on first run at it,

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – STOCKS UP AHEAD OF FOMC

 

Using a CFD feed so levels may differ from other synbols (e.g. SPX500) or even a the same symbol with a different broker.

So look at 5500 as a pivoital level with a void of almost 100 pts above it.

Expect support below the market ahead of the FOMC.

Key event is FOMC, also month end flows.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDJPY WEEKLY CHART – THE BIGGEST LOSER

 

This cross continues to lead the short JPY cross (carry) trade unwind.

IN THIS CASE BOTH AUDUSD AND USDJPY ARE DOWN TODAY,

Watch USDJPY 150 as below it would probably be needed to see 96.84 (a level I have been citing) trade

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY WEEKLY CHART – BOJ SURPRISES

BOJ raises short-term policy rate to 0.25% from 0-0.1%
BOJ to halve monthly bond buying to Y3 trln in Q1 2026
Broadening wage hikes, rising services prices behind move
BOJ will keep raising rates as needed – statement (Source Reuters)

—————————————————————————————————

Stays offered while below 151.84 former double bottom

150.25 is next key support but 150 is the obvious target

Trendline is in the 148s, break would coinfirm what we already know.

145.89 is the key target if 150 is broken,

140.19 is a major target

Above 151.84-152.00 would be needed to slow the threat,

BoJ likely lurking to slow the downside, not reverse it,

 

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0827
knoc knock Res

something about head banging , thinking and learning

maybe about where to put one’s stop, how far off the Res pricepoint
nasty evil bad and ugly nigel jubbs want to know

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART

 

XAUUSD, ALREADY ABOVE ITS 2000 DAY MVA (YELLOW) IS TRYING TO ESTABLISH ABOVE THE 100 DAY (BLUE).

TO CONFIRM THE END OF THE DOWN MOVE AND CONFIRM A SHIFT TO AN UPTREND, 2432 WOULD NEED TO BE BROKEN.

IT IS NOT CLEAR YET WHETHER THE MIDDLE EASTR SITUATION WAS A CATALYST,

[Belgrade Bobby]

Economic Data Calendar – Starting tonight

[Mtl JP]

SF Monedge 5:12 / thanks you moocho !

[SF Monedge]

There was a whale order on the buy side of Gold this morning at a correlated priced of 2438.50 futures.  The delta was low enough and other metrics like forwards were strong enough to suggest it was not a hedge or profit taking.  Curves are all straight up out to Nov 26 at 2620 roughly.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

OK, we have a Clear break…finally….

Now Resistance comes at 1.08250

Supports at 1.07500 , 1.07250 & 1.06850

[SF Monedge]

Forwards in Sterling are dominant on the buy side compared to Euro being strongly tilted in favor of sellers post-data, so Sterling is remaining the favorable of the two for the buy side so far around 2810/20.

[Mtl JP]

NEXT opportunity for potential profit juicing from data calendar:
–
AU
21:30 Q2 CPI

[SF Monedge]

Post-data the transaction metrics in Euro shifted to the sell side more dominant by roughly 70%, so if the figure 8000 holds here it will really take some orders of size, quite possible it is overshoot before stabilizing for a run up, but without those orders the selling is strong.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0799

arrghh … what will it do, whiuch way will it go …
maaaa-mi maa-aah mi …

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1,0800 = Support
below: 1.0775 and 50

[Mtl JP]

Potential for some price twisting
coming up
–
10:00am:
JOLTS and
conf board consumer confidence

[GVI Forex 2]

It looks like JPY cross buying ahead of the BOJ is giving the UDSD support elsewhere.

By cross buying I mean buying JpY on its crosses (e.g. EURJPY selling).

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – MONIN AVERAGES

This chart summs it up:

XAUUSD trading within a band bounded by 100 (blue) and 200 (yellow) moving averages.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF 5 Min Chart – 15.01.2015.

This should make you think and get some perspective when there is an Important Data/News/Central Bank decision

Almost 2.000 pips in 10 minutes, with over 1.400 Pips GAP .

This kind of development will Kill not only your margin, but yours kids college fund, take your home and your panties….

So start thinking and learning NOW.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX DAILY CHART – EURUSD PROXY (57.6% of the index)

Using USDX as a EURUSD proxy, 104.76 equates to eurusd 1.0800-14 support.

Note, EURUSD appears it will break a 5 day pivot around 1.0850, which is a bearish sign and contrary to what one would expect ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorow.

Read Bobby’s eqrlier posts. He summed it up well.

[SF Monedge]

Most of my sentiments below are contra flow with orders outside of current market.

[SF Monedge]

Coming into the session I slightly prefer the sell side of Euro, the buy side more strongly in Sterling, the sell side of Yen against other pairs slightly, the buy side more strongly for Aussie, slightly prefer the buy side of Canadian vs other pairs.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

To the extent that worries about pricey tech stocks and rising AI capex spending were partly behind last week’s market shakeout, Microsoft’s quarterly update should prove a key moment later on Tuesday, just as the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting gets under way.

Morning Bid: Microsoft and job openings to hit pre-Fed vigil

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

US focus in the July 29 week will be narrowly fixed on two times: 14:00 ET on Wednesday when the FOMC releases its policy announcement and 8:30 ET on Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the July employment numbers. Markets are anticipating that the FOMC statement will set the stage for a rate cut in the near future, presumably the September 17-18 meeting. For payrolls, healthy moderate growth of 180,000 is the call.

The Bank of England will announce what is expected to be a rate cut on Thursday, while the Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday but announce its reduction schedule for bond purchases. National CPI’s in Europe begin on Tuesday and will followed by Eurozone harmonised inflation data on Wednesday.

GDP’s unfold on Tuesday with first estimates for the second quarter to open with France then Germany followed by Italy and finally the Eurozone. Marginal to modest growth is generally expected.

Japanese industrial production on Wednesday is expected to fall steeply reflecting new safety test issues in the auto industry. A sleeper in the week but a report that should never be overlooked because of its policy implications is the quarterly US employment cost index on Wednesday. A sharp fall in this index, however unlikely, could raise talk for a rate cut at that afternoon’s FOMC announcement.

 

Econoday

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Weekly

They have penetrated the Support at 1.08150, but no reaction whatsoever …

So to stop banging my head this is the realistic situation :

–          If they close this week above 1.08500 – we go Up

–          If they close this week below 1.08150 –we go Down

Simple as that.

[Author]

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