[Mtl JP]

Besides the gaming opportunity laid out by Gordon and Holliday, I would be gobsmacked if alleged “Trump declaring the mission as “peace throughout the Middle East and indeed the world,” but the success of this effort hinges on … blablabla … ” is true.

Who in their right mind would be publicly sharing a stategic matter ?

[Mtl JP]

GVI 1:29 – here is a WSJ piece filling the gap in “flows in focus”

U.S. Races to Accomplish Iran Mission Before Munitions Run Out By Michael R. Gordon and Shelby Holliday

Trump says the Iran campaign might last a week or longer, but dwindling stockpiles could limit his options

…”Key constraints driving the urgency:

Munitions depletion: U.S. air-defense interceptors (such as THAAD, Patriot, and SM-3 systems) are being used at an unsustainable rate, with officials warning that supplies are being exhausted faster than they can be replenished.
Strategic pressure: The Pentagon is under pressure to act quickly due to the limited magazine depth of key weapons, especially Tomahawk cruise missiles (TLAMs), which are being fired at an extraordinary rate across the Middle East and in operations like those against the Houthis in Yemen.
Time-sensitive political and military calculus: The U.S. military’s top general has warned President Trump that extended operations could be unsustainable due to supply constraints. With Iran’s retaliation already underway—though less intense than in a prior 12-day conflict—U.S. forces are prioritizing the destruction of Iran’s missile launchers and airfields before their own defensive systems run out.
Additional challenges:

Allied strain: Israel, a key partner in the strikes, is also low on Arrow 3 interceptors and air-launched ballistic missiles, limiting its ability to sustain prolonged operations.
Long-term viability: Experts warn that even if Iran’s military infrastructure is degraded, the regime could rebuild its capabilities once strikes stop—raising questions about the sustainability of a “regime change” objective via air power alone.
The U.S. is now focused on achieving a decisive outcome quickly, with Trump declaring the mission as “peace throughout the Middle East and indeed the world,” but the success of this effort hinges on both the speed of strikes and the ability to maintain supply lines and industrial production.

[GVI News]

Markets hate uncertainty

BTCUSD slipping towards 65K ahead of the likely risk off opening for the week elsewhere.

[GVI Forex 2]

$100 oil? Prolonged Hormuz closure could spark a 1970s-style energy shock

• Analysts warn that a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption could push oil prices into triple digits.
• Markets are likely to price in an immediate-risk premium, analysts say.
• ‘The duration of the conflict would determine the severity of any spike, they told CNBC.
• Worst-case scenarios include Gulf infrastructure attacks and a broader regional escalation, experts say
• 

[GVI Forex 2]

Is BITCOIN attracting safe haven flows? Answier: Jury is out.

BTCUSD (BITCOIN) UPDATE

• Rebound off a higher low (62984) has broken down momentum but so far with limited follow through.
• To turn it into more than just a bounce 70K,71K and 72K would need to be broken. key obstacle being 70075.
• Meanwhile, 65K will remain pivotal while within 60K-70K

BTCUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[ST London]

LONDON – Brent crude jumped 10% to about $80 a barrel over the counter on Sunday, oil traders said, while analysts predicted that prices could climb as high as $100 after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran plunged the Middle East into a new war….Reuters

[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog

Geopolitical Crisis and Market Impact: Oil, Inflation, and Safe-Haven Flows in Focus

[Belgrade Bobby]

US-Iran-Israel war tensions spark bullish outlook for gold and silver

Gold and silver prices are gearing to reach near their January highs, bolstered by geopolitical events, especially the escalation between Iran on one side, and Israel and the US joining forces on the other, to the point of exchanging missile attacks.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Oil Set to Rise Sharply

Oil prices are set to jump sharply when trading resumes Sunday night, as unprecedented U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have intensified Middle East tensions and heightened concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies.

Prices have been supported since the start of the year by persistent geopolitical tensions.

