[GVI Forex 2]

USDX 4 HOUR CHART – PROXY FOR THE EURUSD?

With the EURUSD representing 57.6% of the US Dollar Index (USDX), this index can at times be used as a proxy for what is seen on a EURUSD chart.

In this USDX chart, momentum is trying to build to the upside that needs to take out 105.10 to indicate an end to this latest leg to the downside.

Re EURUSD, this was posted by Michael Caif yesterday

May 21, 2024 at 8:17 pm|
michael Calif

Option Profile now BEARISH Euro futures – any rallies should be sold

[Mtl JP]

GVI 8:13
At 1.2728 GBP is now backed off 50% of reaction to earlier inflation stickiness.
—

IF u d like chuckle:

IMF says BOE should cut bank rate by 50-75 bps this year
Traders are currently seeing two rate cuts for the BOE, with the first one currently baked in for August. But a move in June might be…
22 hours ago

BoE will consider IMF’s call for more press conferences, Bailey says
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Tuesday that the central bank would consider a proposal by the International Monetary Fund…
14 hours ago

BoE’s Bailey: Thinks Next Move on Rates Will Be a Cut
BoE’s Bailey: Thinks Next Move on Rates Will Be a Cut BANK OF ENGLAND’S BAILEY SAYS HE WILL CONSIDER IMF RECOMMENDATION OF MORE MPC PRESS…
14 hours ago

LONDON, May 21 (Reuters) – Britain’s once towering inflation rate looks set to fall close to the Bank of England’s 2% target on Wednesday,…
10 hours ago

BOE Urges Markets to Prepare for Big Rise in Repo Operations
6 hours ago

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCHF 4 HOUR CHART – Underperformer but resistance looms

A tight range so far this week but USDCHF momentum is pointed up but faces layers of resistance until the .9224 high.

The significance of this level is it is a 4-week high, a break of which would be significant.

Expect support on dips as long as it stays above 9078

[Mtl JP]

DLRCHF 9130 – at previous H
next R or trgt: 9138

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPCHF WEEKLY CHART – WHAT’S HOT AND NOT?

What’s hot: GBP

What’s Not: CHF

GPBCHF trying for a breakout through the top of a range that has capped the upside since Oct 2022 at 1.1577.

In this regard, it needs to hold above 1.1577 to expose 1.1717 as the next target.

[GVI Forex 2]

UK inflation falls less than expected, dashing June rate cut hopes

See our Economic Calendar

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.2726 to maintain the breakout.

[Mtl JP]

DLRCHF 9126 – HoD 9130
–
I am embarassed – wrong 2 x in row

[Mtl JP]

I think , technically, a breakout at this time of day has low odds and 9116/18 should be tops

UNLESS … our chinese friends are offloading more of janet’s paper
and since I dont have a bead into those market subleties just go by price action and risk control

[Mtl JP]

DLRCHF 9114 ISH
at multiple top Q is will it or not bust out higher

tia for why y or ney

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4-HOUR CHART – LEVELS TO WATCH AFTER THE UK CPI  REPORT

RESISTANCE
1.2726 (no key leveks afdtrer until 1.28+)

SUPPORT
1.2696

1.2642

TRENDLINE

[Mtl JP]

she is back … janet is back and looking for a good old brawl
–
U.S. Seeks to Join Forces With Europe to Combat Excess Chinese Goods
Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen warned that China’s industrial strategy posed a global threat that requires a united response.

to NYT piece
By ALAN RAPPEPORT and LIZ ALDERMAN

[GVI Forex 2]

The key event overnight will be the release of UK CPI. It comes out before UK markets open and will be a test for GBPUSD’s recent strength.

Click below for a detailed preview.

Newsquawk Week Ahead 20-24th May: Highlights include FOMC minutes; ECB retreat; PBoC, RBNZ, CBRT rate decisions; UK, NZ CPI

Newsquawk Week Ahead 20-24th May: Highlights include FOMC minutes; ECB retreat; PBoC, RBNZ, CBRT rate decisions; UK, NZ CPI

[Mtl JP]

a whopper … courtesy wapo:
psst: not funny if you are biden voter
–
The Washington Post
Biden releases gas to tame inflation ahead of summer
The move underscored the White House’s attempts to tame consumer prices, especially with voters feeling sour on the economy.

[michael Calif]

Option Profile now BEARISH Euro futures – any rallies should be sold

[SF Monedge]

All stock market internals closed under moderate pressure.  Being long Euro holds limited potential if trading very short term.

