[SF Monedge]

Aud is on the back foot a bit pre-US open as are a few others in terms of flows but not necessarily strength of conviction, but that is the condition for the moment in my view.  Am interested to see what the report from Canada is at the start of the next hour with relation to business outlook survey.  Canada has been doing a fairly good job if I am not missing something.

[GVI Forex 2]

US PPIU is also due i=at 12:30 GMT

See our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD DAILY CGART – Waiting for the jobs report

8 green candles in a row…

New high 1.3779…

Needs to hold the 1.3738 breakout level to keep the focus on 1.38 and aboicve…

Below 1.3691 would be needed for an outside day

Roll the dice as CDA jovs report is up next

[GVI Forex 2]

From the Reuter Morning Bid report

But the picture encouraged doubts about whether the Fed will cut again in November, with some Fed officials clearly wavering.

The relatively hawkish Atlanta Fed boss Raphael Bostic told the Wall Street Journal he was considering a pause until the data fog lifted a bit. “Maybe we should take a pause in November. I’m definitely open to that.”

While other Fed officials indicated further easing was still in store, futures remain only just over 80% priced for another quarter point rate cut on November 7.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – DEFENSE AHEAD OF THER WEEKEND?

AS NOTED, 2600 was a key level that needed to hold to maintain a 2600-2700 range.

AS ALSO NOTED, 2624 needs to become support to shift the risk to 2650-55.

On the upside, 2650-55 would need to be renewed to put the record high back on the radar.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Even though futures pricing had already turned queasy before the sticky September inflation report on Thursday, the prospect of the Federal Reserve skipping another interest rate cut next month has now become part of the mix.

An aggravating miss on U.S. consumer price readings for last month, which saw the annual core inflation rate unexpectedly tick higher to 3.3%, was partly offset by a jump in weekly jobless claims amid distortions from recent strikes and storms.

Morning Bid: Fed ‘skip’ enters fray as big banks report

[GVI Forex 2]

US futures modestly lower as traders await earnings season and Chinese MOF update

[GVI Forex 2]

US futures modestly lower as traders await earnings season and Chinese MOF update

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART: 1.09-1.10

The bounce from 1.0900 suggests the wide range is 1.09-1.10 with the risk down unless the top end is taken out, stronger if 1.0950 becomes resistance.

For intra-day, 1.0950 remains the pivotal level with 1.0955 (yesterday’s post data high) key day resistance

Otherwise, it is hard to see big bets ahead of the weekend

[GVI Forex 2]

Monday is a government and bank holiday in the US but exchanges are open.

[GVI Forex 2]

Monday is a government and bank holiday in the US but exchanges are open.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

Friday’s session brought a cautious mood to the markets, ahead of a smattering of data and an uncomfortable weekend.

China’s finance minister has called a fiscal policy briefing for Saturday against a backdrop of high expectations and jittery trade. Investors and, as of Thursday, Swedish furniture shop IKEA want fiscal stimulus to reinvigorate the economy.

Morning Bid: Markets turn cautious before uncertain weekend

[GVI Forex 2]

Those who have followed me know how I feel about treating trading as a business and not a casino. If you treat it like a casino you will wind up like most of those who visit Las Vegas. If you treat it like a business then you have a chance to be successful.

Trading Tip: Treat Your Trading as a Business: Keep a Ledger.

[GVI Forex 2]

At first glance forex broker client sentiment reports showing net client positions seem like a useful tool.

However, when you dig deeper it raises the question whether the data should be taken at face value.

Are Forex Broker Client Position Reports Useful or Not?

1. 

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC DAILY CHART – Watch 60K

With the rally attempt fizzling, focus shift back to the downside where the daily trendline is the last hope for the bulls to keep hopes alive.

To keep it simple, 60K+ needs to be renewed to ease the rissk to the downside.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – WHEN IN UNCHARTERED TARRITORY

When in unchartered (record high) territory, big figures, such as 5800 increase in importance in the absence of any meaningful resistance.

The pause below 5800 suggets this is the level that would need to be taken out to accelerate the upside further.

On the downside, only a break of 5733 would suggest the high is in for now.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – 2600 GOLDS THE LINE

A sI have been noting, 2600 was a key level that needed to hold to maintain my call for a 2600-2700 range.

Now, 2624 needs to become support to shift the risk to 2650-55/

On the upside, 2650-55 would need to be renewed to put the record high back on the radar.

[GVI Forex 2]

SSm as I noted, Hurricane Helene likely distorted the claims number.

In fact, most data will be distorted pre-FOMC in Nov due to Hurricane Milton as well.

[SF Monedge]

August Jobless Claims came in at the worst since August 2023.  Considering the administration and their agencies hid almost a million unreported job losses in the not too distant past, I wonder what those numbers really are.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks dip met with buying…

Re EURUSD focus looking ahead to next week’s ECB meeting.

Will stay defensive as long as sub-1.0950

[SF Monedge]

Ok DX sold into the European fix so the probabilities are that is done now.

[SF Monedge]

Although Euro is getting hit with stocks I don’t prefer the long side of USD against certain pairs today such as CHF due to the brewing risk related to the Iran situation.  Better off staying on the sell side of Euro.  A sudden high impact event, which is only a matter of time now, could cause extreme safe haven flows.

[SF Monedge]

After some delay Yen futures are beginning to see more weight on the sell side with the others such as Euro.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 15 MINUTE CHART – POST DATA CANDLE

Post-US data candle 1.3015-1.3088, low would need to be taken out to expose key 1.30 support

Upside limited unless it gets back above 1.3050-65.

[SF Monedge]

Put to call ratios are decidedly down in stocks, as are advancing vs declining shares, as is the +/- volume.  At the moment.  Euro futures are still right in the middle of those algorithm parameters I mentioned below.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks opening lower…

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks opening lower…

[SF Monedge]

I’ve seen a lot of algorithms banks/fund managers use, have used, or would consider using.  At the moment on a session to session basis values across currencies are right in the middle of what would be considered extensions of buy or sell pressure.  That is regardless of if the % gain or loss is showing +/- on the pairs in relation to its star point for the week/day that begins with the Asian session.

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yields ticking back up.. especially in long end… see if there is a correlation… EURUSDD remain below 1.0950 after earlier brief blip above it.

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yields ticking back up.. disciple in long end… see if there is a correlation

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