[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Wrap Part 1

• SNAPSHOT: Equities, Treasuries mixed, Crude down, Dollar up, Gold down.
• REAR VIEW: Iran’s Foreign Minister said it has reached an understanding on main principles with the US, but does not mean agreement will be reached soon; Russia-Ukraine talks reportedly tense; Ukraine to reject deal that involves unilaterally withdrawal from eastern Donbas region; Fed’s Barr said outlook suggests steady rates for some time; Fed’s Daly said 75bps to go to get to neutral; UK u/e rate ticks higher; US NAHB falls short; NY Fed Mfg. Index slightly beats; Canada CPI leans soft.
• COMING UP: Holiday: Chinese Spring Festival Golden Week (17-24 Feb). Data: Australian Wage Price Index (Q4), UK CPI (Jan), US Durable Goods, Industrial Production (Jan), Housing Starts (Nov/Dec), Atlanta Fed GDP. Events: RBNZ Policy Announcement; FOMC Minutes (Jan); US-Ukraine-Russia talks to take place (17-18 Feb). Speakers: RBNZ’s Bremen; ECB’s Cipollone, Schnabel; Fed’s Bowman. Supply: Australia, Germany, US. Earnings: Analog, Carvana, DoorDash, Booking Holdings, Moody’s, Garmin, Glencore.
• WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include US PCE and GDP, FOMC Minutes, RBNZ, Flash PMIs, UK, Canadian and Japanese Inflation. Click here for the full report.

• Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• New lows (24377) followed by bounce has cooled the risk but not gone far enough to negate it and shift the focus back to 25000 and neutral.
• For this to occur, resistance at 24846 and 24911 would need to be broken,

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• New lows (24377) followed by bounce has cooled  not gone far enough to negate the risk and shift the focus back to 25000 and neutral.
• For this ton occur, resistance at 24846 and 24911 would need to be broken,

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 UPDATE

• Bounce off another sub-6800 test, even after a new low (6774) is encouraging but a break of .6869-79 is what is needed to shift the focus 6800 and a downside trisk, and back to a neutral 6900 level.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

The Ukrainian people would reject a peace deal that involves Ukraine unilaterally withdrawing from the eastern Donbas region and turning it over to Russia, Ukrainian President Zelensky told Axios

RussiaUkrainian President Zelensky says Russia’s position is absurd and may be an indication that Moscow is not ready for real peace, Sky News Arabia reports-Ukraine-

US talks on Ukraine settlement in Geneva were tense, Ria citing sources reports; Geneva talks on Ukraine settlement lasted six hours, and to be continued on Wednesday

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• Bulls not likely to give up the fight but could face another squeeze if 4800 is broken.
• Meanwhile there is a double bottom (4849) ahead of the 4841 that needs to hold for a pause  Below 4841 is a clear path for 4800.
• On the upside, above 4893 and 4907 are what is needed to build some upward momentum but only through 4925 and 4944 would negate the down risk and shift focus back to 5000.

XAUUSD  1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Cautious Fed

 FED’S BARR: WANTS TO SEE MORE EVIDENCE INFLATION EBBING TO 2% TARGET

FED’S BARR: STILL SEES ‘SIGNIFICANT RISK’ INFLATION WILL STAY OVER 2%  (X)

[GV World]

February 17 Pre-Market Earnings Release Stocks

(ETOR) Shares of eToro Group rose after the company’s fourth-quarter earnings per share beat analysts’ expectations for the quarter, despite a plunge in cryptocurrency revenue. Adjusted EPS came in at 71 cents, compared to analyst expectations of 66 cents, according to estimates compiled by FactSet

(FLR) Fluor Corporation, a global engineering, procurement, construction, and maintenance services company, reported a net loss attributable to Fluor of $1.6 billion, or ($9.87) per diluted share, primarily due to a $2 billion reduction in the valuation of its investment in NuScale

(SXC) SunCoke Energy, Inc. reported a net loss for 2025 due to significant one-time charges, with revenues and Adjusted EBITDA declining year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $219.2M, mainly due to lower Domestic Coke sales and contract changes

[Mtl JP]

USDYEN 153.65-ish

some could think (and play with) the degenerates are done having tagged 153.75

[GVI Forex 2]

A senior White House official says “Progress has been made in the talks with Iran, but there are still many details to be discussed….”, Axios’ Ravid reports

The Iranians said they would come back in the next two weeks with detailed proposals to bridge some of the gaps that remained between our positions.