[michael Calif]

Option Profile has reverted to NEUTRAL on Yen futures – longs have been sold

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – 2400-2450 BUT FOR HOW LONG?

tHIS CHART IS VERY CLEAR —

2450 IS THE NEW RECORD HIGH (pOWER OF 50)

2407 IS KEY SUPPORT, IF BROKEN THE 2 BLUE AT LINES WOULD INDICATE A CHANGE IN DIRECTIONAL RISK ALTHOUGH i WOULD LOOK FOR CONFIRMATION FROM A 2400 BREAK.

OTHERWISE, XAUUSD IS JUST TAKING A BREATHER AS LONG AS IT TRADES IN 2400-2450

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC WEEKLY CHART – 11 Weeks and counting

BTC made a run at its 73839 record high but stalled around 72000 and has so far been unable to sustain a move above 70000.

As I have been noting, besides the record high I prefer to look at pivotal levels like 60K, 65K, 70K/

To make a serious run at the record high 70k+ would need to become support.

Otherwise, as the chart shows, it is 11 weeks since the high was set.

[SF Monedge]

How bad is your analyst?  The S/P 500 is 90% above what the average of analysts predicted.

[SF Monedge]

Monedge views a lot of “internals” including those pertaining to stocks, not only in the US, to find a consensus of market flows.  This morning one thing catching our attention is the Nasdaq 50 index rejecting 3 months highs.  It would arguably require something strong to move Nasdaq up further this week and stick.  This translates to currencies like Euro which are quite largely risk on/off motivated.

[Mtl JP]

just raing CB hard-working communicators
–
11:45 barr – at some fireside chat
13:00 BOE’s bailey yaks
19:00 bostic moderates a panel w/collins and mester

22:00 RBNZ Official Cash Rate 22-May 5.5% 5.5%
23:00 RBNZ Governor presser post OCR

[Mtl JP]

DLRCHF 9112 +

hahaha looks like some of my degenerate trade buddies did not think so
as I m left lookin only with my tongue hanging out in envy

[SF Monedge]

Bank stocks are steadily declining following the initial grandma style climb up from the open.  Not favorable to Euro if it sticks.

[Mtl JP]

DLRCHF 9104
–
I am biased
– in favour of my wallet. think most of the run is now done

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD: TESTED KEY 1.2726 C RESISTANCE (SCROLL DOWN TO SEE THE HART POSTED EARLIER)

[Mtl JP]

DLRCHF 9090
–
testing Sup
I am biased BoD

[Mtl JP]

Canada’s consumer price index
–
* cooled to 2.7 per cent in April, down from 2.9 per cent in March, led by the slower growth of food prices, Statistics Canada said Tuesday.

CBC – basically a gov’t mouthpiece – says abaout the CPI:
– “The Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of core inflation also eased — a happy sign for the central bank, which will make its next interest rate decision on June 5.

Many economists expect that the bank will start cutting rates at that meeting.”

[Mtl JP]

GVI 01:27 / illogical eh ?

BUT that is where the retail trader can game theme of what the CB suits wish to instill into player psychie and the degeree of resistance by player collective to “assimilate” or resist assimilation.

the degree of ease (or not) of assimilation to CB gang’s theme can be reflected by a few indicators such as the name of the CB interloculator, his/her clarity of insistent communication, and flow and frequency of the messaging peddlers. Reading and interpreting the FED yakkers is science of psychology and english language communication skill. That is why “they” have some alleged whisperes around like cox or kashkari or timiraos. (who, incidentally, are not perfect as messaging interpretters)

[SF Monedge]

The monthly average of US holdings of US Treasuries by the Federal Reserve have dropped from roughly $5.7 trillion to roughly $4.6 trillion from roughly a year on year basis.  In January 2020 the holdings were roughly $2.5 trillion.  There has also been significant decrease over time of foreign buyers of bonds, especially Japan and China, with Japan having been the largest foreign buyer for some time.  It is a risk management approach, with the bonds being a guaranteed asset.

 

If I were a CTA with a long term portfolio I would be keenly watching the 4.5% mark if/when that becomes present.  It would be a significant area to either shift agendas or load up depending on which side of the fence you are on.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – FACING KEY SUPPORT

If the market was concerned about an expected sharp drop in headline UK inflation tomorrow it is showing no signs of it.

You can see by the blue AT laffer lines pointing down that EURGBP is coming in range of key support at .8526.

Key support is at .8484-.8502 below it.

Note one reason why EURUSD has been trading soft and GBPUSD bid are flows in this cross.

[Author]

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