[Mtl JP]

anyone could use a good belly laugh ?

Biden’s economic adviser Jared Bernstein

[Mtl JP]

missed loading long dlrch as my laying order was a tad too low so did not get picked up

now eyeballing short euro here at 1.077ish butting against some converging MA Res on the daily. puppy will likely need to breach 1.0825 to reach for higher.

[GVI Forex 2]

NEXT KEY EVENT RISK’

AUSTRALIA (RBA) RATE DECISION (04:30 GMT) – SEE DETAILED PREVIEW

AUSTRALIA (RBA) RATE DECISION (04:30 GMT) – SEE DETAILED PREVIEW

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nvidia – Going for a triple top or….

[SF Monedge]

UsdChf sell side looks decent in Asia tonight for a few pips.  Overall picture is different.  See it long as mentioned earlier for higher ground inevitably.

[michael Calif]

Option Profile originally went SHORT Gold futures above 2400, and remains so

[GVI Forex 2]

SEE WHETHER YOU SAY YES/NO TO ANY OF  THE QUESTIONS ON THIS SELF-EVALUATION TRADING  CHECKLIST

Help! Why Can’t I Make Money Trading?

 

Help! Why Can’t I Make Money Trading?

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HoUR CHART

On this chart, 2291 NEEDS to hold as support followed by a firm break of 2328 would be needed to put 2352 in play again

On the downside, 2291 needs to hold to keep a bid under the market, and thoughts of the 2277 low at bay.

The bottom line, the low is not yet confirmed and only would be if 2328 is firmly taken out.

[Mtl JP]

Tom Barkin

Navigating Data Whiplash
https://www.richmondfed.org/press_room/speeches/thomas_i_barkin/2024/barkin_speech_20240506

[SF Monedge]

Looking like EurChf wants to fill the gap at 9800 in time.

[Mtl JP]

US 10-YR 4.50% UNCH
ahead of two voter yakkers at top of hour
–
likely to diagnose and maybe prognose on policy outlook post-jobs data

[SF Monedge]

For novices – there is a nice trendline from last weeks low in AudUsd that value is resting on at around 6620, and since Aud has good fundamental one might argue it would move higher.  You must pay attention to the bigger picture though.  If you look at larger time frames of analysis, 6660 could end up being a solid resistance area for bulls.  AND it has the mark of the beast on it!

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 30 MINUTE CHART

Trades bearish while below 1,3697 but trapped as long as it stays above 1.3647  (Power of 50) level.

Looking at major levels (daily chart) they do not come in until the mid-1.35s and resistance in the 1.37s.

 

 

[SF Monedge]

See EurJpy 167 and possibly 168 being revisited in coming days as a likelyhood.

[SF Monedge]

I wouldn’t think of selling equities until OEX options gets to around 2480 and its important to realize that Chinese equities have a tailwind that appears likely to stick based on the profile of inflows.  That means odds are stacked to buy USD when it gets there.  Maybe a day or two.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY 4 HOUR CHART

EURJPY correcting off the 164.00 intervention led low. This is the key level on the downside but only a move back above 167.38 would confirm a near-term low is in.

These are the key levels on this chart, anything in between is just minor.

Note, BoJ interventions, at a minimum, have restored a two-way risk although it has been in USDJPY and not on JPY crosses.

[GVI Forex 2]

Michael can yoiu email me pols tks [email protected]

[michael Calif]

…  just for input , Option Profile on USD futures remaions SHORT as it declines from 106.00

[Mtl JP]

Monedge / I tend to agree.
dlr has likely caught a bit of a cold and is likely to remain on the defensive as players currently co-opt and game their perception of Fed’s outlook

[SF Monedge]

Appears to me UsdJpy might sag toward 153 from here before attempting to find value around 156 again.  Us stock internal flows are positive but a bit sideways today, so the conviction is muted, which usually translates to weak but muted sell side bias for Usd in my experience.

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.504
apparently “slip” as hope (haha) for FED rate cuts increases after latest us jobs data (cnbc)

so players not heeding goolsbee’s (gentle ?) hint and so are now pricing a 25bps cut in sept and so we are now gaming relative yields (ie. spreads)

Not much of potential moving consequence this week
voter barkin and voter Williams are yakking little later today

follows Loan Officers Survey after

[michael Calif]

Nasdaq Option Profile remains SHORT during this 5 wave bounce bact to 1800000 . expecting lower prices

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD Daily

Imagine placing a Stopp Loss 😀 I can’t…

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nasdaq 4H

Above 18.000 or a Correction ?

[SF Monedge]

I am impressed with the durability of Bitcoin to sustain waves of apprehension before and after the “halving.”  Enthusiasts were sure it would cause the not-yet viable instrument which is a not-yet viable asset to bolt to 100,000.  Seeing how the non-instrument is the most ripe non-instrument for fraud and crime, such as terrorist money being transferred without roadblocks, one might expect the next major case of fraud similar to the FTX matter to cause some strong decline into the 30,000 area.  Would like to see that as I would put money into it again down there if so.  At this point it appears the 50,000 area might hold for a while.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4H

1.07500 held overnight, and now we have 1.08150 & 1.08250 in sights.

[Mtl JP]

a show: dog stepping on the tail – and the meaning ….. https://www.axios.com/2024/05/05/israel-us-ammunition-shipment-hold – maybe
–
maybe last Friday’s goolsbee interview was meaningful to peasant traders.
with reference to the jobs print and player ethusiastic reaction:
… one thing is daytrader timetable reaction but the FED marches to economic timetable …
—
as if pre-planned … two FED suits on yak deck on FED’s policy

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Dhara Ranasinghe.

The relief across world markets as signs of a softening in the U.S. jobs markets strengthens the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts to start later this year remains palpable.

Not only did U.S. 10-year Treasury yields end Friday down 17 basis points , in their biggest weekly drop of the year, but the S&P 500 stock index had its best day in over two months.

Morning Bid: Relief (mostly) everywhere

[GVI Forex 2]

GBUSD 15 minute CHART – Better bid but consolidating

GBPUSD is a bit of an outperformer so far today (note firmer GBPJPY_ but consolidating with the UK closed today for a holiday/.

As this chart shows, there are layers of support ahead of the pivotal 1.25 level with key resistance above 1.26 (Friday’s high).

This suggests little to go for within a 1.25-1.26 range other than intra-day levels as show on this chart.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – CONSOLIDATING

EURUSD has so far traded in a tight range as it consolidates below Friday’s 1.0812 post-USjobs report high.

A key level to keeping a bid is to stay above the 1.0752 mini breakout level (Power of “50”) with support at 1.0724 below it.

On the upside, the key level is obvious at 1.0812 as only above it would add legs to the upside.

[Author]

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