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Global-View Market Update

• USD Up on the day but off highs after EURUSD held 1.1800, GBPUSD bounced from below 1.35 and USDJPY ran stops above 143.75 as bipolar mood flips back to risk on
• US stocks back with a bid in choppy trade after US500 again found support below 6800 and NAS recovered earlier losses.
• XAUUSD down sharply on the day but bounce from a 4841 low would need to regain 4900 to cool some of the risk.,
• BITCOIN in the background trading mid-way between 65K-70K
• US bond yields down
• Crude oil down on glimmer of hope from US-Iran talks

[GVI Forex 2]

[MARKET UPDATE] US equities are continuing to sell off with ES futures retreating below 6800; DXY is strengthening against its peers as EUR/USD nears 1.1800 to the downside; Brent Apr’26 dips below USD 67/bbl

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Mtl JP]

KUDOS
to all the degenerate gamers long usdyen from 153 (or even earlier and lower)
dicreet as you are

[Mtl JP]

usdyen 153.83 as I type
a petrie dish in FX stop hunting “game” 101 as 153.75-ish gets chewed

maybe – or not – time to fade the hunt

[Mtl JP]

USDYEN 153.65 as I type

some gamers maybe gunning for 153.75-ish
and then … LoL
know thy risk

[Mtl JP]

for the record:
Japan PM Takaichi holds first meeting with BOJ chief Ueda since election win
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-pm-takaichi-hold-first-meeting-with-boj-chief-ueda-since-election-win-2026-02-16/

Summary
Meeting came amid market speculation of near-term rate hike
Ueda says two discussed general economic, financial themes
Takaichi did not make any request on monetary policy, Ueda says
Ueda declines comment on whether PM consented to rate-hike plan

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• NAS continues to struggle with a bounce today failing below the bottom of 24770-24911 resistance.
• This keeps the risk on the downside where 24770+ is needed to at least postpone the current risk to 24142.
• Worth noting is that the bounce in stocks after the cash open was met with selling.

NAS100 1 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 97.341 9:48 AM EST
–
feeble – if at all – gaming opps on deck:
12:45 barr – AI and labor market
14:30 daly – AI and the economy

currently players are pricing 2 cuts in 2nd half of 26

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Holding a 2nd test of 6790 for a double bottom but needs to regain 6852+ to break momentum and shift the risk to the 6869-79 top of the current range
• Below 6852 keeps risk on the downside
• Below 6790 would expose 6730 as next support

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD and EURGBP 15 minute charts are a mirror of one another and indicate a flow that has been weighing on GBPUSD while EURUSD follows with a lag

GBPUSD

EURGBP

[GVI Forex 2]

Crude oil slips . US stocks blip up on Iran comments … (yet to hear from the US)

 Araghchi: In this round of negotiations, very serious discussions were held and there was a more constructive atmosphere. We were able to reach a general agreement on a set of guiding principles, based on which we will move forward and enter the text of the potential agreement.(X)

Iran’s Foreign Minister says we have reached understanding on main principles with the US, the two parties will welcome potential agreement documents and exchange them, does not mean an agreement will be reached soon but the path has started (Newsquiawk)

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD ticks up on tame CPI

Canadian Inflation Rate YoY (Jan) Y/Y 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.4%, Low. 2.3%, High. 2.6%)

Canadian Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jan) Y/Y 2.6% (Prev. 2.8%)

Canadian Core Inflation Rate MoM (Jan) M/M 0.2% (Prev. -0.4%)

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

 

US ADP Employment Change Weekly 10.25K (Prev. 6.5K)

 