[GVI News]

Israel says it can confirm the Ayatollah’s death

[GVI News]

Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead, senior Israeli official tells Reuters

Iran says leader is ‘firmly commanding the field’

[GVI News]

Netanyahu says “there are many signs” Iranian supreme leader is “no longer with us”

[Mtl JP]

ST Week-end opening Gaps that are related to some political yapping are different from those that are related to War Premium.

War – a business of blood and killing – carries two bad habits: its first victim is truth and its 2nd one is that it is subject to surprizes to warmoger’s hubris.

Earlier before week’s close I susggested NOK. (but did not comment cda$)

With respect to gaming War Gap on FX one probably should concider one’s own lust for and artistic trading of volatility.

Staying aside for a bit and wait for either chasing or fading is probably bit more prudent tactical approach

[GVI Forex 2]

There is buzzing on Iarael that the Ayatollah has either been severely wounded or killed… not confirmed, just a rumor

[GVI Forex 2]

The US attack on Iran has distracted attention from what will be an active economic calendar in the week ahead.

In our blog

Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights 2nd-6th March 2026

Highlights include US NFP, Retail Sales, ISM PMIs, OPEC, EZ Flash HICP, ECB Minutes and Australian GDP

[ST London]

JP are you saying sell now or buy safe havens and reassess layer?

But chasing is not a stategy when there is no place for a stop.

[Mtl JP]

St London “Brace for gaps when markets open for the week”
not the time to be dizzy

time to be raking in “war premium”

********
now some trade on the principle of being flat over the week-end
– these types will be leaving massive war premiums and be only wishing and be wistfully looking

some other types will only be scratching their heads about how exactly to “brace” for those opening gaps
– little bit like a hungover cowboy(s) looking at the barn door swinging in the air and horses far out on the horizon

good luck the “bracing”

[ST London]

Brace for gaps when markets open for the week

Oil, Gold up

Stocks down?

Chf up? usd up or not?

[GVI Forex 2]

BTCUSD (BITCOIN) UPDATE

• With Crypto the only market open, BTCUSD has taken a hit following the US led attack on Iran
• Chart levels mean little in a geopolitical crisis although so far damage is not fatal.
• Key levels: 62446 and 59886… Low so far: 62996
• Back above 66000 needed to negate the risk.

BTCUSD DAILY CHART

[GVI News]

What’s happening
• Israel and US launch strikes on Iran
• President Donald Trump says action will give Iranians a chance to topple their rulers
• Israeli official says Iran’s Supreme leader
• Ayatollah Ali Khamenei targeted
• Khamenei had been transferred to a secure location, a source says
• Iran says it struck Israeli and US bases in region
• Witnesses heard blasts in UAE and Qatar
• US and Iran had renewed negotiations and met this week
• Global airlines have cancelled flights across the Middle East

Reuters

[GVI Forex 2]

Iran crisis: Israel and US launch strikes as Trump confirms ‘major combat operations’

Israel and the U.S. launched attacks against Iran, pushing the Middle East into a renewed military confrontation as hopes faded for a diplomatic solution to Tehran’s long-running nuclear dispute with the West.

[Mtl JP]

Trump yakking now
something about protecting american people

[Mtl JP]

Bibi’s Israel launching missiles attack on Teheran
2nd wave already under attack

So far no reports of Iran sending any puppies of its own

[GVI News]

Right click on any chart or image and open in a new tab for a full screen view

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Stock Market Wrap 2: Credit risk concerns and US/Iran tensions hits risk sentiment

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Credit risk concerns and US/Iran tensions hits risk sentiment

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Trump: Iran does not want to go far emough

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Mtl JP]

1.1812
–
EURO 1.1850 bridge too far

[Mtl JP]

GVI 7:22 just by an eyecast on Brent (73.0x) NOK should be doing good

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1825 as I type
–
Res or Trgt: 1.1829

[Author]

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