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

US PRE-MARKET MOVERS: MASI, NCLH, FISV, INFY, AAPL, MU, GIS, CNH, GPC, WBD/NFLX/PSKY

ES -0.5% NQ -0.9% RTY -0.3%

• Mag-7: GOOGL -1.7% NVDA -1% AAPL -0.3% MSFT -0.7% META -0.6% AMZN -0.4% TSLA -0.4%
• MASI +35%: To be acquired by DHR for $180/shr; note, closed Fri. at $130.15/shr
• NCLH +8%: Elliott Investment has built a stake >10% & plans to push for changes to improve performance
• FISV +4%: Jana Partners builds stake in the Co.
• INFY +3.5%: Partners w/ Anthropic
• AAPL -0.3%: Will hold a product launch on March 4th & preparing to announce several new devices in the coming weeks
• MU -2%: WSJ article says MU is investing $200bln to expand memory-chip prod.
• GIS -3.5%: Cut annual sales & profit forecast
• CNH -5.5%: Profit light w/ disappointing FY EPS guidance
• GPC -7%: Top, bottom line light & confirmed plans to separate automotive and industrial businesses into two Cos.
• WBD sets shareholder vote date for NFLX bid on March 20th & unanimously recommends shareholders reject latest PSKY offer, but gives PSKY a week to negotiate a better deal

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

XTIUSD (WTI) UPDATE

• See to what extent crude oil acts as am indicator of how peace taka are progressing… so far firmer XTIUSD is a vote of no confidence
• Watch 63.00 (just below) and 65.00 (just above) as pivotal levels on this chart.

XTIUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Senior US official says the second round of talks with Iran has ended, Axios reports

 

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD UPDATE

In its role as the anti-dollar, EURUSD has turned on  the defensive but so far somewhat reluctantly. So let’s look at levels to watch:

• 1.1850 (pivotal bias setting level while within 1.18-1.19, also today’s high)
• 1.1833 (former support broken today, so far being pivoted after a 1.1824 low),,,. firmly below is what is needed to shift the focus to 1.18.
• Layers of support below the market: 1.1809, 1.1785, 1.1765

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI News]

Reuters Today’s Market Minute

• The U.S. and Iran will hold indirect talks in Geneva on Tuesday aimed at resolving their long-running nuclear dispute, with little clear indication of compromise as Washington masses a battle force in the region.
• The world’s most valuable tech stocks have suffered sharp declines in market value in 2026 after years of outsized gains, as investors question whether heavy spending on AI will generate sufficient returns.
• Australia’s central bank concluded inflation would stay stubbornly high if it had not hiked interest rates as it did this month, and was not yet sure if further tightening would be necessary.
• Russian oil producers could be forced to cut output as tightening pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump and European powers restricts the country’s exports, writes ROI Energy Columnist Ron Bousso.
• The world hasn’t run out of copper, despite the many warnings of imminent shortfall that have accompanied its rally to all-time highs, writes ROI Metals Columnist Andy Home.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News – 17th February 2026

• • US-Iran talks have gotten underway; the latest is that the nuclear negotiations have entered the stage of discussing technical issues, Al Jazeera reports citing Iranian TV.
  • Iran announced its readiness to reduce uranium enrichment, Al Hadath reports citing Iran’s ambassador in Cairo; added “The contradiction of the US statements is proof of its lack of seriousness in the negotiations”
  • European stocks are broadly in the green; Basic Resources weighed on by metals prices; US equity futures lower as US traders return from holiday.
  • JPY gains ground on yield differentials and some haven flows while GBP lags after the UK jobs report; DXY flat. 
  • Gilts and JGBs lead; pricing remains in favour of a BoE cut in April, but March has inched higher into Wednesday’s CPI post-unemployment/wages; USTs bid alongside global benchmarks.
  • WTI and Brent rangebound with geopols in focus.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly, NY Fed (Feb), Canadian CPI (Jan), Japanese Balance of Trade (Jan), US-Iran talks. Speakers include Fed’s Barr & Daly. Earnings from Medtronic, Leidos, Palo Alto, Cadence Design Systems, Republic Services, Vulcan Materials, Kenvue.

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY ticked back up to 153 on this headline

Japanese PM Takaichi to unveil a sweeping budgeting reform, placing strategic investments under a ringfenced multi-year framework to enhance predictability and attract private capital, Nikkei reports citing a draft

• Nikkei reprots “The draft calls for breaking with the entrenched practice of compiling budgets on the assumption that supplementary packages will follow.”

via Nikkei

• Echoes earlier reports in Japanese press. Ahead of Takaichi’s Lower House speech on Friday.

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

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